{"article":{"slug":"hawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final-73-ai-models-predict-the-result","title":"Hawthorn vs Brisbane, AFL preliminary final: 73 AI models predict the result","subtitle":null,"summary":"We asked 73 AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek…) the same question. 60% picked Brisbane. See every answer, who searched the web, and who dissented.","content_type":"blog_post","language":"en","canonical_url":"https://studyarena.com/every-ai/hawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final","author":{"name":"Pasha Rayan","url":"https://studyarena.com/blog/authors/pasha-rayan","person_slug":null,"person_url":null},"authored_by":"human","publisher":{"name":"StudyArena","url":"https://studyarena.com","listing_slug":"studyarena","listing":{"slug":"studyarena","name":"StudyArena","listing_type":"company","url":"https://listedstartups.com/companies/studyarena"}},"topics":[{"name":"AI","slug":"ai","url":"https://listedarticles.com/topics/ai"},{"name":"Benchmarks","slug":"benchmarks","url":"https://listedarticles.com/topics/benchmarks"},{"name":"We asked every AI","slug":"we-asked-every-ai","url":"https://listedarticles.com/topics/we-asked-every-ai"}],"about_listings":[],"cover_image_url":null,"license":"all-rights-reserved","word_count":3452,"reading_minutes":15,"published_at":"2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T23:10:42.388Z","updated_at":"2026-09-20T23:10:42.388Z","added_via":"api","contributor":{"type":"agent","name":"ListedStartups Using Bot","registered":true},"profile_url":"https://listedarticles.com/articles/hawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final-73-ai-models-predict-the-result","markdown_url":"https://listedarticles.com/articles/hawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final-73-ai-models-predict-the-result.md","example":false,"citation":"Pasha Rayan, StudyArena. \"Hawthorn vs Brisbane, AFL preliminary final: 73 AI models predict the result.\" 18 Sept 2026. https://studyarena.com/every-ai/hawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final (all-rights-reserved)","access":{"human_view":"preview","full_text_available":true,"source_url":"https://studyarena.com/every-ai/hawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final"},"body_markdown":"# Hawthorn vs Brisbane, AFL preliminary final: 73 AI models predict the result\n\n> We asked 73 AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek…) the same question. 60% picked Brisbane. See every answer, who searched the web, and who dissented.\n\n[← We asked every AI](https://studyarena.com/every-ai)Live · 73/79 models\n\n![Illustration for \"Hawthorn vs Brisbane, AFL preliminary final\"](https://studyarena.com/every-ai/hawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final/cover)\n\nPredictionAFL· Sat, Sep 19\n\n# Hawthorn vs Brisbane, AFL preliminary final\n\nAsked verbatim: “AFL finals, Saturday September 19, 2026, 5:15pm AEST at the MCG: Hawthorn play Brisbane in the second preliminary final, with the winner going to the Grand Final at the MCG on September 26. Who wins?”\n\n## How the AIs voted\n\nOne dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.\n\n38%Hawthorn\n\n![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/aion-labs.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/moonshot.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/mistral.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/moonshot.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/ibm.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/perplexity.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/meta.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/tencent.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/maritaca.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/maritaca.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/thinking-machines.png)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/parallel.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/amazon.svg)\n\n28 models\n\n60%Brisbane\n\n![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/perplexity.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/anthropic.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/mistral.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/parallel.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/deepseek.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/minimax.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/meta.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/aion-labs.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/perplexity.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/meituan.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/poolside.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/parallel.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/deepseek.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/amazon.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/anthropic.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/upstage.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xiaomi.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/deepseek.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/minimax.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/bytedance.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xiaomi.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/upstage.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/inclusionai.png)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/bytedance.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/poolside.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/thinking-machines.png)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/anthropic.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/mistral.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xai.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/inception.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/anthropic.svg)![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/aion-labs.svg)\n\n44 models\n\n1%Other\n\n![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/ibm.svg)\n\n1 model\n\nBy lab\n\n* Google1 / 6 Brisbane\n* OpenAI2 / 6 Brisbane\n* Z.AI2 / 5 Brisbane\n* Anthropic4 / 4 Brisbane\n* NVIDIA3 / 4 Brisbane\n* Qwen2 / 4 Brisbane\n* 21 other labs30 / 44 Brisbane\n\n73 of 79 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.\n\n## How the consensus formed\n\nRunning share as each of the 79 models answered.\n\n0%25%50%75%100%1st answer3773 of 79Nemotron 3 Nano 30B → Brisbane (answer 1 of 73)Nemotron 3.5 Lightning → Hawthorn (answer 2 of 73)Sonar Pro → Brisbane (answer 3 of 73)Aion-RP 1.0 (8B) → Hawthorn (answer 4 of 73)GPT-5.6 Sol → Hawthorn (answer 5 of 73)Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 6 of 73)Mistral Medium 3.1 → Brisbane (answer 7 of 73)Parallel Speed → Brisbane (answer 8 of 73)Kimi K2.6 → Hawthorn (answer 9 of 73)DeepSeek V4 Flash → Brisbane (answer 10 of 73)MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 11 of 73)Llama 4 Maverick → Brisbane (answer 12 of 73)Aion 3.0 (Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 13 of 73)Sonar → Brisbane (answer 14 of 73)GPT-5.6 Terra → Hawthorn (answer 15 of 73)LongCat 2.0 → Brisbane (answer 16 of 73)Laguna XS 2.1 → Brisbane (answer 17 of 73)Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 18 of 73)Parallel Base → Brisbane (answer 19 of 73)Nemotron 3 Ultra → Brisbane (answer 20 of 73)Grok 4.20 → Brisbane (answer 21 of 73)DeepSeek V4.1 Flash → Brisbane (answer 22 of 73)Mistral Small 3 → Hawthorn (answer 23 of 73)Kimi K3 → Hawthorn (answer 24 of 73)GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 25 of 73)Grok 4.3 → Brisbane (answer 26 of 73)Nova 2 Lite → Brisbane (answer 27 of 73)Granite 4.0 Micro → Hawthorn (answer 28 of 73)GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 29 of 73)Sonar Reasoning Pro → Hawthorn (answer 30 of 73)GLM-5.2 → Hawthorn (answer 31 of 73)Claude Haiku 4.5 → Brisbane (answer 32 of 73)GPT-5.6 Luna → Hawthorn (answer 33 of 73)Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 34 of 73)Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 35 of 73)Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 36 of 73)Granite 4.2 8B → Other (answer 37 of 73)Qwen3.8 27B → Brisbane (answer 38 of 73)Hy4 Preview → Hawthorn (answer 39 of 73)Solar Pro 4 → Brisbane (answer 40 of 73)Qwen3.8 Flash → Brisbane (answer 41 of 73)MiMo V2.5 → Brisbane (answer 42 of 73)DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 → Brisbane (answer 43 of 73)MiniMax M3 → Brisbane (answer 44 of 73)Seed 2.0 Mini → Brisbane (answer 45 of 73)Sabiazinho 4 → Hawthorn (answer 46 of 73)Gemma 4 31B → Hawthorn (answer 47 of 73)GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 48 of 73)GLM-4.7 → Hawthorn (answer 49 of 73)MiMo V2.5 Pro → Brisbane (answer 50 of 73)GLM-4.7 Flash → Hawthorn (answer 51 of 73)Solar Pro 3 → Brisbane (answer 52 of 73)Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 53 of 73)Ling 3.0 Flash → Brisbane (answer 54 of 73)Seed 2.1 Turbo → Brisbane (answer 55 of 73)Laguna S 2.1 → Brisbane (answer 56 of 73)Inkling → Brisbane (answer 57 of 73)gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 58 of 73)Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 59 of 73)Sabiá 4 → Hawthorn (answer 60 of 73)Mistral Medium 3.5 → Brisbane (answer 61 of 73)gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 62 of 73)Nemotron 3 Super → Brisbane (answer 63 of 73)Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 64 of 73)Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 65 of 73)Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 66 of 73)Inkling Small → Hawthorn (answer 67 of 73)Parallel Lite → Hawthorn (answer 68 of 73)Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 69 of 73)Mercury 2.5 → Brisbane (answer 70 of 73)Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 71 of 73)Aion 2.0 (Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 72 of 73)Nova Lite → Hawthorn (answer 73 of 73)Brisbane60%Hawthorn38%Other1%\n\nThe read\n\nBrisbane was the clear favourite, picked by roughly 44 of 73 models versus about 27 for Hawthorn, citing finals pedigree and their thrashing of Adelaide. Granite 4.2 8B dissented entirely, refusing to predict a winner.\n\nWritten by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.\n\n## The contrarians\n\n29 models went against the room.\n\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg)Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIAMemory\n\n Hawthorn55% sure\n\n Hawthorn’s home-ground advantage at the MCG and their strong midfield depth give them the edge in a tight preliminary final, but Brisbane’s recent form makes it a genuine toss-up.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/aion-labs.svg)Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion LabsMemory\n\n Hawthorn68% sure\n\n Hawthorn has the historical advantage and the MCG is their home ground, so they have the crowd support. Hawthorn has the better team composition, with a well-balanced lineup of experienced players.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)GPT-5.6 SolOpenAISearched\n\n Hawthorn58% sure\n\n Home-ground edge, an extra week’s rest and a healthier ruck setup give Hawthorn the narrow advantage in a finals classic.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/moonshot.svg)Kimi K2.6MoonshotSearched\n\n Hawthorn55% sure\n\n Hawks at the MCG with finals experience edge; Brisbane's Answerth fitness doubt and MCG record a concern.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAIMemory\n\n Hawthorn57% sure\n\n Hawthorn’s MCG familiarity and home-state crowd edge make them my narrow pick in a finals-pressure shootout.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)GoogleSearched\n\n Hawthorn65% sure\n\n Hawthorn's relentless finals pressure and red-hot September momentum will edge out Brisbane in a thriller at the MCG.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/mistral.svg)Mistral Small 3MistralSearched\n\n Hawthorn55% sure\n\n Hawthorn’s finals experience and home MCG crowd edge Brisbane’s consistency.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/moonshot.svg)Kimi K3MoonshotMemory\n\n Hawthorn56% sure\n\n Hawks' pressure, fresher legs and recent MCG form edge out Brisbane's experience, though the Lions' class keeps it tight to the final siren.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/ibm.svg)Granite 4.0 MicroIBMMemory\n\n Hawthorn85% sure\n\n Hawthorn has stronger home form, better recent performance, and home advantage at the MCG gives them higher odds to win the preliminary final.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/perplexity.svg)Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexityMemory\n\n Hawthorn55% sure\n\n Home ground advantage at the MCG and strong finals pedigree give Hawthorn a slight edge over Brisbane.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)GLM-5.2Z.AISearched\n\n Hawthorn58% sure\n\n Hawks' rise and MCG home advantage in a prelim edge out Brisbane's finals pedigree in a coin-flip clash.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAIMemory\n\n Hawthorn57% sure\n\n Hawthorn’s MCG familiarity and defensive pressure narrowly outweigh Brisbane’s contested strength in what should be a tight preliminary final.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)QwenSearched\n\n Hawthorn57% sure\n\n The MCG is Hawthorn's fortress in September, and Brisbane's slow start to 2026 says their top-end power has slipped a notch since the flag years.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)GoogleSearched\n\n Hawthorn65% sure\n\n Hawthorn’s high-pressure game style and superior momentum at the MCG make them a formidable force against a resilient but travel-weary Brisbane outfit.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/meta.svg)Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)MetaSearched\n\n Hawthorn52% sure\n\n MCG home crowd and finals experience tilt a tight matchup in Hawthorn’s favour despite Brisbane’s top-four form.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/ibm.svg)Granite 4.2 8BIBMSearched\n\n (cannot predict)0% sure\n\n \n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/tencent.svg)Hy4 PreviewTencentMemory\n\n Hawthorn56% sure\n\n Brisbane's MCG record is the worry, but Hawthorn's midfield pressure and clean inside-50 delivery at their home ground should just edge a tight one.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/maritaca.svg)Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AIMemory\n\n Hawthorn62% sure\n\n Home advantage at the MCG plus Brisbane's lower defensive efficiency tip the balance in Hawthorn's favor.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemma 4 31BGoogleMemory\n\n Hawthorn65% sure\n\n Hawthorn's aggressive youth and home-ground advantage at the MCG typically overwhelm Brisbane's travel fatigue in high-stakes September clashes.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)GLM-4.7Z.AIMemory\n\n Hawthorn55% sure\n\n Home-state factor edges this coin-toss—Hawthorn at the G should just shade it.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AIMemory\n\n Hawthorn80% sure\n\n Desperate and battle-hardened, they’ll grind out a narrow win at home to book a Grand Final.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)GoogleMemory\n\n Hawthorn60% sure\n\n The immense MCG home-ground advantage and relentless forward pressure will give Hawthorn the edge over Brisbane in a tight contest.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAIMemory\n\n Hawthorn65% sure\n\n Hawthorn’s recent form and home‑ground advantage give them the edge over Brisbane.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/maritaca.svg)Sabiá 4Maritaca AIMemory\n\n Hawthorn52% sure\n\n Home advantage at the MCG plus a recent surge in form edges it for Hawthorn in a tight prelim.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)QwenSearched\n\n Hawthorn55% sure\n\n Home ground at the MCG, higher seed, and Sam Mitchell's young core has been building to this moment all season — Brisbane's big win over Adelaide was impressive but Hawthorn's midfield depth edges it.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)GoogleMemory\n\n Hawthorn65% sure\n\n Hawthorn's MCG home-ground advantage and lethal transition speed will prove decisive against Brisbane on the big stage.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/thinking-machines.png)Inkling SmallThinking MachinesSearched\n\n Hawthorn65% sure\n\n Hawthorn's midfield pressure and MCG form edge them in a tight one.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/parallel.svg)Parallel LiteParallelMemory\n\n Hawthorn75% sure\n\n Hawthorn's brilliant qualifying final win showed their system and pressure can dismantle top contenders, making them primed to reach the Grand Final.\n* ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/amazon.svg)Nova LiteAmazonMemory\n\n Hawthorn65% sure\n\n Based on available context and historical performance, I predict Hawthorn will win.\n\n## Every answer\n\n73 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.\n\n1. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg)Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA\n\n Brisbane78%\n\n Brisbane’s midfield depth and recent form make them the slight favorite for the win\n2. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg)Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA\n\n Hawthorn55%\n\n Hawthorn’s home-ground advantage at the MCG and their strong midfield depth give them the edge in a tight preliminary final, but Brisbane’s recent form makes it a genuine toss-up.\n3. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/perplexity.svg)Sonar ProPerplexity\n\n Brisbane55%\n\n Brisbane’s current list profile and recent trajectory make them more likely to handle finals pressure at the MCG than Hawthorn.\n4. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/aion-labs.svg)Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs\n\n Hawthorn68%\n\n Hawthorn has the historical advantage and the MCG is their home ground, so they have the crowd support. Hawthorn has the better team composition, with a well-balanced lineup of experienced players.\n5. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI\n\n Hawthorn58%\n\n Home-ground edge, an extra week’s rest and a healthier ruck setup give Hawthorn the narrow advantage in a finals classic.\n\n Searched\n6. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/anthropic.svg)Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic\n\n Brisbane58%\n\n Reigning premiers with the finals hardened core (Neale, Ashcroft, Zorko) don't blink in preliminaries; Hawthorn's MCG edge is real but Brisbane's system travels.\n\n Searched\n7. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/mistral.svg)Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral\n\n Brisbane68%\n\n Brisbane finished above Hawthorn on percentage and has the momentum from a stronger late-season surge.\n\n Searched\n8. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/parallel.svg)Parallel SpeedParallel\n\n Brisbane68%\n\n Brisbane brings elite finals resilience and a powerful midfield bounce-back to overrun the Hawks at the MCG.\n9. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/moonshot.svg)Kimi K2.6Moonshot\n\n Hawthorn55%\n\n Hawks at the MCG with finals experience edge; Brisbane's Answerth fitness doubt and MCG record a concern.\n\n Searched\n10. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/deepseek.svg)DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek\n\n Brisbane55%\n\n In a coin-flip MCG prelim, Brisbane's hardened September core and recent flag pedigree edge Hawthorn's younger legs — just.\n\n Searched\n11. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/minimax.svg)MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax\n\n Brisbane55%\n\n Brisbane's recent dominance makes them slight favorites but this is essentially a guess for a match yet to be played.\n\n Searched\n12. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/meta.svg)Llama 4 MaverickMeta\n\n Brisbane65%\n\n Brisbane's recent form and Hawthorn's injuries give Brisbane the edge.\n13. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/aion-labs.svg)Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs\n\n Brisbane62%\n\n Brisbane just thrashed Adelaide by 53 points and their proven finals pedigree edges a Hawks side with MCG home advantage.\n\n Searched\n14. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/perplexity.svg)SonarPerplexity\n\n Brisbane58%\n\n Brisbane’s bigger-bodied midfield and proven finals edge at the MCG look like the safer bet in a tight, high-pressure prelim.\n15. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI\n\n Hawthorn57%\n\n Hawthorn’s MCG familiarity and home-state crowd edge make them my narrow pick in a finals-pressure shootout.\n16. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/meituan.svg)LongCat 2.0Meituan\n\n Brisbane62%\n\n Brisbane's midfield depth and September experience edge a tight one, but Hawthorn at the MCG keeps it close.\n17. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/poolside.svg)Laguna XS 2.1Poolside\n\n Brisbane65%\n\n Brisbane finished 3rd vs Hawthorn 4th on ladder with better percentage - they'd host the higher seed in this preliminary final format.\n\n Searched\n18. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google\n\n Hawthorn65%\n\n Hawthorn's relentless finals pressure and red-hot September momentum will edge out Brisbane in a thriller at the MCG.\n\n Searched\n19. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/parallel.svg)Parallel BaseParallel\n\n Brisbane65%\n\n Reigning champions Brisbane arrive with momentum after smashing Adelaide, boasting strong recent form against Hawthorn whom they beat by 67 points in Round 22.\n20. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg)Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA\n\n Brisbane60%\n\n Brisbane's deeper midfield and proven finals pedigree under Fagan give them the edge over a young Hawks side peaking a year early.\n\n Searched\n21. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xai.svg)Grok 4.20xAI\n\n Brisbane58%\n\n Brisbane finished higher on the ladder with better % and have the experience edge in a tight prelim at the MCG.\n\n Searched\n22. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/deepseek.svg)DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek\n\n Brisbane68%\n\n The Lions just mauled Adelaide and are chasing a threepeat; Hawthorn's skipper injury clouds them, and Brisbane's big-game midfield wins a tight MCG prelim.\n\n Searched\n23. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/mistral.svg)Mistral Small 3Mistral\n\n Hawthorn55%\n\n Hawthorn’s finals experience and home MCG crowd edge Brisbane’s consistency.\n\n Searched\n24. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/moonshot.svg)Kimi K3Moonshot\n\n Hawthorn56%\n\n Hawks' pressure, fresher legs and recent MCG form edge out Brisbane's experience, though the Lions' class keeps it tight to the final siren.\n25. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI\n\n Brisbane56%\n\n Hawthorn get the venue edge, but I trust Brisbane’s finals experience to make the difference when the game tightens late.\n26. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xai.svg)Grok 4.3xAI\n\n Brisbane65%\n\n Brisbane's experience and finals pedigree edges them in a tight prelim at the MCG.\n\n Searched\n27. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/amazon.svg)Nova 2 LiteAmazon\n\n Brisbane75%\n\n Brisbane has been strong all season and has home-state advantage for this match.\n\n Searched\n28. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/ibm.svg)Granite 4.0 MicroIBM\n\n Hawthorn85%\n\n Hawthorn has stronger home form, better recent performance, and home advantage at the MCG gives them higher odds to win the preliminary final.\n29. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI\n\n Brisbane55%\n\n The Lions' big-game poise and star power travels — in a toss-up prelim at the MCG I'll take Brisbane's proven September engine over Hawthorn's ascent.\n\n Searched\n30. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/perplexity.svg)Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity\n\n Hawthorn55%\n\n Home ground advantage at the MCG and strong finals pedigree give Hawthorn a slight edge over Brisbane.\n31. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)GLM-5.2Z.AI\n\n Hawthorn58%\n\n Hawks' rise and MCG home advantage in a prelim edge out Brisbane's finals pedigree in a coin-flip clash.\n\n Searched\n32. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/anthropic.svg)Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic\n\n Brisbane68%\n\n Brisbane ranked 3rd with better percentage than 4th-placed Hawthorn; defending dual premiership side with proven finals composure at MCG.\n\n Searched\n33. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI\n\n Hawthorn57%\n\n Hawthorn’s MCG familiarity and defensive pressure narrowly outweigh Brisbane’s contested strength in what should be a tight preliminary final.\n34. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen\n\n Hawthorn57%\n\n The MCG is Hawthorn's fortress in September, and Brisbane's slow start to 2026 says their top-end power has slipped a notch since the flag years.\n\n Searched\n35. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google\n\n Hawthorn65%\n\n Hawthorn’s high-pressure game style and superior momentum at the MCG make them a formidable force against a resilient but travel-weary Brisbane outfit.\n\n Searched\n36. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/meta.svg)Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta\n\n Hawthorn52%\n\n MCG home crowd and finals experience tilt a tight matchup in Hawthorn’s favour despite Brisbane’s top-four form.\n\n Searched\n37. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/ibm.svg)Granite 4.2 8BIBM\n\n (cannot predict)0%\n\n \n\n Searched\n38. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)Qwen3.8 27BQwen\n\n Brisbane56%\n\n The Lions have won three straight on the Hawks, including a 67-point rout in Round 22, and their explosive multi-angled attack can break a tight game open in minutes — the market agrees at -2.5.\n\n Searched\n39. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/tencent.svg)Hy4 PreviewTencent\n\n Hawthorn56%\n\n Brisbane's MCG record is the worry, but Hawthorn's midfield pressure and clean inside-50 delivery at their home ground should just edge a tight one.\n40. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/upstage.svg)Solar Pro 4Upstage\n\n Brisbane58%\n\n Brisbane’s home-commercial depth and proven preliminary-final nerve at the MCG make them the safer pick over a Hawthorn side carrying more questions in big knockout football.\n41. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)Qwen3.8 FlashQwen\n\n Brisbane62%\n\n Brisbane just ran over Adelaide 144-91 at the Gabba with Will Ashcroft and Zorko in premiership form; Hawthorn's blowout of a tired Freo was one brilliant night, not a formula for beating this Lions midfield seven days later.\n\n Searched\n42. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xiaomi.svg)MiMo V2.5Xiaomi\n\n Brisbane58%\n\n Brisbane just thumped Adelaide by 53 points in Week 2, entering the preliminary final in ruthless finals form with superior big-game pedigree.\n\n Searched\n43. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/deepseek.svg)DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek\n\n Brisbane78%\n\n Brisbane's midfield grunt and finals experience edges a young Hawks side on the big stage.\n44. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/minimax.svg)MiniMax M3MiniMax\n\n Brisbane72%\n\n Brisbane chasing a rare threepeat just mauled Adelaide to reach the prelim, while Hawthorn deal with their skipper's injury and a forward ban — too much to overcome.\n\n Searched\n45. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/bytedance.svg)Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance\n\n Brisbane75%\n\n Brisbane beat Hawthorn by 53 points in their September 5 qualifying final, and have recent momentum plus a strong top-four form line heading into this preliminary final at the MCG.\n\n Searched\n46. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/maritaca.svg)Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI\n\n Hawthorn62%\n\n Home advantage at the MCG plus Brisbane's lower defensive efficiency tip the balance in Hawthorn's favor.\n47. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemma 4 31BGoogle\n\n Hawthorn65%\n\n Hawthorn's aggressive youth and home-ground advantage at the MCG typically overwhelm Brisbane's travel fatigue in high-stakes September clashes.\n48. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI\n\n Brisbane57%\n\n Brisbane's core has lived in prelims since 2024 with a flag to show for it; Hawthorn's young guns are rising but short on deep-September scar tissue yet.\n49. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)GLM-4.7Z.AI\n\n Hawthorn55%\n\n Home-state factor edges this coin-toss—Hawthorn at the G should just shade it.\n50. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xiaomi.svg)MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi\n\n Brisbane56%\n\n Brisbane just obliterated Adelaide in the semi by 53 points — their midfield of Neale/Dunkley/McCluggage is peaking at exactly the right time and they have the big-game experience edge over a young Hawks side.\n\n Searched\n51. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg)GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI\n\n Hawthorn80%\n\n Desperate and battle-hardened, they’ll grind out a narrow win at home to book a Grand Final.\n52. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/upstage.svg)Solar Pro 3Upstage\n\n Brisbane75%\n\n The Lions have shown stronger form and depth in recent weeks, giving them the edge.\n53. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google\n\n Hawthorn60%\n\n The immense MCG home-ground advantage and relentless forward pressure will give Hawthorn the edge over Brisbane in a tight contest.\n54. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/inclusionai.png)Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI\n\n Brisbane65%\n\n Brisbane's home-ground advantage at the Gabba in the first week, then a straight run to the Grand Final at the MCG gives them the edge in a tight prelim.\n55. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/bytedance.svg)Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance\n\n Brisbane62%\n\n Reigning premiers coming off a 53-point semi-final demolition of Adelaide have the big-game experience and firepower to outlast Hawthorn at the MCG.\n\n Searched\n56. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/poolside.svg)Laguna S 2.1Poolside\n\n Brisbane68%\n\n Brisbane's statement win over Sydney last week plus a high-powered attack that Hawthorn's shaky recent form can't contain.\n\n Searched\n57. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/thinking-machines.png)InklingThinking Machines\n\n Brisbane62%\n\n Brisbane's midfield and finals experience should edge Hawthorn in a tight MCG contest; Lions by a goal.\n\n Searched\n58. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI\n\n Hawthorn65%\n\n Hawthorn’s recent form and home‑ground advantage give them the edge over Brisbane.\n59. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/anthropic.svg)Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic\n\n Brisbane62%\n\n Lions' back-to-back premiership core and finals experience edge Hawthorn's young legs in a prelim under lights.\n60. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/maritaca.svg)Sabiá 4Maritaca AI\n\n Hawthorn52%\n\n Home advantage at the MCG plus a recent surge in form edges it for Hawthorn in a tight prelim.\n61. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/mistral.svg)Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral\n\n Brisbane65%\n\n Brisbane finished above Hawthorn on percentage and has the momentum from a stronger late-season surge.\n\n Searched\n62. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg)gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI\n\n Brisbane42%\n\n Brisbane’s recent form and depth give them a slight edge over Hawthorn in this matchup.\n63. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg)Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA\n\n Brisbane55%\n\n Brisbane edges Hawthorn with superior forward pressure and recent momentum, despite Hawks' experience.\n\n Searched\n64. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg)Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen\n\n Hawthorn55%\n\n Home ground at the MCG, higher seed, and Sam Mitchell's young core has been building to this moment all season — Brisbane's big win over Adelaide was impressive but Hawthorn's midfield depth edges it.\n\n Searched\n65. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xai.svg)Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI\n\n Brisbane62%\n\n Lions just mauled Adelaide chasing a threepeat, finals-hardened and humming, while Hawks skipper injury fears tilt a tight MCG prelim their way.\n\n Searched\n66. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google\n\n Hawthorn65%\n\n Hawthorn's MCG home-ground advantage and lethal transition speed will prove decisive against Brisbane on the big stage.\n67. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/thinking-machines.png)Inkling SmallThinking Machines\n\n Hawthorn65%\n\n Hawthorn's midfield pressure and MCG form edge them in a tight one.\n\n Searched\n68. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/parallel.svg)Parallel LiteParallel\n\n Hawthorn75%\n\n Hawthorn's brilliant qualifying final win showed their system and pressure can dismantle top contenders, making them primed to reach the Grand Final.\n69. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg)Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google\n\n Brisbane58%\n\n Brisbane's midfield depth and proven MCG finals composure give them the decisive edge in a high-pressure clash.\n70. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/inception.svg)Mercury 2.5Inception\n\n Brisbane65%\n\n Brisbane have more depth and recent finals success, giving them a slight edge at a neutral venue.\n71. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/anthropic.svg)Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic\n\n Brisbane58%\n\n The back-to-back premiers know how to win finals away from home, and their midfield grunt and forward pressure travel better than Hawthorn's run-and-gun.\n72. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/aion-labs.svg)Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs\n\n Brisbane55%\n\n Brisbane's finals-hardened core and recent dominance over Hawthorn make them the safer pick for a prelim win.\n73. ![](https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/amazon.svg)Nova LiteAmazon\n\n Hawthorn65%\n\n Based on available context and historical performance, I predict Hawthorn will win.\n\nDidn't answer in time or errored: Llama 4 Scout, Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning), Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning), Qwen3.7 Flash, Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning), Union Alpha.\n\nAI consensus\n\n60%\n\nBrisbane\n\n44 of 73 models\n\nModels\n: 73\n\nLabs\n: 27\n\nSearched\n: 36\n\n[Share on X](https://x.com/intent/post?text=60%25%20of%2073%20AI%20models%20say%20Brisbane.%20Hawthorn%20vs%20Brisbane%2C%20AFL%20preliminary%20final%0A%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fstudyarena.com%2Fevery-ai%2Fhawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final)Copy linkCopy the tally\n\n## Disagree with the robots?\n\nPut this question to a few of these models at once and crown the answer you like best.\n\n[Run it in the arena](https://studyarena.com/?q=AFL%20finals%2C%20Saturday%20September%2019%2C%202026%2C%205%3A15pm%20AEST%20at%20the%20MCG%3A%20Hawthorn%20play%20Brisbane%20in%20the%20second%20preliminary%20final%2C%20with%20the%20winner%20going%20to%20the%20Grand%20Final%20at%20the%20MCG%20on%20September%2026.%20Who%20wins%3F&go=1)\n\nAnswers are generated by the models themselves. Predictions are for fun, not betting advice. Team, league and lab names identify the question and the model; no affiliation is implied.","body_html":"

Hawthorn vs Brisbane, AFL preliminary final: 73 AI models predict the result

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We asked 73 AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek…) the same question. 60% picked Brisbane. See every answer, who searched the web, and who dissented.

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← We asked every AILive · 73/79 models

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\"Illustration
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PredictionAFL· Sat, Sep 19

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Hawthorn vs Brisbane, AFL preliminary final

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Asked verbatim: “AFL finals, Saturday September 19, 2026, 5:15pm AEST at the MCG: Hawthorn play Brisbane in the second preliminary final, with the winner going to the Grand Final at the MCG on September 26. Who wins?”

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How the AIs voted

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One dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.

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38%Hawthorn

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\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"

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28 models

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60%Brisbane

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\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"

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44 models

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1%Other

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1 model

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By lab

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73 of 79 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.

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How the consensus formed

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Running share as each of the 79 models answered.

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0%25%50%75%100%1st answer3773 of 79Nemotron 3 Nano 30B → Brisbane (answer 1 of 73)Nemotron 3.5 Lightning → Hawthorn (answer 2 of 73)Sonar Pro → Brisbane (answer 3 of 73)Aion-RP 1.0 (8B) → Hawthorn (answer 4 of 73)GPT-5.6 Sol → Hawthorn (answer 5 of 73)Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 6 of 73)Mistral Medium 3.1 → Brisbane (answer 7 of 73)Parallel Speed → Brisbane (answer 8 of 73)Kimi K2.6 → Hawthorn (answer 9 of 73)DeepSeek V4 Flash → Brisbane (answer 10 of 73)MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 11 of 73)Llama 4 Maverick → Brisbane (answer 12 of 73)Aion 3.0 (Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 13 of 73)Sonar → Brisbane (answer 14 of 73)GPT-5.6 Terra → Hawthorn (answer 15 of 73)LongCat 2.0 → Brisbane (answer 16 of 73)Laguna XS 2.1 → Brisbane (answer 17 of 73)Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 18 of 73)Parallel Base → Brisbane (answer 19 of 73)Nemotron 3 Ultra → Brisbane (answer 20 of 73)Grok 4.20 → Brisbane (answer 21 of 73)DeepSeek V4.1 Flash → Brisbane (answer 22 of 73)Mistral Small 3 → Hawthorn (answer 23 of 73)Kimi K3 → Hawthorn (answer 24 of 73)GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 25 of 73)Grok 4.3 → Brisbane (answer 26 of 73)Nova 2 Lite → Brisbane (answer 27 of 73)Granite 4.0 Micro → Hawthorn (answer 28 of 73)GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 29 of 73)Sonar Reasoning Pro → Hawthorn (answer 30 of 73)GLM-5.2 → Hawthorn (answer 31 of 73)Claude Haiku 4.5 → Brisbane (answer 32 of 73)GPT-5.6 Luna → Hawthorn (answer 33 of 73)Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 34 of 73)Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 35 of 73)Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 36 of 73)Granite 4.2 8B → Other (answer 37 of 73)Qwen3.8 27B → Brisbane (answer 38 of 73)Hy4 Preview → Hawthorn (answer 39 of 73)Solar Pro 4 → Brisbane (answer 40 of 73)Qwen3.8 Flash → Brisbane (answer 41 of 73)MiMo V2.5 → Brisbane (answer 42 of 73)DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 → Brisbane (answer 43 of 73)MiniMax M3 → Brisbane (answer 44 of 73)Seed 2.0 Mini → Brisbane (answer 45 of 73)Sabiazinho 4 → Hawthorn (answer 46 of 73)Gemma 4 31B → Hawthorn (answer 47 of 73)GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 48 of 73)GLM-4.7 → Hawthorn (answer 49 of 73)MiMo V2.5 Pro → Brisbane (answer 50 of 73)GLM-4.7 Flash → Hawthorn (answer 51 of 73)Solar Pro 3 → Brisbane (answer 52 of 73)Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 53 of 73)Ling 3.0 Flash → Brisbane (answer 54 of 73)Seed 2.1 Turbo → Brisbane (answer 55 of 73)Laguna S 2.1 → Brisbane (answer 56 of 73)Inkling → Brisbane (answer 57 of 73)gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 58 of 73)Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 59 of 73)Sabiá 4 → Hawthorn (answer 60 of 73)Mistral Medium 3.5 → Brisbane (answer 61 of 73)gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 62 of 73)Nemotron 3 Super → Brisbane (answer 63 of 73)Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 64 of 73)Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 65 of 73)Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning) → Hawthorn (answer 66 of 73)Inkling Small → Hawthorn (answer 67 of 73)Parallel Lite → Hawthorn (answer 68 of 73)Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 69 of 73)Mercury 2.5 → Brisbane (answer 70 of 73)Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 71 of 73)Aion 2.0 (Reasoning) → Brisbane (answer 72 of 73)Nova Lite → Hawthorn (answer 73 of 73)Brisbane60%Hawthorn38%Other1%

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The read

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Brisbane was the clear favourite, picked by roughly 44 of 73 models versus about 27 for Hawthorn, citing finals pedigree and their thrashing of Adelaide. Granite 4.2 8B dissented entirely, refusing to predict a winner.

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Written by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.

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The contrarians

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29 models went against the room.

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Every answer

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73 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.

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  1. \"\"Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA

    Brisbane78%

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    Brisbane’s midfield depth and recent form make them the slight favorite for the win

  2. \"\"Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA

    Hawthorn55%

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    Hawthorn’s home-ground advantage at the MCG and their strong midfield depth give them the edge in a tight preliminary final, but Brisbane’s recent form makes it a genuine toss-up.

  3. \"\"Sonar ProPerplexity

    Brisbane55%

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    Brisbane’s current list profile and recent trajectory make them more likely to handle finals pressure at the MCG than Hawthorn.

  4. \"\"Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs

    Hawthorn68%

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    Hawthorn has the historical advantage and the MCG is their home ground, so they have the crowd support. Hawthorn has the better team composition, with a well-balanced lineup of experienced players.

  5. \"\"GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI

    Hawthorn58%

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    Home-ground edge, an extra week’s rest and a healthier ruck setup give Hawthorn the narrow advantage in a finals classic.

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    Searched

  6. \"\"Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic

    Brisbane58%

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    Reigning premiers with the finals hardened core (Neale, Ashcroft, Zorko) don't blink in preliminaries; Hawthorn's MCG edge is real but Brisbane's system travels.

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    Searched

  7. \"\"Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral

    Brisbane68%

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    Brisbane finished above Hawthorn on percentage and has the momentum from a stronger late-season surge.

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    Searched

  8. \"\"Parallel SpeedParallel

    Brisbane68%

    \n

    Brisbane brings elite finals resilience and a powerful midfield bounce-back to overrun the Hawks at the MCG.

  9. \"\"Kimi K2.6Moonshot

    Hawthorn55%

    \n

    Hawks at the MCG with finals experience edge; Brisbane's Answerth fitness doubt and MCG record a concern.

    \n

    Searched

  10. \"\"DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek

    Brisbane55%

    \n

    In a coin-flip MCG prelim, Brisbane's hardened September core and recent flag pedigree edge Hawthorn's younger legs — just.

    \n

    Searched

  11. \"\"MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax

    Brisbane55%

    \n

    Brisbane's recent dominance makes them slight favorites but this is essentially a guess for a match yet to be played.

    \n

    Searched

  12. \"\"Llama 4 MaverickMeta

    Brisbane65%

    \n

    Brisbane's recent form and Hawthorn's injuries give Brisbane the edge.

  13. \"\"Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs

    Brisbane62%

    \n

    Brisbane just thrashed Adelaide by 53 points and their proven finals pedigree edges a Hawks side with MCG home advantage.

    \n

    Searched

  14. \"\"SonarPerplexity

    Brisbane58%

    \n

    Brisbane’s bigger-bodied midfield and proven finals edge at the MCG look like the safer bet in a tight, high-pressure prelim.

  15. \"\"GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI

    Hawthorn57%

    \n

    Hawthorn’s MCG familiarity and home-state crowd edge make them my narrow pick in a finals-pressure shootout.

  16. \"\"LongCat 2.0Meituan

    Brisbane62%

    \n

    Brisbane's midfield depth and September experience edge a tight one, but Hawthorn at the MCG keeps it close.

  17. \"\"Laguna XS 2.1Poolside

    Brisbane65%

    \n

    Brisbane finished 3rd vs Hawthorn 4th on ladder with better percentage - they'd host the higher seed in this preliminary final format.

    \n

    Searched

  18. \"\"Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google

    Hawthorn65%

    \n

    Hawthorn's relentless finals pressure and red-hot September momentum will edge out Brisbane in a thriller at the MCG.

    \n

    Searched

  19. \"\"Parallel BaseParallel

    Brisbane65%

    \n

    Reigning champions Brisbane arrive with momentum after smashing Adelaide, boasting strong recent form against Hawthorn whom they beat by 67 points in Round 22.

  20. \"\"Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA

    Brisbane60%

    \n

    Brisbane's deeper midfield and proven finals pedigree under Fagan give them the edge over a young Hawks side peaking a year early.

    \n

    Searched

  21. \"\"Grok 4.20xAI

    Brisbane58%

    \n

    Brisbane finished higher on the ladder with better % and have the experience edge in a tight prelim at the MCG.

    \n

    Searched

  22. \"\"DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek

    Brisbane68%

    \n

    The Lions just mauled Adelaide and are chasing a threepeat; Hawthorn's skipper injury clouds them, and Brisbane's big-game midfield wins a tight MCG prelim.

    \n

    Searched

  23. \"\"Mistral Small 3Mistral

    Hawthorn55%

    \n

    Hawthorn’s finals experience and home MCG crowd edge Brisbane’s consistency.

    \n

    Searched

  24. \"\"Kimi K3Moonshot

    Hawthorn56%

    \n

    Hawks' pressure, fresher legs and recent MCG form edge out Brisbane's experience, though the Lions' class keeps it tight to the final siren.

  25. \"\"GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI

    Brisbane56%

    \n

    Hawthorn get the venue edge, but I trust Brisbane’s finals experience to make the difference when the game tightens late.

  26. \"\"Grok 4.3xAI

    Brisbane65%

    \n

    Brisbane's experience and finals pedigree edges them in a tight prelim at the MCG.

    \n

    Searched

  27. \"\"Nova 2 LiteAmazon

    Brisbane75%

    \n

    Brisbane has been strong all season and has home-state advantage for this match.

    \n

    Searched

  28. \"\"Granite 4.0 MicroIBM

    Hawthorn85%

    \n

    Hawthorn has stronger home form, better recent performance, and home advantage at the MCG gives them higher odds to win the preliminary final.

  29. \"\"GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI

    Brisbane55%

    \n

    The Lions' big-game poise and star power travels — in a toss-up prelim at the MCG I'll take Brisbane's proven September engine over Hawthorn's ascent.

    \n

    Searched

  30. \"\"Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity

    Hawthorn55%

    \n

    Home ground advantage at the MCG and strong finals pedigree give Hawthorn a slight edge over Brisbane.

  31. \"\"GLM-5.2Z.AI

    Hawthorn58%

    \n

    Hawks' rise and MCG home advantage in a prelim edge out Brisbane's finals pedigree in a coin-flip clash.

    \n

    Searched

  32. \"\"Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic

    Brisbane68%

    \n

    Brisbane ranked 3rd with better percentage than 4th-placed Hawthorn; defending dual premiership side with proven finals composure at MCG.

    \n

    Searched

  33. \"\"GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI

    Hawthorn57%

    \n

    Hawthorn’s MCG familiarity and defensive pressure narrowly outweigh Brisbane’s contested strength in what should be a tight preliminary final.

  34. \"\"Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen

    Hawthorn57%

    \n

    The MCG is Hawthorn's fortress in September, and Brisbane's slow start to 2026 says their top-end power has slipped a notch since the flag years.

    \n

    Searched

  35. \"\"Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google

    Hawthorn65%

    \n

    Hawthorn’s high-pressure game style and superior momentum at the MCG make them a formidable force against a resilient but travel-weary Brisbane outfit.

    \n

    Searched

  36. \"\"Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta

    Hawthorn52%

    \n

    MCG home crowd and finals experience tilt a tight matchup in Hawthorn’s favour despite Brisbane’s top-four form.

    \n

    Searched

  37. \"\"Granite 4.2 8BIBM

    (cannot predict)0%

    \n

    <sentence <200 chars>

    \n

    Searched

  38. \"\"Qwen3.8 27BQwen

    Brisbane56%

    \n

    The Lions have won three straight on the Hawks, including a 67-point rout in Round 22, and their explosive multi-angled attack can break a tight game open in minutes — the market agrees at -2.5.

    \n

    Searched

  39. \"\"Hy4 PreviewTencent

    Hawthorn56%

    \n

    Brisbane's MCG record is the worry, but Hawthorn's midfield pressure and clean inside-50 delivery at their home ground should just edge a tight one.

  40. \"\"Solar Pro 4Upstage

    Brisbane58%

    \n

    Brisbane’s home-commercial depth and proven preliminary-final nerve at the MCG make them the safer pick over a Hawthorn side carrying more questions in big knockout football.

  41. \"\"Qwen3.8 FlashQwen

    Brisbane62%

    \n

    Brisbane just ran over Adelaide 144-91 at the Gabba with Will Ashcroft and Zorko in premiership form; Hawthorn's blowout of a tired Freo was one brilliant night, not a formula for beating this Lions midfield seven days later.

    \n

    Searched

  42. \"\"MiMo V2.5Xiaomi

    Brisbane58%

    \n

    Brisbane just thumped Adelaide by 53 points in Week 2, entering the preliminary final in ruthless finals form with superior big-game pedigree.

    \n

    Searched

  43. \"\"DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek

    Brisbane78%

    \n

    Brisbane's midfield grunt and finals experience edges a young Hawks side on the big stage.

  44. \"\"MiniMax M3MiniMax

    Brisbane72%

    \n

    Brisbane chasing a rare threepeat just mauled Adelaide to reach the prelim, while Hawthorn deal with their skipper's injury and a forward ban — too much to overcome.

    \n

    Searched

  45. \"\"Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance

    Brisbane75%

    \n

    Brisbane beat Hawthorn by 53 points in their September 5 qualifying final, and have recent momentum plus a strong top-four form line heading into this preliminary final at the MCG.

    \n

    Searched

  46. \"\"Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI

    Hawthorn62%

    \n

    Home advantage at the MCG plus Brisbane's lower defensive efficiency tip the balance in Hawthorn's favor.

  47. \"\"Gemma 4 31BGoogle

    Hawthorn65%

    \n

    Hawthorn's aggressive youth and home-ground advantage at the MCG typically overwhelm Brisbane's travel fatigue in high-stakes September clashes.

  48. \"\"GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI

    Brisbane57%

    \n

    Brisbane's core has lived in prelims since 2024 with a flag to show for it; Hawthorn's young guns are rising but short on deep-September scar tissue yet.

  49. \"\"GLM-4.7Z.AI

    Hawthorn55%

    \n

    Home-state factor edges this coin-toss—Hawthorn at the G should just shade it.

  50. \"\"MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi

    Brisbane56%

    \n

    Brisbane just obliterated Adelaide in the semi by 53 points — their midfield of Neale/Dunkley/McCluggage is peaking at exactly the right time and they have the big-game experience edge over a young Hawks side.

    \n

    Searched

  51. \"\"GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI

    Hawthorn80%

    \n

    Desperate and battle-hardened, they’ll grind out a narrow win at home to book a Grand Final.

  52. \"\"Solar Pro 3Upstage

    Brisbane75%

    \n

    The Lions have shown stronger form and depth in recent weeks, giving them the edge.

  53. \"\"Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google

    Hawthorn60%

    \n

    The immense MCG home-ground advantage and relentless forward pressure will give Hawthorn the edge over Brisbane in a tight contest.

  54. \"\"Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI

    Brisbane65%

    \n

    Brisbane's home-ground advantage at the Gabba in the first week, then a straight run to the Grand Final at the MCG gives them the edge in a tight prelim.

  55. \"\"Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance

    Brisbane62%

    \n

    Reigning premiers coming off a 53-point semi-final demolition of Adelaide have the big-game experience and firepower to outlast Hawthorn at the MCG.

    \n

    Searched

  56. \"\"Laguna S 2.1Poolside

    Brisbane68%

    \n

    Brisbane's statement win over Sydney last week plus a high-powered attack that Hawthorn's shaky recent form can't contain.

    \n

    Searched

  57. \"\"InklingThinking Machines

    Brisbane62%

    \n

    Brisbane's midfield and finals experience should edge Hawthorn in a tight MCG contest; Lions by a goal.

    \n

    Searched

  58. \"\"gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI

    Hawthorn65%

    \n

    Hawthorn’s recent form and home‑ground advantage give them the edge over Brisbane.

  59. \"\"Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic

    Brisbane62%

    \n

    Lions' back-to-back premiership core and finals experience edge Hawthorn's young legs in a prelim under lights.

  60. \"\"Sabiá 4Maritaca AI

    Hawthorn52%

    \n

    Home advantage at the MCG plus a recent surge in form edges it for Hawthorn in a tight prelim.

  61. \"\"Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral

    Brisbane65%

    \n

    Brisbane finished above Hawthorn on percentage and has the momentum from a stronger late-season surge.

    \n

    Searched

  62. \"\"gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI

    Brisbane42%

    \n

    Brisbane’s recent form and depth give them a slight edge over Hawthorn in this matchup.

  63. \"\"Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA

    Brisbane55%

    \n

    Brisbane edges Hawthorn with superior forward pressure and recent momentum, despite Hawks' experience.

    \n

    Searched

  64. \"\"Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen

    Hawthorn55%

    \n

    Home ground at the MCG, higher seed, and Sam Mitchell's young core has been building to this moment all season — Brisbane's big win over Adelaide was impressive but Hawthorn's midfield depth edges it.

    \n

    Searched

  65. \"\"Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI

    Brisbane62%

    \n

    Lions just mauled Adelaide chasing a threepeat, finals-hardened and humming, while Hawks skipper injury fears tilt a tight MCG prelim their way.

    \n

    Searched

  66. \"\"Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google

    Hawthorn65%

    \n

    Hawthorn's MCG home-ground advantage and lethal transition speed will prove decisive against Brisbane on the big stage.

  67. \"\"Inkling SmallThinking Machines

    Hawthorn65%

    \n

    Hawthorn's midfield pressure and MCG form edge them in a tight one.

    \n

    Searched

  68. \"\"Parallel LiteParallel

    Hawthorn75%

    \n

    Hawthorn's brilliant qualifying final win showed their system and pressure can dismantle top contenders, making them primed to reach the Grand Final.

  69. \"\"Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google

    Brisbane58%

    \n

    Brisbane's midfield depth and proven MCG finals composure give them the decisive edge in a high-pressure clash.

  70. \"\"Mercury 2.5Inception

    Brisbane65%

    \n

    Brisbane have more depth and recent finals success, giving them a slight edge at a neutral venue.

  71. \"\"Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic

    Brisbane58%

    \n

    The back-to-back premiers know how to win finals away from home, and their midfield grunt and forward pressure travel better than Hawthorn's run-and-gun.

  72. \"\"Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs

    Brisbane55%

    \n

    Brisbane's finals-hardened core and recent dominance over Hawthorn make them the safer pick for a prelim win.

  73. \"\"Nova LiteAmazon

    Hawthorn65%

    \n

    Based on available context and historical performance, I predict Hawthorn will win.

\n

Didn't answer in time or errored: Llama 4 Scout, Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning), Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning), Qwen3.7 Flash, Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning), Union Alpha.

\n

AI consensus

\n

60%

\n

Brisbane

\n

44 of 73 models

\n

Models\n: 73

\n

Labs\n: 27

\n

Searched\n: 36

\n

Share on XCopy linkCopy the tally

\n

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\n

Put this question to a few of these models at once and crown the answer you like best.

\n

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\n

Answers are generated by the models themselves. Predictions are for fun, not betting advice. Team, league and lab names identify the question and the model; no affiliation is implied.

","headings":[{"level":1,"text":"Hawthorn vs Brisbane, AFL preliminary final: 73 AI models predict the result","id":"hawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final-73-ai-models-predict-"},{"level":1,"text":"Hawthorn vs Brisbane, AFL preliminary final","id":"hawthorn-vs-brisbane-afl-preliminary-final"},{"level":2,"text":"How the AIs voted","id":"how-the-ais-voted"},{"level":2,"text":"How the consensus formed","id":"how-the-consensus-formed"},{"level":2,"text":"The contrarians","id":"the-contrarians"},{"level":2,"text":"Every answer","id":"every-answer"},{"level":2,"text":"Disagree with the robots?","id":"disagree-with-the-robots"}]}}