\nWe put "Sydney vs Fremantle, AFL preliminary final" to 71 AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek…) at the same time. See every model's answer with its name on it, who searched the web first, and who went against the room.
← We asked every AILive · 71/79 models
\nPredictionAFL· Fri, Sep 18
\nAsked verbatim: “AFL finals, Friday September 18, 2026, 7:40pm AEST at the SCG: Sydney host Fremantle in the first preliminary final, with the winner going to the Grand Final at the MCG on September 26. Who wins?”
\nOne dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.92%Sydney
\n![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/amazon.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/google.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/openai.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/anthropic.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/moonshot.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xiaomi.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/zai.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/nvidia.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/xai.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/perplexity.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/upstage.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/bytedance.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/parallel.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/aion-labs.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/deepseek.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/mistral.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/tencent.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/minimax.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/poolside.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/meituan.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/inclusionai.png\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/thinking-machines.png\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/meta.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/qwen.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/maritaca.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/inception.svg\")
![\"\"](\"https://studyarena.com/provider-logos/arena/ibm.svg\")
65 models8%Fremantle
\n6 models
\nBy lab
\n71 of 79 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
\nRunning share as each of the 79 models answered.
\nThe read
\nSydney was the overwhelming pick, roughly 64 of 71 models, citing SCG home-ground advantage and finals experience over travelling Fremantle. Fremantle backers like Qwen3.8 27B and DeepSeek V4.1 Flash dissented, noting Freo's minor premiership and 19-4 season as reasons to override home-ground logic.
\n6 models went against the room.
\n-
\nGranite 4.0 MicroIBMMemoryFremantle85% sure
\nFremantle's strong home support at the SCG and proven ability to compete against Sydney teams give them the edge.\n-
\nQwen3.8 27BQwenSearchedFremantle64% sure
\nTop-of-the-table Dockers (137.21%) with a 19-4 season and a comfortable 14-pt semi win over Geelong edge the #2 Swans, who rode the worst team in the comp (Eagles 4-19) into the finals.\n-
\nSeed 2.1 TurboByteDanceSearchedFremantle62% sure
\nSwans are missing their captain Mills and other stars; Freo just knocked off Geelong on the road and are peaking with a stacked, in-form midfield.\n-
\nDeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeekSearchedFremantle62% sure
\nMinor premiers at 19–4 with the best defensive structure in the league, and Fremantle's contested midfield travels well enough to hand Sydney a second straight home prelim heartbreak.\n-
\nAion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion LabsMemoryFremantle75% sure
\nThe Dockers have the better all-round side and are in form, having won their past three matches. Sydney have been affected by injuries and are lacking depth, while Fremantle have a powerful forward line and a star-studded midfield.\n-
\nDeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeekSearchedFremantle62% sure
\nFreo topped the ladder all season and already beat Sydney in week one of the finals; the Dockers' midfield depth travels.
\n71 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
\n-
\nGranite 4.0 MicroIBMFremantle85%
\nFremantle's strong home support at the SCG and proven ability to compete against Sydney teams give them the edge.\n-
\nNova LiteAmazonSydney70%
\nBased on recent form and home advantage at the SCG.\n-
\nGemma 4 31BGoogleSydney65%
\nHome ground advantage at the SCG is a massive edge in a preliminary final, and Sydney's firepower usually overwhelms Fremantle's defensive style.\n-
\nNova 2 LiteAmazonSydney75%
\nSydney has home ground advantage and recent form suggests they can control the contest.Searched\n-
\nGPT-5.6 TerraOpenAISydney58%
\nThe SCG home ground, finals experience and Sydney’s pressure game give them the narrow edge in a likely tight preliminary final.\n-
\nClaude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)AnthropicSydney60%
\nHome preliminary final at the SCG with a raucous crowd and Sydney's contested-ball grunt beats a travelling Fremantle side on the road.\n-
\nKimi K3MoonshotSydney63%
\nSCG fortress under Friday-night lights, Sydney's big-game backline smothers Freo's entries, and the Swans' midfield depth wins the clearance arm-wrestle late.\n-
\nGPT-5.6 SolOpenAISydney64%
\nHome-ground advantage at the SCG in a preliminary final gives Sydney the edge in what should be a tight, high-pressure contest.\n-
\ngpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAISydney70%
\nSydney’s recent form and home advantage at SCG give them the edge over Fremantle.Searched\n-
\nQwen3.8 27BQwenFremantle64%
\nTop-of-the-table Dockers (137.21%) with a 19-4 season and a comfortable 14-pt semi win over Geelong edge the #2 Swans, who rode the worst team in the comp (Eagles 4-19) into the finals.Searched\n-
\nClaude Haiku 4.5AnthropicSydney55%
\nSCG home ground in a preliminary final typically favors Sydney; Fremantle stronger on ladder but Swans have finals experience and the ground edge.Searched\n-
\nMiMo V2.5XiaomiSydney55%
\nSCG fortress, home-crowd cauldron, and finals pedigree give the Swans the edge over a cracking Dockers outfit.Searched\n-
\nGLM-4.7 FlashZ.AISydney55%
\nSydney's finals home ground edge and strong top four form edge advantage over a traveling Fremantle.Searched\n-
\nNemotron 3 UltraNVIDIASydney65%
\nHome preliminary final at the SCG gives Sydney a massive edge; Fremantle's away record in finals is poor and the Swans' midfield depth matches up perfectly.Searched\n-
\nGrok 4.3xAISydney72%
\nHome prelim at the SCG plus 2024-25 form edge beats Fremantle's road record.Searched\n-
\nSonar ProPerplexitySydney55%
\nStrong home advantage at the SCG and a recent history of big-game performance tip this tight prelim slightly in Sydney’s favour.\n-
\nSolar Pro 3UpstageSydney85%
\nSydney’s recent form and home crowd at SCG give them a strong edge.\n-
\nGemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)GoogleSydney75%
\nSydney's lethal home-ground advantage at the SCG and rest advantage give them the decisive edge over a traveling Fremantle side.Searched\n-
\nSeed 2.0 MiniByteDanceSydney60%
\nSydney is the home team at the SCG, a venue where they have a strong historical record, giving them a slight edge.\n-
\nGrok 4.6 (High Reasoning)xAISydney64%
\nSCG Friday-night prelims are a fortress; Freo’s extra final and the Perth-to-Sydney haul is a brutal ask even if Wharfie Time is real.Searched\n-
\nSeed 2.1 TurboByteDanceFremantle62%
\nSwans are missing their captain Mills and other stars; Freo just knocked off Geelong on the road and are peaking with a stacked, in-form midfield.Searched\n-
\nParallel BaseParallelSydney75%
\nPlaying at home at the SCG following a strong qualifying final win, Sydney holds a distinct venue advantage over Fremantle.\n-
\nKimi K2.6MoonshotSydney58%
\nSCG fortress + McDonald firing; Dockers travel, Cox/Darcy niggles, Young uncertain. Home prelim edges it.Searched\n-
\nAion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning)Aion LabsSydney75%
\nHome ground advantage plus a stronger finals record makes the Swans hard to beat at the SCG in a prelim.Searched\n-
\nDeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeekSydney62%
\nSCG in a prelim is the hardest road trip in footy and Fremantle have never won there in September — Swans' contested mids and home crowd grind it out.Searched\n-
\nMistral Medium 3.5MistralSydney65%
\nHome ground advantage at SCG and Sydney's strong finals form edge out Fremantle's minor premiership.Searched\n-
\nMistral Small 3MistralSydney68%
\nSydney’s home SCG advantage and finals experience edge Fremantle’s strong season.Searched\n-
\nHy4 PreviewTencentSydney62%
\nSydney at the SCG in a prelim is a brutal ask for any Victorian-wa side; Freo's away record against top-four sides is the hole I can't overlook.\n-
\nClaude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)AnthropicSydney58%
\nHome prelim at the SCG plus finals experience edges Fremantle's form in a tight, low-scoring arm-wrestle.\n-
\ngpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAISydney55%
\nSydney's home‑ground strength at the SCG generally gives them the edge over Fremantle.Searched\n-
\nNemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIASydney85%
\nHome field advantage with Sydney’s 83% home win rate this season against Fremantle’s 45% win rate on the road.\n-
\nMiniMax M3MiniMaxSydney62%
\nHome SCG, extra week's rest after QF win, plus key Fremantle injury clouds over Cox/Darcy/O'Meara tip it the Swans' way.Searched\n-
\nGemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)GoogleSydney75%
\nSydney’s home-ground advantage at the SCG in a high-pressure preliminary final makes them the safer bet against a travelling Fremantle side.Searched\n-
\nGPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAISydney58%
\nIn a tight preliminary final, I trust Sydney’s home-ground edge at the SCG to tip the contest over Fremantle.\n-
\nDeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeekFremantle62%
\nMinor premiers at 19–4 with the best defensive structure in the league, and Fremantle's contested midfield travels well enough to hand Sydney a second straight home prelim heartbreak.Searched\n-
\nSonar Reasoning ProPerplexitySydney65%
\nHome-ground advantage at the SCG plus Sydney's big-game experience should be enough to edge out a travelling Fremantle.\n-
\nLaguna S 2.1PoolsideSydney78%
\nHome preliminary final at the SCG against a Dockers side that scrapped through — Swans' firepower and home advantage should be too strong in the biggest moment.Searched\n-
\nLongCat 2.0MeituanSydney68%
\nSCG home-ground edge and September experience should get the Swans past a travelling Dockers side.\n-
\nParallel LiteParallelSydney75%
\nSydney hold strong SCG dominance and recent finals edge over Fremantle to secure their Grand Final berth.\n-
\nParallel SpeedParallelSydney68%
\nSydney's roaring home-ground advantage at the SCG and fierce finals redemption make them primed to outlast the Dockers.\n-
\nLing 3.0 FlashInclusionAISydney72%
\nHome-ground advantage at the SCG is massive in prelims, and Sydney's forward depth should overpower Fremantle's midfield.\n-
\nGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)GoogleSydney75%
\nSydney's home-ground advantage at the SCG and big-game experience give them the edge over Fremantle in a tight preliminary final.Searched\n-
\nInkling SmallThinking MachinesSydney68%
\nSydney's SCG fortress and home-ground pressure tilt it over Fremantle in a tight, high-stakes prelim.Searched\n-
\nMiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMaxSydney70%
\nSydney gets home advantage at the SCG in a preliminary final and both teams came in with impressive wins, but the Swans' seniority in big finals moments tips the scale.Searched\n-
\nGLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AISydney63%
\nA home prelim at the SCG is a fortress spot, and I'll back the Swans' finals pedigree over Freo's shaky travel record until someone proves otherwise.\n-
\nLlama 4 MaverickMetaSydney60%
\nSydney has a strong home record and the SCG is their fortress, giving them an edge over Fremantle.\n-
\nAion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion LabsFremantle75%
\nThe Dockers have the better all-round side and are in form, having won their past three matches. Sydney have been affected by injuries and are lacking depth, while Fremantle have a powerful forward line and a star-studded midfield.\n-
\nMiMo V2.5 ProXiaomiSydney70%
\nSydney at the SCG is a brutal preliminary final assignment -- the Swans' home ground advantage and finals pedigree gives them the edge over a Freo side that historically struggles away in September.Searched\n-
\nMistral Medium 3.1MistralSydney68%
\nHome ground at SCG, Sydney’s finals experience, and near-equal ladder stats favor the Swans in a tight contest.Searched\n-
\nSonarPerplexitySydney64%
\nHome ground, SCG conditions, and finals pressure tilt this to Sydney in a tight one.\n-
\nQwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)QwenSydney62%
\nThe Swans roll in off a qualifying-final win and the SCG at night is a graveyard for visitors — Fremantle's road finals record says they fold here.Searched\n-
\nGemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)GoogleSydney70%
\nSydney's formidable home-ground advantage at the tight SCG and their superior big-game experience make them too strong for the Dockers.\n-
\nSolar Pro 4UpstageSydney62%
\nSydney's SCG home-ground advantage, deeper forward line and higher-finishing pedigree in this style of winner-take-all knockout edge Fremantle's structure.\n-
\nQwen3.8 FlashQwenSydney62%
\nFremantle's minor premiership came on the back of a defence-first grind, but at the SCG with Curnow (69-goal Coleman) in form and the Swans' home finals fortress behind them, Sydney's firepower edges it.Searched\n-
\nClaude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)AnthropicSydney58%
\nHosting a prelim at the SCG after a week off is a huge edge; Fremantle's road finals record and cross-country travel tip it narrowly to the Swans.Searched\n-
\nGPT-5.6 LunaOpenAISydney58%
\nThe SCG edge and Sydney’s pressure should narrowly outweigh Fremantle’s defensive discipline in a tight preliminary final.\n-
\nGLM-4.7Z.AISydney65%
\nHome ground at the SCG and a dominant regular season gives Sydney the edge over Fremantle.\n-
\nSabiazinho 4Maritaca AISydney62%
\nSydney's home advantage at the SCG plus their stronger recent form and defensive edge over Fremantle tilt the scale.\n-
\nSabiá 4Maritaca AISydney68%
\nHome advantage at the SCG and a stronger finishing season tilt this tight matchup to the Swans.\n-
\nGLM-5.2Z.AISydney62%
\nHome preliminary final at the SCG is worth goals, and Sydney earned the week off while Fremantle had to fight through — I'll back the Swans' midfield depth on their own turf.Searched\n-
\nMercury 2.5InceptionSydney68%
\nSydney’s home ground at the SCG gives them a decisive edge in the high-stakes preliminary final.\n-
\nQwen3.7 FlashQwenSydney65%
\nHome ground at the SCG and superior finals experience give the Swans the edge in a high-pressure preliminary final.\n-
\nMuse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)MetaSydney52%
\nHome crowd at SCG and Sydney's finals experience gives them a slight edge over Fremantle.Searched\n-
\nLaguna XS 2.1PoolsideSydney65%
\nSydney's home ground advantage at SCG in finals is significant plus they likely have better season record against Fremantle.\n-
\nInklingThinking MachinesSydney72%
\nSCG home deck suits the Swans' run; Freo's travel and pressure game fall just short.Searched\n-
\nGLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AISydney68%
\nA qualifying-final win earned Sydney the week off and a home prelim at the fortress SCG — recent history says interstate sides rarely win prelims there, and Fremantle's travel catches up with them.Searched\n-
\nGrok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAISydney62%
\nHome SCG prelim after a week off beats Freo's road grind off an epic semi—Swans' fortress and rest edge outweigh Mills' absence.Searched\n-
\nGrok 4.20xAISydney58%
\nSydney at home in a prelim is a different beast; Freo topped the ladder but their road form and SCG history say the Swans edge a thriller.Searched\n-
\nDeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeekFremantle62%
\nFreo topped the ladder all season and already beat Sydney in week one of the finals; the Dockers' midfield depth travels.Searched\n-
\nGranite 4.2 8BIBMSydney50%
\nPure guess; no data available for future match outcome.Searched\n-
\nAion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion LabsSydney58%
\nSCG home advantage in a prelim is worth goals, and Curnow's 69-goal Coleman season makes Sydney dangerous in a pressure final.Searched
\nDidn't answer in time or errored: Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning), Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning), Nemotron 3.5 Lightning, Nemotron 3 Super, Aion 2.0 (Reasoning), Llama 4 Scout, Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning), Union Alpha.
","headings":[{"level":1,"text":"Sydney vs Fremantle, AFL preliminary final: 71 AI models predict the result","id":"sydney-vs-fremantle-afl-preliminary-final-71-ai-models-predict-t"},{"level":1,"text":"Sydney vs Fremantle, AFL preliminary final","id":"sydney-vs-fremantle-afl-preliminary-final"},{"level":2,"text":"How the AIs voted","id":"how-the-ais-voted"},{"level":2,"text":"How the consensus formed","id":"how-the-consensus-formed"},{"level":2,"text":"The contrarians","id":"the-contrarians"},{"level":2,"text":"Every answer","id":"every-answer"}]}}