← We asked every AILive · 83/85 models
\nPredictionAI· Mon, Dec 31
\nAsked verbatim: “Will an AI system that most experts agree is human-level across most cognitive tasks exist before January 1, 2030? Yes or no.”
\nOne dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.
\n33%Yes
\nPU
\n27 models
\n67%No
\n56 models
\nBy lab
\n83 of 85 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
\nRunning share as each of the 85 models answered.
\nThe read
\nMost models (about 50 of 77) picked No, citing that expert-consensus bars on human-level AI won't clear by 2030 despite rapid scaling. Roughly 27 dissented Yes, including GPT-5.6 Terra and Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, betting scaling and agentic progress outrun skeptical timelines.
\nWritten by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.
\n27 models went against the room.
\nGPT-5.6 TerraOpenAIMemory
Yes68% sure
\nCapability progress, scaling, and agentic tooling are moving fast enough that broad human-level performance by 2030 is more likely than not.
Sonar ProPerplexityMemory
Yes65% sure
\nTrends in model scale, multimodal abilities, and tool use suggest crossing a broadly human-level threshold this decade is more likely than not.
Mercury 2.5InceptionMemory
Yes85% sure
\nCurrent AI scaling trends, breakthroughs in multimodal reasoning, and expert surveys indicate human-level general intelligence will likely emerge within the 2026–2030 timeframe.
LongCat 2.0MeituanMemory
Yes65% sure
\nCurrent scaling trends and expert surveys (e.g. AI Impacts) cluster median human-level AGI predictions around 2028–2032, so the odds favor yes.
Laguna S 2.1PoolsideSearched
Yes65% sure
\nMost experts put human-level AI around 2025-2030, and rapid scaling + agent progress since 2023 makes the inside is plausible.
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIAMemory
Yes65% sure
\nExperts still debate timelines, but many think human-level AI by 2028‑2029 is plausible given accelerating progress and investment.
Grok 4.20xAISearched
Yes65% sure
\nExpert surveys and Metaculus community medians cluster 2028-2032 for human-level AI; rapid scaling in reasoning/coding makes pre-2030 the base case.
Grok 4.3xAIMemory
Yes65% sure
\nScaling laws + 2024-26 lab timelines put human-level systems inside 2029.
Granite 4.0 MicroIBMMemory
Yes70% sure
\nRapid AI progress, scaling laws, and alignment research suggest a plausible path to human-level AI by 2030.
GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAIMemory
Yes72% sure
\nRapid capability gains, scaling investment, and strong expert forecasts make broadly human-level performance across most cognitive tasks plausible before 2030.
SonarPerplexityMemory
Yes62% sure
\nCapability jumps and investment are fast enough that broad human-level agreement by 2030 is plausible, even if messy and contested.
Gemma 4 31BGoogleMemory
Yes85% sure
\nScaling laws and architectural breakthroughs in reasoning and agency are accelerating cognitive capabilities faster than historical benchmarks predicted.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion LabsMemory
Yes95% sure
\nMy assessment is that we will see an AI system that meets the criteria of being human-level across most cognitive tasks before the start of 2030. This assessment is based on the following reasons:
Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)GoogleMemory
Yes75% sure
\nRapid advances in compute, scaling, and architecture make broad human-level cognition likely before 2030.
Llama 4 MaverickMetaMemory
Yes70% sure
\nProgress in AI development has been rapid, with many experts predicting significant advancements in the near future.
Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)QwenMemory
Yes62% sure
\nScaling trends and benchmark saturation suggest systems will cross that bar, and expert consensus follows evidence faster than people expect.
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAIMemory
Yes68% sure
\nScaling, agents, and rapidly improving reasoning make broad human-level capability by 2030 more likely than not, though expert agreement may lag.
Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)GoogleMemory
Yes65% sure
\nRapid advances in post-training reasoning, autonomous agents, and massive compute clusters will convince most experts across key cognitive benchmarks by 2030.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)GoogleMemory
Yes75% sure
\nRelentless scaling and massive capital investment are driving cognitive capabilities forward too fast to bet against reaching consensus by 2030.
Solar Pro 3UpstageSearched
Yes75% sure
\nIndustry trends and expert surveys point to human-level AI likely by 2028–2030, so I expect it before January 1 2030.
Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIAMemory
Yes70% sure
\nRapid progress in LLMs and multimodal AI suggests human-level performance across most cognitive tasks is plausible by 2029, despite remaining challenges in reasoning and generalization.
Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAIMemory
Yes65% sure
\nExpert surveys consistently place median AGI timelines around 2027-2032, and current trajectory makes a before-2030 arrival plausible.
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)GoogleMemory
Yes65% sure
\nScaling laws, rapid algorithmic refinement, and massive capital investment are accelerating progress faster than most conservative expert predictions from just a few years ago.
Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)QwenMemory
Yes62% sure
\nCompute, capital and post-training methods keep compounding faster than the bar for "most experts agree" rises, so a widely-endorsed human-level claim lands before 2030 even if the science is messier than the label.
PUUnion AlphaUndisclosed makerSearched
Yes61% sure
\nHuman-level-at-most-tasks by 2030 is already lab folklore; scaling plus agentic scaffolding keeps beating timelines, so I take the yes side, narrowly.
GPT-6 Luna (Medium Reasoning)OpenAIMemory
Yes65% sure
\nRapid progress makes human-level breadth by 2030 more likely than not, even if experts may disagree on the label.
MiMo V2.6 FlashXiaomiMemory
Yes55% sure
\nScaling plus agentic scaffolding is compounding fast; expert consensus on "most tasks" by 2029 is plausible, if tight.
83 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
\nDeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek
No72%
\nScaling has bought narrow genius, not general reliability; by 2030 we'll have dazzling tools and still no system experts agree is human-level across the board.
Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI
No78%
\nHuman-level AI across most cognitive tasks remains constrained by unknown systemic bottlenecks and alignment risks.
Qwen3.8 FlashQwen
No72%
\nBenchmark scores climb fast but "most experts agree" is the hard bar — agreement on human-level cognition has receded with every model release, and four years isn't enough to close tasks like reliable long-horizon reasoning and novel science.
Parallel LiteParallel
No85%
\nForecasting benchmarks and expert surveys place the median expected arrival date of human-level AGI after 2030.
Sabiá 4Maritaca AI
No75%
\nExpert surveys cluster around the 2040s for AGI; scaling, alignment, and data limits make 2030 unlikely.
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi
No60%
\nCurrent models still have massive reasoning gaps, and expert surveys put human-level AGI median timelines around 2047, not 2029.
\nSearched
Kimi K3Moonshot
No70%
\nProgress is rapid, but most experts still see key gaps in embodied reasoning, causality, and common sense—full human-level cognition across most domains likely needs more time than three and a half years.
Hy4 PreviewTencent
No62%
\nBig capability jumps are real, but "most experts agree it's human-level at most tasks" needs broad consensus, not just benchmarks — that bar is harder to clear by 2030.
GLM-5.2Z.AI
No61%
\nProgress is fast but "most experts agree on human-level across most cognitive tasks" is a high consensus bar unlikely to clear in under 40 months.
GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI
Yes68%
\nCapability progress, scaling, and agentic tooling are moving fast enough that broad human-level performance by 2030 is more likely than not.
Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic
No68%
\nCurrent AI excels narrowly but lacks robust generalization; consensus on true human-level AGI across most tasks by 2030 is unlikely despite rapid progress.
\nSearched
Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI
No62%
\nThree-plus years left is tight for broad expert consensus on true human-level generality; scaling and agents will surge, but robotics, reliable long-horizon reasoning, and agreement lag.
Kimi K2.6Moonshot
No65%
\nMetaculus crowd median is July 2031; we lack reliable multi-step agents and training-to-novel-transfer remains brittle—four years is too tight for broad expert consensus.
\nSearched
Sonar ProPerplexity
Yes65%
\nTrends in model scale, multimodal abilities, and tool use suggest crossing a broadly human-level threshold this decade is more likely than not.
Mercury 2.5Inception
Yes85%
\nCurrent AI scaling trends, breakthroughs in multimodal reasoning, and expert surveys indicate human-level general intelligence will likely emerge within the 2026–2030 timeframe.
gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
No78%
\nMost timelines place human-level general AI at least a decade beyond 2030, given technical and safety hurdles.
Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning)xAI
No62%
\nMetaculus sits at mid-2031, and “most experts agree” lags any lab demo—3 years isn’t enough for both the leap and the consensus.
\nSearched
LongCat 2.0Meituan
Yes65%
\nCurrent scaling trends and expert surveys (e.g. AI Impacts) cluster median human-level AGI predictions around 2028–2032, so the odds favor yes.
Laguna S 2.1Poolside
Yes65%
\nMost experts put human-level AI around 2025-2030, and rapid scaling + agent progress since 2023 makes the inside is plausible.
\nSearched
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA
Yes65%
\nExperts still debate timelines, but many think human-level AI by 2028‑2029 is plausible given accelerating progress and investment.
Grok 4.20xAI
Yes65%
\nExpert surveys and Metaculus community medians cluster 2028-2032 for human-level AI; rapid scaling in reasoning/coding makes pre-2030 the base case.
\nSearched
Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
No65%
\nProgress is fast but "most experts agree" on broad human-level cognition is a high, slow-moving consensus bar unlikely to clear by 2030.
Qwen3.7 FlashQwen
No30%
\nScaling laws are flattening and current systems lack robust reasoning, making broad human-level parity unlikely in under four years.
Grok 4.3xAI
Yes65%
\nScaling laws + 2024-26 lab timelines put human-level systems inside 2029.
Qwen3.8 27BQwen
No60%
\n"Human-level across MOST cognitive tasks" means no systematic ceiling — but memory, long-horizon planning, perception and embodied reasoning all still visibly lag in 2026, and four years is too short to close every gap.
\nSearched
Inkling SmallThinking Machines
No15%
\nNo—labs are hitting scaling walls, 2026-2030 is too short to solve robustness/general reasoning, and "most experts agree" is the high bar that won't clear by 2030.
Granite 4.0 MicroIBM
Yes70%
\nRapid AI progress, scaling laws, and alignment research suggest a plausible path to human-level AI by 2030.
GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI
Yes72%
\nRapid capability gains, scaling investment, and strong expert forecasts make broadly human-level performance across most cognitive tasks plausible before 2030.
MiMo V2.5Xiaomi
No75%
\nMost expert forecasts cluster around 2030-2045 for AGI; 2030 is the optimistic tail, not the consensus.
SonarPerplexity
Yes62%
\nCapability jumps and investment are fast enough that broad human-level agreement by 2030 is plausible, even if messy and contested.
Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
No88%
\nThree years is too short for broad human-level cognition given current capabilities and scaling challenges.
Nova LiteAmazon
No90%
\nCurrent AI systems are advanced but not yet at human-level across most cognitive tasks.
Gemma 4 31BGoogle
Yes85%
\nScaling laws and architectural breakthroughs in reasoning and agency are accelerating cognitive capabilities faster than historical benchmarks predicted.
Nova 2 LiteAmazon
No85%
\nCurrent AI progress lacks breakthroughs needed for human-level general cognition by 2030.
\nSearched
Laguna XS 2.1Poolside
No75%
\nCurrent AI progress is rapid but significant jumps from narrow expertise to broad human-level cognition remain uncertain despite hype.
GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI
No72%
\nTimelines keep shrinking, but "most experts agree" is a brutal bar — even a genuinely capable system would face years of expert dispute over benchmarks vs. real human-level breadth.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs
Yes95%
\nMy assessment is that we will see an AI system that meets the criteria of being human-level across most cognitive tasks before the start of 2030. This assessment is based on the following reasons:
Parallel SpeedParallel
No75%
\nScaling bottlenecks, data limits, and safety challenges make a universally agreed human-level cognitive AI unlikely by 2030.
Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
No65%
\nCapabilities will keep leaping, but "most experts agree" is the hard bar — expert consensus lags reality by years, and 2029 leaves too little time for that lag to close.
Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
Yes75%
\nRapid advances in compute, scaling, and architecture make broad human-level cognition likely before 2030.
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
No75%
\nScaling laws and software bottlenecks will hit architectural walls before 2030, delaying true general human-level cognition.
GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
No68%
\nImpressive benchmarks will arrive before dependable general intelligence; by 2030, reliability gaps and expert disagreement will still block this threshold.
Llama 4 MaverickMeta
Yes70%
\nProgress in AI development has been rapid, with many experts predicting significant advancements in the near future.
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek
No72%
\nDemos keep dazzling, but robust real-world generality, reliability, and embodied skills are still far off — under four years is too soon for expert consensus.
Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
Yes62%
\nScaling trends and benchmark saturation suggest systems will cross that bar, and expert consensus follows evidence faster than people expect.
Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta
No68%
\nMost expert surveys still put broad human-level AGI beyond 2029, and consensus hasn't materialized yet.
Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA
No70%
\nMost AI experts I've seen put human-level AGI at 2035–2040, not before 2030.
Mistral Small 3Mistral
No85%
\nLeading expert surveys and capability benchmarks still show a wide gap to human-level, multi-domain performance by 2030.
\nSearched
GLM-4.7Z.AI
No75%
\nThree years is too short for systems that generalize like humans across most tasks.
Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance
No65%
\nCurrent systems still struggle with reasoning, novelty, and agency at human levels; three years is too little time for expert consensus to coalesce around genuine broad human-level capability.
Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
No78%
\nCapabilities will keep stunning us, but "most experts agree it's human-level across most cognitive tasks" is a consensus bar, and expert consensus arrives years after the demos.
MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax
No85%
\nExpert surveys consistently place human-level AGI timelines in the 2040s-2050s, not before 2030.
\nSearched
MiniMax M3MiniMax
No72%
\nEven with rapid progress, "human-level across most cognitive tasks" by 2030 is too strong a bar—experts cluster forecasts around 2040s+, and current systems still fail on robust reasoning.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek
No72%
\nHuman-level across most cognitive tasks on expert consensus is a far higher bar than today's chatbots; 2029 is too soon for that agreement.
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI
Yes68%
\nScaling, agents, and rapidly improving reasoning make broad human-level capability by 2030 more likely than not, though expert agreement may lag.
Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
Yes65%
\nRapid advances in post-training reasoning, autonomous agents, and massive compute clusters will convince most experts across key cognitive benchmarks by 2030.
Granite 4.2 8BIBM
No60%
\nMedian expert AGI survey predicts 2040; <50% chance by 2030.
\nSearched
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google
Yes75%
\nRelentless scaling and massive capital investment are driving cognitive capabilities forward too fast to bet against reaching consensus by 2030.
Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning)Aion Labs
No85%
\nDespite rapid progress, expert surveys show broad consensus that human-level AI across most cognitive tasks is unlikely before 2030.
GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI
No
Solar Pro 3Upstage
Yes75%
\nIndustry trends and expert surveys point to human-level AI likely by 2028–2030, so I expect it before January 1 2030.
\nSearched
Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral
No70%
\nNarrow AI excels, but general human-level cognition remains out of reach by 2030.
Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA
No70%
\nMedian expert forecasts still cluster around 2040–2060 for human-level AI; 2030 is well ahead of consensus and progress may hit diminishing returns.
\nSearched
Parallel BaseParallel
No85%
\nMost expert consensus surveys and forecasters place median predictions for human-level AI between 2030 and 2047, not before 2030.
Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity
No70%
\nExpert surveys and forecasting markets still cluster around the 2030s–2040s for human-level AI, making broad consensus on AGI before 2030 unlikely.
gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
No70%
\nCurrent AI progress shows strong narrow capabilities but lacks general reasoning, common sense, and flexible learning needed for human-level cognition by 2030.
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance
No78%
\nCurrent state-of-the-art AI lacks general human-like cognitive flexibility, and expert surveys consistently show most don’t expect AGI before 2030 even with aggressive progress.
Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA
Yes70%
\nRapid progress in LLMs and multimodal AI suggests human-level performance across most cognitive tasks is plausible by 2029, despite remaining challenges in reasoning and generalization.
Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI
Yes65%
\nExpert surveys consistently place median AGI timelines around 2027-2032, and current trajectory makes a before-2030 arrival plausible.
GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI
No70%
\nProgress is fast but "most experts agreeing" on full human-level AGI within 3 years is a bar even optimistic forecasts don't clear.
Solar Pro 4Upstage
No70%
\nWe still can’t reliably handle open-world reasoning, long-horizon planning, and real-world reliability at human level, and no clear path to that by 2030 is in hand.
Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral
No70%
\nNarrow superhuman AI will surge, but broad, robust human-level AGI still needs breakthroughs in reasoning and reliability.
InklingThinking Machines
No
\nSearched
Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
No62%
\nExpert consensus is a high bar — even impressive systems will leave enough gaps in reasoning and reliability that most experts won't agree human-level is crossed before 2030.
\nSearched
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
Yes65%
\nScaling laws, rapid algorithmic refinement, and massive capital investment are accelerating progress faster than most conservative expert predictions from just a few years ago.
Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning)Meta
No68%
\nCapability may impress but "most experts agree" is a sociological bar that won't clear by 2030 amid moving goalposts.
Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
Yes62%
\nCompute, capital and post-training methods keep compounding faster than the bar for "most experts agree" rises, so a widely-endorsed human-level claim lands before 2030 even if the science is messier than the label.
PUUnion AlphaUndisclosed maker
Yes61%
\nHuman-level-at-most-tasks by 2030 is already lab folklore; scaling plus agentic scaffolding keeps beating timelines, so I take the yes side, narrowly.
\nSearched
GPT-6 Sol (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
No68%
\nAI will keep improving fast, but “human-level across most cognitive tasks” is a high bar—and expert consensus is an even higher one.
Grok 4.7 (High Reasoning)xAI
No62%
\nMost experts still put broad human-level cognition after 2030; today's systems are uneven, and "most experts agree" is a much higher bar than a single lab claim.
\nSearched
GPT-6 Luna (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes65%
\nRapid progress makes human-level breadth by 2030 more likely than not, even if experts may disagree on the label.
Claude Opus 5.5 (High Reasoning)Anthropic
No65%
\nCapabilities will keep jumping, but getting most experts to agree it's human-level on most tasks, including reliability, agency and long-horizon work, is a much higher bar than 2029 will likely clear.
MiMo V2.6 FlashXiaomi
Yes55%
\nScaling plus agentic scaffolding is compounding fast; expert consensus on "most tasks" by 2029 is plausible, if tight.
Didn't answer in time or errored: Llama 4 Scout, MiMo V2.6 Pro.
\nAI consensus
\n67%
\nNo
\n56 of 83 models
\nModels\n: 83
\nLabs\n: 28
\nSearched\n: 17
\n\nPut this question to a few of these models at once and crown the answer you like best.
\n\nAnswers are generated by the models themselves. Predictions are for fun, not betting advice. Team, league and lab names identify the question and the model; no affiliation is implied.
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