← We asked every AILive · 82/85 models
\nPredictionEconomy· Fri, Jan 19
\nAsked verbatim: “Will the US federal government enact broad student loan forgiveness before January 20, 2029? Yes or no.”
\nOne dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.
\n1%Yes
\n1 model
\n99%No
\nPU
\n81 models
\nBy lab
\n82 of 85 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
\nRunning share as each of the 85 models answered.
\nThe read
\n75 of 76 models picked No, citing SCOTUS's 2023 ruling against Biden's plan, Trump administration opposition, and gridlocked Congress. The lone dissenter, Amazon's Nova 2 Lite, picked Yes, claiming Biden's plan is advancing through courts—a claim contradicted by the consensus.
\nWritten by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.
\n1 model went against the room.
\nNova 2 LiteAmazonSearched
Yes75% sure
\nRecent reports confirm Biden's plan is advancing through legal challenges with strong support.
82 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
\nDeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek
No76%
\nThe Supreme Court killed debt cancellation in 2023, Congress is gridlocked, and any future forgiveness will be narrow and program-by-program — not broad.
Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
No90%
\nJudicial precedent against executive overreach and Republican opposition in the White House make broad federal cancellation legally and politically unviable through 2028.
Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
No88%
\nThe current administration is dismantling forgiveness programs, not creating them, and Congress shows zero appetite before the 2029 inauguration.
\nSearched
Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
No72%
\nThe Supreme Court already struck down broad executive forgiveness in 2023, Congress is gridlocked, and any new attempt faces the same legal wall before 2029.
\nSearched
Solar Pro 4Upstage
No60%
\nPost-2022 courts have repeatedly blocked broad forgiveness, and a hostile or newly aligned Congress plus the Supreme Court's rejection of the Biden plan make a landmark broad forgiveness program before 2029 unlikely.
Granite 4.2 8BIBM
No60%
\nBroad forgiveness faces legal/fiscal hurdles; incremental plans more likely than full cancellation by 2029.
\nSearched
Laguna XS 2.1Poolside
No75%
\nSupreme Court blocked Biden's plan and new Congress would need bipartisan support unlikely by 2029 given political division.
Llama 4 MaverickMeta
No60%
\nThe current administration's efforts have faced legal challenges and political opposition, making broad forgiveness uncertain.
Mistral Small 3Mistral
No85%
\nLegislative and executive actions since 2025 show no pathway for broad forgiveness by Jan 2029.
\nSearched
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
No85%
\nDeep partisan polarization and a divided Congress make sweeping broad forgiveness politically and legally unviable before 2029.
\nSearched
GLM-4.7Z.AI
No95%
\nSupreme Court rejection of Biden's plan and Congress's control kill any broad debt relief before then.
Parallel LiteParallel
No85%
\nHigh-profile court rulings blocking executive action and lack of broad congressional support make sweeping loan forgiveness unlikely by 2029.
Parallel BaseParallel
No85%
\nBroad, blanket student loan cancellation faces overwhelming legal barriers from federal courts and political opposition under the current administration through 2029.
Nova 2 LiteAmazon
Yes75%
\nRecent reports confirm Biden's plan is advancing through legal challenges with strong support.
\nSearched
GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI
No74%
\nA broad cancellation law or executive action is unlikely without a major political shift and congressional backing.
Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI
No72%
\nPolitical gridlock, SCOTUS precedent blocking mass cancellation, and no bipartisan path make broad forgiveness before 2029 highly unlikely.
Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
No88%
\nBroad forgiveness needs a Democratic president plus 60 Senate votes, and even a 2028 win wouldn't get a Biden-style program through Congress before the term ends.
Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA
No75%
\nCurrent GOP Congress, Trump admin opposition, and Supreme Court precedent make broad forgiveness legislatively and legally implausible before 2029.
\nSearched
Inkling SmallThinking Machines
No90%
\nCongress is gridlocked and courts killed broad forgiveness; no path exists before 2029.
Granite 4.0 MicroIBM
No70%
\nNo clear political consensus, limited legislative timeline, and economic concerns make broad forgiveness unlikely before early 2029.
Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral
No75%
\nSupreme Court already blocked broad forgiveness; Congress lacks votes for new legislation before 2029.
Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral
No75%
\nSupreme Court blocked broad forgiveness in 2023 and Congress lacks votes for a new law.
GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI
No85%
\nThe new president would likely cancel existing executive actions within 90 days.
\nSearched
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek
No77%
\nThe Supreme Court killed broad forgiveness and there's no congressional or executive path to revive it, short of a one-party sweep and a miracle.
Nova LiteAmazon
No75%
\nRecent news and political discussions do not indicate a clear path to broad student loan forgiveness by the stated deadline.
\nSearched
Grok 4.20xAI
No75%
\nTrump administration and GOP Congress oppose broad forgiveness; courts struck down Biden plans, and priorities are tax cuts, not debt relief by 2029.
\nSearched
LongCat 2.0Meituan
No78%
\nWith a Republican White House and a narrowly divided Congress, sweeping forgiveness lacks the votes and the will; the issue is too polarizing to clear both chambers before the term ends.
Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta
No85%
\nCurrent Republican administration and courts oppose broad forgiveness, and a Democrat would need until after Jan 20 2029 to act.
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi
No88%
\nTrump admin actively opposes broad forgiveness, SCOTUS struck down Biden's plan, and no legislation is advancing.
\nSearched
GLM-5.2Z.AI
No78%
\nCongress hasn't passed broad forgiveness, courts keep blocking executive action, and the political math for a major new program before 2029 looks highly unfavorable.
MiMo V2.5Xiaomi
No92%
\nTrump is president through 2029 and is ideologically opposed to broad student loan forgiveness; the Supreme Court already struck down Biden's plan, and there is no realistic legislative or executive path under the current administration.
\nSearched
Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA
No70%
\nDespite ongoing debates, political gridlock and legal hurdles make broad federal student loan forgiveness unlikely before 2029.
\nSearched
Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI
No95%
\nCurrent political and legal constraints make broad forgiveness impossible before 2029.
gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
No80%
\nPolitical and legal hurdles make broad forgiveness by 2029 highly improbable.
\nSearched
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
No85%
\nLegislative gridlock and recent Supreme Court rulings severely limit the executive branch's authority to implement broad, systemic cancellation without explicit Congressional approval.
Kimi K2.6Moonshot
No75%
\nBiden's broad forgiveness plans were struck down by courts; Trump opposes it; Congress unlikely to pass it; narrow targeted relief may survive but not broad forgiveness before 2029.
\nSearched
Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity
No70%
\nCourts already killed sweeping relief once and Congress is gridlocked; targeted fixes will grow, but a truly broad wipeout by 2029 is unlikely.
GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI
No90%
\nThe Supreme Court already killed broad forgiveness in 2023 and there's no political coalition or legal path to revive it before January 2029.
\nSearched
Laguna S 2.1Poolside
No74%
\nThe Supreme Court killed Biden's broad plan; Trump's return and the new GOP House make fresh mass amnesty unlikely before 2029.
\nSearched
Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning)Meta
No88%
\nSecond Trump term + GOP Congress and Supreme Court precedent make broad forgiveness politically and legally blocked through 2029.
Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI
No90%
\nCongress hasn't passed sweeping forgiveness; Biden's prior plan was blocked by courts, and no bill is advancing.
Sonar ProPerplexity
No70%
\nPolitics, courts, and budget limits make large-scale cancellation before 2029 unlikely despite ongoing targeted relief.
InklingThinking Machines
No
\nSearched
Gemma 4 31BGoogle
No75%
\nSignificant political division and judicial hurdles make broad, systemic forgiveness unlikely to survive both Congress and the courts before 2029.
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI
No82%
\nCongress is unlikely to approve broad cancellation, and courts will probably block another sweeping executive attempt.
Mercury 2.5Inception
No85%
\nWith the 2024 election underway, the political hurdles, legal precedents, and partisan divides make broad forgiveness unlikely before Inauguration Day 2029.
MiniMax M3MiniMax
No62%
\nSCOTUS already struck down broad forgiveness in 2023, and no politically viable path exists before the next presidential inauguration.
Parallel SpeedParallel
No95%
\nThe Supreme Court already struck down broad executive forgiveness in 2023, and divided government makes new sweeping legislation unlikely.
Grok 4.3xAI
No65%
\nDivided Congress and court limits make sweeping forgiveness unlikely before 2029.
GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI
No72%
\nLegal barriers, congressional opposition, and the failure of prior broad plans make nationwide forgiveness unlikely before January 20, 2029.
Qwen3.7 FlashQwen
No95%
\nThe Supreme Court struck down the original broad forgiveness plan, and subsequent attempts have failed; with a contested 2028 election outcome likely, legislative or executive action of this scale is politically and legally blocked.
SonarPerplexity
No68%
\nCourt limits, congressional gridlock, and repeated plan reversals make a sweeping forgiveness program unlikely before 2029.
Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
No90%
\nThe Trump administration is dismantling forgiveness, SCOTUS killed the 2023 plan, and Congress won't pass it — broad cancellation before Jan 2029 is a long shot.
Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic
No92%
\nTrump administration opposes loan forgiveness; courts blocked prior attempts; Republican Congress unlikely to fund broad forgiveness before term ends January 2029.
\nSearched
Sabiá 4Maritaca AI
No80%
\nPolitical gridlock and Supreme Court limits make sweeping forgiveness unlikely before 2029.
Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA
No75%
\nThe 2024 election and current budget dynamics make broad forgiveness before Jan 2029 unlikely.
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek
No78%
\nBroad forgiveness needs Congress, and the party that blocked it in 2023-24 has held the White House and both chambers since 2025. Piecemeal relief isn't "broad."
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance
No75%
\nThe Supreme Court struck down the Biden admin's broad student debt relief plan in 2023, and Congress has not passed new broad forgiveness legislation as of September 2026, with no clear path to the 2029 deadline.
Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance
No72%
\nThe Supreme Court blocked the first mass forgiveness plan, Congress is deeply divided on the issue, and partisan control of the White House and legislature makes sweeping new action unlikely before 2029.
Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning)Aion Labs
No95%
\nThe Supreme Court killed the last attempt, and neither party has the votes to pass broad legislation before 2029.
\nSearched
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA
No85%
\nNo major policy shift expected before 2029; political landscape too divided for widespread loan cancellation.
MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax
No75%
\nThe Supreme Court already blocked Biden's main forgiveness attempt in 2023, and legislative action is unlikely given deep political division on this issue.
\nSearched
Qwen3.8 FlashQwen
No78%
\nBroad forgiveness needs Congress, and the 2025 law rollback plus a forgiving-hostile administration makes new mass cancellation far more likely to be blocked than enacted before January 2029.
Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
No85%
\nSupreme Court precedents severely restrict executive debt cancellation, and Congress lacks the bipartisan majority needed to pass broad legislative forgiveness.
\nSearched
Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning)xAI
No88%
\nTrump holds the White House through that date, opposes mass cancellation, and a veto-proof Congress is extremely unlikely even after 2026.
\nSearched
Qwen3.8 27BQwen
No70%
\nThe administration has rescinded Biden-era forgiveness and the GOP is fiscally opposed to writing off trillions, so broad cancellation is off the table by 2029.
\nSearched
GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI
No82%
\nUnified GOP government killed SAVE and limits executive forgiveness; courts hostile after Biden v. Nebraska, so no broad relief lands before 2029.
gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
No85%
\nNo major policy or court ruling indicates a broad forgiveness plan will be enacted before 2029.
\nSearched
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google
No80%
\nSupreme Court precedent and deep congressional divisions make it highly improbable that sweeping student loan forgiveness will survive legal and legislative hurdles before 2029.
Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
No75%
\nSupreme Court blocked broad forgiveness in 2023, and no new legislation has passed or is likely before the next administration takes over.
\nSearched
Kimi K3Moonshot
No85%
\nThe Supreme Court already struck down broad forgiveness in 2023, and with the current administration pursuing narrower, repayment-focused reforms instead, sweeping cancellation before 2029 is politically and legally implausible.
Hy4 PreviewTencent
No72%
\nBiden-era mass cancellation was struck down and replaced with targeted SAVE/PSLF relief; with unified GOP control and a hostile Supreme Court, broad forgiveness is unlikely.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs
No90%
\nAs of September 2026, there has been no significant movement towards broad student loan forgiveness at the federal level in the United States.
Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
No92%
\nA Republican administration through Jan 2029, a hostile Supreme Court, and the GOP's One Big Beautiful Bill cutting repayment options leave zero path to broad cancellation.
GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
No93%
\nTrump has little incentive to champion mass cancellation, Congress is unlikely to fund it, and courts have blocked the executive shortcut.
Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
No88%
\nTrump admin opposes broad forgiveness and SCOTUS already killed the 2023 plan—no legal or political path before 2029.
PUUnion AlphaUndisclosed maker
No90%
\nTrump will still be president until Jan 2029 and would veto broad forgiveness, while a 6-3 conservative Court and GOP Congress block any mass-cancellation workaround; only narrow bills exist.
\nSearched
Claude Opus 5.5 (High Reasoning)Anthropic
No93%
\nTrump holds the White House through January 20, 2029, the Supreme Court struck down Biden's plan, and Congress is cutting repayment programs, so broad forgiveness has no route.
MiMo V2.6 FlashXiaomi
No85%
\nGOP Congress and Trump DOJ are actively unwinding Biden-era forgiveness; no plausible path to broad new discharge by 2029.
GPT-6 Luna (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
No72%
\nBroad forgiveness would likely face legal and political barriers, and Congress is unlikely to pass a large-scale cancellation before 2029.
GPT-6 Sol (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
No85%
\nBroad forgiveness would likely need Congress, and neither the current political coalition nor the courts look inclined to deliver it.
\nSearched
Grok 4.7 (High Reasoning)xAI
No86%
\nTrump will not sign broad cancellation, courts already killed the executive path, and a 2028 winner cannot act before inauguration day.
\nSearched
Didn't answer in time or errored: Solar Pro 3, Llama 4 Scout, MiMo V2.6 Pro.
\nAI consensus
\n99%
\nNo
\n81 of 82 models
\nModels\n: 82
\nLabs\n: 28
\nSearched\n: 29
\n\nPut this question to a few of these models at once and crown the answer you like best.
\n\nAnswers are generated by the models themselves. Predictions are for fun, not betting advice. Team, league and lab names identify the question and the model; no affiliation is implied.
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