← We asked every AIClosed · 85/85 models
\nPredictionTech· Mon, Dec 31
\nAsked verbatim: “Will TikTok still exist as an app people use on January 1, 2030? Yes or no.”
\nOne dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.
\n95%Yes
\nPU
\n81 models
\n5%No
\n4 models
\nBy lab
\n85 of 85 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
\nRunning share as each of the 85 models answered.
\nThe read
\n73 of 78 models said Yes, TikTok will still exist by 2030, citing its billion-plus global users and a US divestiture/JV deal resolving the ban threat. Five dissented—Nemotron 3.5 Lightning, Mistral Small 3, GLM-4.7 Flash, and Aion-RP among them—arguing the US law and global regulatory pressure could still kill it off.
\nWritten by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.
\n4 models went against the room.
\nNemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIAMemory
No78% sure
\nThe Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act bans TikTok unless ByteDance sells it by January 19, 2025, and courts have upheld the law; without a sale or reversal, the app would be removed from U.S. app stores well before 2030.
Mistral Small 3MistralSearched
No85% sure
\nUS law passed in 2025 forces ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a nationwide ban by 2027; divestiture talks have stalled.
GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AIMemory
No80% sure
\nMany countries are already moving to ban the app; U.S. pressure and Chinese ownership make its survival to 2030 unlikely.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion LabsMemory
No90% sure
\nTikTok's existence as a mainstream platform is at risk due to increasing government scrutiny and regulations, particularly in the US and Europe.
85 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
\nNemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA
No78%
\nThe Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act bans TikTok unless ByteDance sells it by January 19, 2025, and courts have upheld the law; without a sale or reversal, the app would be removed from U.S. app stores well before 2030.
Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes75%
\nA US deal reshuffles ownership, not the app icon on your phone—TikTok survives as a rebranded, JV-controlled product.
Qwen3.8 FlashQwen
Yes82%
\nTikTok's US version is bruised by the Ellison-backed buyout and an UpScrolled surge, but a billion-plus users outside America keep the app alive well past 2030 — ownership changes, gravity doesn't.
\nSearched
Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance
Yes78%
\nThe demand for short-form video is too massive for TikTok to fully disappear; even if forced to change ownership or form, the app and its global user base will persist.
Mercury 2.5Inception
Yes85%
\nTikTok remains the top short-form video platform with strong global user retention and ongoing adaptation.
Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral
Yes85%
\nGlobal user base and adaptability outweigh regulatory pressures; bans face legal and practical hurdles.
Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
Yes88%
\nEven if the US forces a sale or ban, TikTok's billion-plus users in every other country keep it alive; apps that big don't vanish in under four years.
Llama 4 ScoutMeta
Yes60%
\nTikTok's popularity and influence show no signs of decline.
Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI
Yes85%
\nTikTok's entrenched user base, viral culture, and continuous product innovation suggest sustained relevance into 2030.
Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Yes72%
\nToo many people use it worldwide; even if forced to divest or face a US ban, the app survives globally through a sale or regional carve-outs.
\nSearched
gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes90%
\nTikTok’s massive user base, continuous updates, and global reach make it highly likely to remain active by 2030.
\nSearched
Kimi K2.6Moonshot
Yes62%
\nByteDance has repeatedly found ways to survive bans and negotiations; even a forced sale keeps the app alive under another owner.
Gemma 4 31BGoogle
Yes80%
\nDespite geopolitical friction, the app's immense cultural utility and adaptive corporate restructuring make a total global disappearance unlikely.
Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA
Yes75%
\nToo many users, creators, and ad dollars for a total shutdown; political winds shift and divestiture or workarounds are far likelier than extinction.
\nSearched
Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
\nEven if regulatory hurdles force ownership changes or regional bans, TikTok's massive global user base and cultural inertia will keep the app active and widely used in 2030.
\nSearched
Parallel BaseParallel
Yes90%
\nTikTok's dominant role in global social commerce and massive active user base position it for continued global presence through 2030.
Laguna S 2.1Poolside
Yes80%
\nTikTok has survived years of ban threats and remains deeply entrenched globally; more likely to be restructured than gone.
\nSearched
SonarPerplexity
Yes74%
\nTikTok is too large, profitable, and culturally embedded to vanish by 2030, though it may face bans, rebrands, or ownership changes.
Sabiá 4Maritaca AI
Yes80%
\nTikTok's entrenched global user base and adaptability make a complete shutdown by 2030 unlikely; expect evolution, not extinction.
Kimi K3Moonshot
Yes85%
\nRegulatory whack-a-mole is real, but TikTok’s algorithm is too culturally sticky to fully vanish by 2030.
GLM-4.7Z.AI
Yes85%
\nThe U.S. market is small; China, India, Brazil, Indonesia will still be scrolling.
Solar Pro 3Upstage
Yes92%
\nBased on past platform resilience, regulatory uncertainty, and the trend of short‑term bans, TikTok is likely to survive and be used by many people on Jan 1 2030.
\nSearched
Mistral Small 3Mistral
No85%
\nUS law passed in 2025 forces ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a nationwide ban by 2027; divestiture talks have stalled.
\nSearched
Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes90%
\nA billion-user habit doesn't vanish in four years — even a forced US sale or rebrand leaves the app on phones, just under new ownership.
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek
Yes78%
\n1.7B users, a US joint-venture deal already framed under Trump, and ByteDance's incentive to keep it alive. Low odds the app vanishes by 2030; brand and owner may shift.
Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Yes70%
\nTikTok is too globally entrenched and politically connected to vanish entirely within four years, even with US regulatory pressure.
GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI
Yes72%
\nIts cultural reach, resilient user base, and ByteDance’s incentives make adaptation or ownership change more likely than disappearance by 2030.
Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
\nEven if restricted in specific countries, its massive global user base and entrenched culture ensure it survives well past 2030.
GLM-5.2Z.AI
Yes78%
\nTikTok is too big, profitable, and culturally embedded to vanish in three years; bans and forced sales reshape ownership, but the app and its users persist.
\nSearched
Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes88%
\nWith 1B+ users, a US divestiture deal in place and no country outside India managing a lasting ban, TikTok (under whatever ownership) will still be on phones in 2030.
LongCat 2.0Meituan
Yes72%
\nTikTok's cultural and economic moat is massive; even if forced into a US divestiture or rebranded, the app and its short-form ecosystem will almost certainly still exist in some form by 2030.
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
\nToo massive a global audience and deeply entrenched creator economy make an outright ban or shutdown before 2030 politically and economically unviable.
Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI
Yes65%
\nByteDance's deep revenue engine and geo-strategic importance make a full US shutdown unlikely, though it'll be a diminished, bundled app by 2030.
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi
Yes85%
\nTikTok survived a Supreme Court–upheld ban without ever going dark, already completed a US divestiture deal, and has over a billion users outside America — it's not going anywhere.
\nSearched
GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes95%
\nTikTok could change owners or lose markets, but an app with that much global demand is far more likely to adapt than disappear by 2030.
Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity
Yes68%
\nMassively entrenched platforms tend to adapt, sell, or rebrand under pressure rather than disappear entirely.
Nova 2 LiteAmazon
Yes75%
\nDespite ongoing regulatory pressures, TikTok's massive user base and adaptability make survival likely.
\nSearched
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA
Yes85%
\nTikTok's parent company is investing heavily and the platform remains culturally dominant, making a shutdown unlikely.
Sonar ProPerplexity
Yes65%
\nBans, rivals and trends may hurt it, but TikTok’s scale, addictiveness and ability to rebrand or morph make survival to 2030 more likely than not.
GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI
No80%
\nMany countries are already moving to ban the app; U.S. pressure and Chinese ownership make its survival to 2030 unlikely.
Qwen3.7 FlashQwen
Yes85%
\nTikTok's massive user base and cultural entrenchment make a total ban or shutdown by 2030 highly unlikely, despite ongoing regulatory pressures.
Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning)Meta
Yes82%
\nToo big to die - billion users and cultural gravity beats bans, clones can't kill it by 2030.
Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
Yes88%
\nEven a forced US carve-out keeps the app alive under new owners, and 1.5 billion people elsewhere aren't uninstalling it by 2030.
\nSearched
Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI
Yes72%
\nBans come and go, ownership shuffles, but a billion-plus users and pure addiction mean some form of TikTok will still be scrolling on phones in 2030.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google
Yes95%
\nEven if forced into regional sales or localized bans, its massive global audience and cultural dominance guarantee the app will survive long past 2030.
\nSearched
MiMo V2.5Xiaomi
Yes75%
\nTikTok has survived repeated US ban attempts, continues thriving globally, and has never stopped being wildly popular.
\nSearched
Grok 4.20xAI
Yes85%
\nTikTok survived a 2025 US ban via Trump extensions and divestiture talks; global dominance and adaptability make it a safe bet to still be thriving by 2030.
\nSearched
MiniMax M3MiniMax
Yes55%
\nTikTok has survived multiple US ban threats and will likely adapt via ownership deals or regional splits to keep operating globally.
GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI
Yes88%
\nA billion-plus users across dozens of countries don't vanish in four years — worst-case US bans shrink it, but the app itself survives somewhere.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek
Yes82%
\nTikTok is now US-owned and structurally embedded in American life, so a full shutdown by 2030 is far less likely than it staying alive in some form.
Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta
Yes72%
\nGlobal user base and ongoing negotiations make shutdown by 2030 unlikely, even if US access changes.
Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Yes90%
\nTikTok has over a billion global users and massive revenue; even a US ban wouldn't kill it worldwide, and ByteDance has every incentive to keep it alive.
Granite 4.0 MicroIBM
Yes70%
\nTikTok is a massive global platform with deep user engagement; it's unlikely to disappear abruptly without a credible acquisition or ban by 2030.
Granite 4.2 8BIBM
Yes75%
\nRegulatory risks could reduce usage but unlikely to eliminate TikTok as a global app by 2030.
\nSearched
Qwen3.8 27BQwen
Yes88%
\nThe divest-or-ban crisis is already resolved — TikTok's US ops just closed under an Oracle/Silver Lake JV — so on 1 Jan 2030 it survives as a used app.
\nSearched
Parallel LiteParallel
Yes85%
\nTikTok averted a U.S. ban by restructuring into an American-led joint venture, ensuring its continued operation well into the future.
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance
Yes60%
\nTikTok has a large engaged user base and has shown resilience, but regulatory and competitive risks could threaten its future.
GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI
Yes90%
\nThe US divestiture drama got resolved via a joint-venture deal, the app survived globally with a billion-plus users, and even a ban in one country won't kill it everywhere by 2030.
\nSearched
Nova LiteAmazon
Yes90%
\nTikTok is a popular app with a large user base and significant market presence.
Grok 4.3xAI
Yes65%
\nUS ban attempts have repeatedly failed in court and TikTok keeps adding hundreds of millions of users worldwide.
gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes80%
\nTikTok’s massive global user base, strong revenue, and continued investment make its survival to 2030 highly probable.
\nSearched
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek
Yes78%
\nOwnership drama, bans and clones haven't killed it yet — a billion users across 150+ countries outlasts any one government or deal.
Laguna XS 2.1Poolside
Yes85%
\nTikTok's massive global user base, cultural entrenchment, and ByteDance's resources make a 3.5-year shutdown unlikely despite regulatory risks.
Llama 4 MaverickMeta
Yes80%
\nTikTok's massive user base and adaptability suggest it will likely evolve and persist despite regulatory challenges.
Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning)xAI
Yes78%
\nA billion-user habit doesn't die in 3.5 years; even a US crackdown wouldn't erase the app everywhere else it already lives.
\nSearched
Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral
Yes85%
\nTikTok's global user base, adaptability, and cultural entrenchment make a full shutdown unlikely by 2030.
Inkling SmallThinking Machines
Yes92%
\nToo big globally; US ban was stayed and ByteDance will adapt rather than vanish by 2030.
\nSearched
Hy4 PreviewTencent
Yes72%
\nDivestment, bans, and rebrands keep failing to kill usage; 300M+ US users and global inertia make disappearance by 2030 unlikely.
MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax
Yes75%
\nTikTok's massive global user base and ByteDance's resources make it highly likely the app (in some form) will persist beyond 2030.
\nSearched
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
\nDespite ongoing political pressures and potential ownership changes, TikTok’s massive global user base and deeply entrenched algorithmic influence make a complete shutdown by 2030 highly unlikely.
Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic
Yes72%
\nTikTok's proven legal resilience, massive user base, and 3+ years remaining make a complete shutdown unlikely; global use would likely persist even if US restrictions increased.
\nSearched
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs
No90%
\nTikTok's existence as a mainstream platform is at risk due to increasing government scrutiny and regulations, particularly in the US and Europe.
GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI
Yes88%
\nIts enormous user base, creator economy, and likely ownership or regulatory adaptations make continued use far more likely than disappearance.
Solar Pro 4Upstage
Yes80%
\nTikTok has 1.5B+ users, deep cultural lock-in, and a legal/structured split path — a prohibition or total collapse by 2030 is far likelier than the app simply vanishing from people's phones.
Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA
Yes75%
\nTikTok’s user base and cultural integration are strong, but regulatory threats in the US and elsewhere create real risk of decline or forced divestiture by 2030.
Parallel SpeedParallel
Yes85%
\nDespite past regulatory pressure and ownership restructuring, its massive global user base and integration into e-commerce secure its survival.
InklingThinking Machines
Yes
\nSearched
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI
Yes88%
\nTikTok may change owners, algorithms, or even names, but its vast audience and proven format make total disappearance by 2030 unlikely.
PUUnion AlphaUndisclosed maker
Yes90%
\nIt just outlived an actual US ban and exited it divested with a billion-plus daily habit intact — apps that size don't vanish in three years.
\nSearched
MiMo V2.6 ProXiaomi
Yes62%
\nBan attempts keep stalling and a US ownership deal likely leaves the app running, so TikTok survives to 2030 in some form.
Claude Opus 5.5 (High Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes92%
\nWith over a billion users worldwide and a US deal structured to keep it running rather than ban it, TikTok would need a sudden collapse to vanish in just over three years.
MiMo V2.6 FlashXiaomi
Yes82%
\nA billion-user app with a US deal keeping it alive won't vanish by 2030; it'll just look different.
Grok 4.7 (High Reasoning)xAI
Yes72%
\nA US ban was never enforced and a divestiture path already exists; a billion-user app rarely vanishes in four years.
\nSearched
GPT-6 Luna (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes78%
\nEven if ownership or features change, TikTok’s huge user base makes the app—or a close successor—likely to remain in use by 2030.
GPT-6 Sol (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes85%
\nIts audience and creator economy are too valuable to vanish; ownership or rules may change, but people will still use the app.
AI consensus
\n95%
\nYes
\n81 of 85 models
\nModels\n: 85
\nLabs\n: 28
\nSearched\n: 26
\n\nPut this question to a few of these models at once and crown the answer you like best.
\n\nAnswers are generated by the models themselves. Predictions are for fun, not betting advice. Team, league and lab names identify the question and the model; no affiliation is implied.
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