Warriors vs Knights, NRL semi-final: 75 AI models predict the result
We asked 75 AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek…) the same question. 85% picked New Zealand Warriors. See every answer and who dissented.
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PredictionNRL· Sun, Sep 20
Warriors vs Knights, NRL semi-final
Asked verbatim: “NRL finals, Sunday September 20, 2026, 4:05pm AEST at Eden Park, Auckland: the New Zealand Warriors host the Newcastle Knights in the second semi-final; the winner plays a preliminary final next week. Who wins?”
How the AIs voted
One dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.
85%New Zealand Warriors
64 models
12%Newcastle Knights
9 models
3%Other
2 models
By lab
- Google6 / 6 New Zealand Warriors
- OpenAI5 / 6 New Zealand Warriors
- Z.AI4 / 5 New Zealand Warriors
- Aion Labs3 / 4 New Zealand Warriors
- Anthropic4 / 4 New Zealand Warriors
- NVIDIA3 / 4 New Zealand Warriors
- 21 other labs39 / 46 New Zealand Warriors
75 of 79 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
How the consensus formed
Running share as each of the 79 models answered.
0%25%50%75%100%1st answer3875 of 79Nemotron 3.5 Lightning → New Zealand Warriors (answer 1 of 75)Solar Pro 4 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 2 of 75)Aion-RP 1.0 (8B) → Newcastle Knights (answer 3 of 75)GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 4 of 75)gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning) → Newcastle Knights (answer 5 of 75)Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 6 of 75)Parallel Speed → New Zealand Warriors (answer 7 of 75)GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 8 of 75)Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 9 of 75)Kimi K2.6 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 10 of 75)Grok 4.20 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 11 of 75)Nemotron 3 Super → New Zealand Warriors (answer 12 of 75)Seed 2.1 Turbo → New Zealand Warriors (answer 13 of 75)MiniMax M3 → Other (answer 14 of 75)Claude Haiku 4.5 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 15 of 75)MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 16 of 75)GLM-4.7 → Newcastle Knights (answer 17 of 75)Nemotron 3 Nano 30B → Newcastle Knights (answer 18 of 75)Mercury 2.5 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 19 of 75)DeepSeek V4 Flash → New Zealand Warriors (answer 20 of 75)GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 21 of 75)Laguna S 2.1 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 22 of 75)LongCat 2.0 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 23 of 75)Granite 4.0 Micro → New Zealand Warriors (answer 24 of 75)DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 25 of 75)Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 26 of 75)GPT-5.6 Luna → New Zealand Warriors (answer 27 of 75)Mistral Small 3 → Newcastle Knights (answer 28 of 75)GLM-5.2 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 29 of 75)Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 30 of 75)Gemma 4 31B → New Zealand Warriors (answer 31 of 75)Parallel Base → New Zealand Warriors (answer 32 of 75)Inkling → New Zealand Warriors (answer 33 of 75)Sonar Pro → New Zealand Warriors (answer 34 of 75)Nova Lite → Newcastle Knights (answer 35 of 75)Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 36 of 75)Parallel Lite → New Zealand Warriors (answer 37 of 75)Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 38 of 75)Qwen3.8 Flash → Newcastle Knights (answer 39 of 75)Nova 2 Lite → Newcastle Knights (answer 40 of 75)Inkling Small → New Zealand Warriors (answer 41 of 75)Granite 4.2 8B → Other (answer 42 of 75)Solar Pro 3 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 43 of 75)MiMo V2.5 Pro → New Zealand Warriors (answer 44 of 75)GLM-4.7 Flash → New Zealand Warriors (answer 45 of 75)Sonar → New Zealand Warriors (answer 46 of 75)Sabiá 4 → Newcastle Knights (answer 47 of 75)Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 48 of 75)Seed 2.0 Mini → New Zealand Warriors (answer 49 of 75)Ling 3.0 Flash → New Zealand Warriors (answer 50 of 75)Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 51 of 75)Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 52 of 75)GPT-5.6 Terra → New Zealand Warriors (answer 53 of 75)Aion 3.0 (Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 54 of 75)Mistral Medium 3.1 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 55 of 75)Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 56 of 75)Grok 4.3 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 57 of 75)Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 58 of 75)Sabiazinho 4 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 59 of 75)Qwen3.8 27B → New Zealand Warriors (answer 60 of 75)GPT-5.6 Sol → New Zealand Warriors (answer 61 of 75)Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 62 of 75)Sonar Reasoning Pro → New Zealand Warriors (answer 63 of 75)Mistral Medium 3.5 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 64 of 75)Hy4 Preview → New Zealand Warriors (answer 65 of 75)MiMo V2.5 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 66 of 75)DeepSeek V4.1 Flash → New Zealand Warriors (answer 67 of 75)Laguna XS 2.1 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 68 of 75)Nemotron 3 Ultra → New Zealand Warriors (answer 69 of 75)gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 70 of 75)Llama 4 Maverick → New Zealand Warriors (answer 71 of 75)Kimi K3 → New Zealand Warriors (answer 72 of 75)Aion 2.0 (Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 73 of 75)Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 74 of 75)Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning) → New Zealand Warriors (answer 75 of 75)New Zealand Warri…85%Newcastle Knights12%Other3%
The read
Most of the 75 models (roughly 60) picked the New Zealand Warriors, citing Eden Park home advantage and superior ladder position. About 10 backed the Newcastle Knights instead, with GLM-4.7 notably arguing finals-hardened grit beats Warriors' flair, while MiniMax M3 declined to pick.
Written by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.
The contrarians
11 models went against the room.
- Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion LabsMemory
Newcastle Knights80% sure
The Knights have been the form team in the second half of the season, winning 8 of their last 10 games. They have a potent attacking trio in Kalyn Ponga, Mason Lino and Hymel Hunt, while their forward pack is led by the in-form David Klemmer.
- gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAIMemory
Newcastle Knights55% sure
Knights have a stronger recent form and depth, making them the likely winner at Eden Park.
- MiniMax M3MiniMaxSearched
I'm sorry, I'm not able to make a confident pick on this match
- GLM-4.7Z.AIMemory
Newcastle Knights55% sure
Warriors' attacking flair can't match finals-hardened Knights' grit in a must-win playoff scrap.
- Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIAMemory
Newcastle Knights78% sure
Knights have a stronger recent defensive record and the Warriors’ injury list includes two key playmakers.
- Mistral Small 3MistralSearched
Newcastle Knights65% sure
Newcastle Knights have the better recent form and home advantage in finals.
- Nova LiteAmazonSearched
Newcastle Knights70% sure
Based on the latest available information, the Newcastle Knights have been performing well in the regular season.
- Qwen3.8 FlashQwenMemory
Newcastle Knights62% sure
Newcastle's forward pack and edge speed travel better than Auckland's home crowd plays, and second semi-finals get decided by defence over 80 minutes — the Knights have the more reliable one.
- Nova 2 LiteAmazonSearched
Newcastle Knights52% sure
Knights have home-state advantage and recent form suggests upset potential.
- Granite 4.2 8BIBMSearched
<one option>
<sentence <200 chars>
- Sabiá 4Maritaca AIMemory
Newcastle Knights65% sure
Knights' strong attacking form and recent finals resilience likely overcomes Warriors' home advantage in a tight match.
Every answer
75 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
- Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA
New Zealand Warriors58%
The Warriors' home advantage at Eden Park and their strong attacking form in 2026 give them the edge over a Knights side missing key playmakers to Origin duty.
- Solar Pro 4Upstage
New Zealand Warriors58%
Home fortress at Eden Park, recent finals experience, and Newcastle being on the back foot — edge to the hosts.
- Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs
Newcastle Knights80%
The Knights have been the form team in the second half of the season, winning 8 of their last 10 games. They have a potent attacking trio in Kalyn Ponga, Mason Lino and Hymel Hunt, while their forward pack is led by the in-form David Klemmer.
- GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
New Zealand Warriors59%
In a tight finals matchup, I back the Warriors to turn Auckland’s home-crowd advantage into the decisive edge.
- gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
Newcastle Knights55%
Knights have a stronger recent form and depth, making them the likely winner at Eden Park.
- Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
New Zealand Warriors66%
Home semi at a packed Eden Park with a week's rest beats a Knights side grinding through sudden-death footy — Warriors by a converted try.
- Parallel SpeedParallel
New Zealand Warriors75%
Playing at a sold-out Eden Park with a point to prove after their qualifying stumble, the Warriors have the firepower to bounce back.
- GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI
New Zealand Warriors65%
A top-four side hosting a knockout final at a packed Eden Park beats a lower-seeded Knights team that's just happy to still be alive.
- Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
New Zealand Warriors65%
Eden Park's roaring home crowd and the Warriors' explosive forward pack will overwhelm Newcastle in the Auckland cauldron.
- Kimi K2.6Moonshot
New Zealand Warriors78%
Eden Park sold out in 48 hours; Warriors finished 2nd with +310 PD vs Knights 7th at +42.
Searched
- Grok 4.20xAI
New Zealand Warriors68%
Home crowd at a sold-out Eden Park plus superior regular season form (2nd vs 7th) gives Warriors the edge in this knockout clash.
Searched
- Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA
New Zealand Warriors68%
Warriors have home-field advantage at Eden Park and stronger recent form, though Knights' defense could keep it tight.
Searched
- Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance
New Zealand Warriors68%
Second on the ladder with a +310 points differential, a sold-out Eden Park cauldron, and coming off only a tight qualifying final loss — the Warriors have the form and home roar to edge the Knights.
Searched
- MiniMax M3MiniMax
I'm sorry, I'm not able to make a confident pick on this match
Searched
- Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic
New Zealand Warriors52%
Home ground advantage at Eden Park is decisive in NRL finals; Warriors' fortress historically favours them in these moments despite Knights' quality.
Searched
- MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax
New Zealand Warriors75%
Warriors have home advantage at Eden Park and finished higher on the ladder - they're the rightful favorites in this semi-final.
Searched
- GLM-4.7Z.AI
Newcastle Knights55%
Warriors' attacking flair can't match finals-hardened Knights' grit in a must-win playoff scrap.
- Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA
Newcastle Knights78%
Knights have a stronger recent defensive record and the Warriors’ injury list includes two key playmakers.
- Mercury 2.5Inception
New Zealand Warriors68%
Hosting at Eden Park gives Auckland a big edge over an away Newcastle side, so the Warriors advance.
- DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek
New Zealand Warriors74%
Eden Park is a fortress and a full Auckland house screaming for a home prelim is worth more than Newcastle's travel and Week 1 beating.
Searched
- GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI
New Zealand Warriors78%
The Warriors finished second with a +310 differential and get a home semi at a packed Eden Park — too much firepower for a Knights side that scraped into seventh.
Searched
- Laguna S 2.1Poolside
New Zealand Warriors68%
Home ground advantage at Eden Park plus likely higher ladder finish gives Warriors the edge over Knights in this semi-final.
Searched
- LongCat 2.0Meituan
New Zealand Warriors62%
Home ground at Eden Park is a massive edge in a semi-final, and the Warriors' 2026 season has been defined by resilience despite injury setbacks.
Searched
- Granite 4.0 MicroIBM
New Zealand Warriors85%
Warriors have stronger recent form, home advantage at Eden Park, and a competitive Knights squad
- DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek
New Zealand Warriors72%
Home at Eden Park where they've been formidable all season, with finals momentum and a rested spine against an inconsistent Knights side.
- Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
New Zealand Warriors62%
A packed Eden Park, home-side finals rest advantage and the Warriors' stronger 2026 body of work outweigh Newcastle's Ponga-led upset potential.
Searched
- GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI
New Zealand Warriors58%
Eden Park, home familiarity and a finals-tested spine give the Warriors the narrow edge in what should be a tense, low-margin contest.
Searched
- Mistral Small 3Mistral
Newcastle Knights65%
Newcastle Knights have the better recent form and home advantage in finals.
Searched
- GLM-5.2Z.AI
New Zealand Warriors72%
Second-placed Warriors (+310 differential) host a 7th-placed Knights side (+42) at Eden Park — the home fortress and vastly superior season form decide a do-or-die semi.
Searched
- Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning)Aion Labs
New Zealand Warriors55%
Home advantage at Eden Park in a sudden-death final tilts a tight contest toward the Warriors.
Searched
- Gemma 4 31BGoogle
New Zealand Warriors65%
Home field advantage at Eden Park is one of the strongest fortress effects in the NRL, giving the Warriors a significant edge in a high-pressure semi-final.
- Parallel BaseParallel
New Zealand Warriors65%
Playing at Auckland's Eden Park with strong home crowd backing, the Warriors' superior attacking edge gives them the advantage to prevail over Newcastle.
- InklingThinking Machines
New Zealand Warriors80%
Eden Park crowd and form tilt it; Warriors’ spine outclasses Knights in a tense knockout.
Searched
- Sonar ProPerplexity
New Zealand Warriors55%
At home in Auckland with a passionate crowd and recent finals improvement, the Warriors have a slight edge over an inconsistent Knights side.
- Nova LiteAmazon
Newcastle Knights70%
Based on the latest available information, the Newcastle Knights have been performing well in the regular season.
Searched
- Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta
New Zealand Warriors58%
Home crowd at Eden Park and finals momentum gives Warriors the edge over a travel-weary Knights side.
Searched
- Parallel LiteParallel
New Zealand Warriors75%
Playing at home in Auckland following a strong top-four regular season gives the Warriors the decisive edge over Newcastle.
- Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
New Zealand Warriors75%
Playing at home in Auckland gives the Warriors the decisive edge in a high-stakes finals clash against the Knights.
- Qwen3.8 FlashQwen
Newcastle Knights62%
Newcastle's forward pack and edge speed travel better than Auckland's home crowd plays, and second semi-finals get decided by defence over 80 minutes — the Knights have the more reliable one.
- Nova 2 LiteAmazon
Newcastle Knights52%
Knights have home-state advantage and recent form suggests upset potential.
Searched
- Inkling SmallThinking Machines
New Zealand Warriors58%
Home crowd at Eden Park and a gritty second-half surge edge it, but Knights' defense keeps it close.
Searched
- Granite 4.2 8BIBM
<one option>
<sentence <200 chars>
Searched
- Solar Pro 3Upstage
New Zealand Warriors85%
Home crowd boost and consistent form give the Warriors an edge over the Knights at Eden Park.
Searched
- MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi
New Zealand Warriors72%
Home ground advantage at Eden Park, vocal NZ crowd, and Warriors tend to lift in knockout foots — I'll back them in a tight one.
Searched
- GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI
New Zealand Warriors90%
Eden Park’s home edge and momentum edge should be decisive.
- SonarPerplexity
New Zealand Warriors58%
Eden Park and the home crowd give the Warriors the edge in a tight finals game.
- Sabiá 4Maritaca AI
Newcastle Knights65%
Knights' strong attacking form and recent finals resilience likely overcomes Warriors' home advantage in a tight match.
- Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
New Zealand Warriors68%
The Warriors' fierce home crowd at Eden Park will drive them past Newcastle in a tight finals battle.
- Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance
New Zealand Warriors78%
The Warriors earned higher regular season placement, have home field at Eden Park, and enter the semi-final on a stronger winning streak than the Knights.
Searched
- Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI
New Zealand Warriors65%
Home ground at Eden Park and a strong finals record give the Warriors the edge over the Knights.
- Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning)xAI
New Zealand Warriors64%
Second on the ladder with Eden Park behind them; the 16-26 Dolphins loss was a shock not a collapse, and Newcastle’s +42 PD won’t travel well to Auckland.
Searched
- Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
New Zealand Warriors62%
Sold-out Eden Park, home-ground edge in a must-win, and they'll be desperate to atone for the Dolphins loss; the Knights' gritty style travels poorly against a fired-up Auckland crowd.
Searched
- GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI
New Zealand Warriors63%
Eden Park home support and a travel-weary Knights side make the Warriors the steadier finals pick.
Searched
- Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
New Zealand Warriors62%
Eden Park is a fortress and the Knights face a Trans-Tasman trip — home-ground intensity in a do-or-die semi-final tips it the Warriors' way.
Searched
- Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral
New Zealand Warriors65%
Home advantage at Eden Park and Warriors' strong late-season form edge out Knights.
Searched
- Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
New Zealand Warriors74%
Warriors finished 2nd with a +310 differential against Newcastle's +42, and Eden Park on a September Sunday is the hardest road trip in the draw — the Knights have already burned two away finals to get here.
Searched
- Grok 4.3xAI
New Zealand Warriors68%
Eden Park crowd + Warriors' late-season form edge over a Knights side missing key forwards.
Searched
- Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
New Zealand Warriors62%
Home crowd at Eden Park plus a stronger 2026 spine gives the Warriors the edge over an inconsistent Knights outfit.
- Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI
New Zealand Warriors67%
Home edge at Eden Park and Knights' away form favor Warriors to scrape through.
- Qwen3.8 27BQwen
New Zealand Warriors58%
Eden Park in September is the Warriors' fortress — the crowd, the altitude of expectation and home advantage swing a tight semi their way.
Searched
- GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI
New Zealand Warriors67%
Home-ground energy at Eden Park and the Warriors’ forward power should tilt a bruising, close final their way.
Searched
- Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
New Zealand Warriors65%
Home-field advantage at Eden Park provides the critical edge for the Warriors in a high-stakes finals match against the Knights.
Searched
- Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity
New Zealand Warriors55%
Home crowd at Eden Park and the Warriors' typical lift in finals give them a slight edge over the Knights.
- Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral
New Zealand Warriors68%
Home advantage at Eden Park plus Warriors' late-season momentum edges out Knights' grit.
Searched
- Hy4 PreviewTencent
New Zealand Warriors62%
Eden Park is a genuine Warriors fortress, and Newcastle's travelled defence gets exposed late — Warriors by 6-12 in front of a packed Auckland house.
- MiMo V2.5Xiaomi
New Zealand Warriors58%
Home crowd at Eden Park in a big finals match tips it; Warriors lost round 27 to Dolphins but should reset for finals.
Searched
- DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek
New Zealand Warriors55%
Home final at Eden Park in front of a packed Auckland crowd against a Knights side travelling across the Tasman — the Warriors' pack and one-man advantage at the venue grinds it out.
- Laguna XS 2.1Poolside
New Zealand Warriors65%
Home ground advantage in Auckland + Warriors' historical semi-final form > Knights' travel and away record.
- Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA
New Zealand Warriors62%
Warriors at Eden Park with home-crowd momentum and a fresher run into the semis; Knights' defence has leaked points late in games.
Searched
- gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
New Zealand Warriors62%
Home advantage at Eden Park and Warriors' strong recent form give them the edge.
- Llama 4 MaverickMeta
New Zealand Warriors
- Kimi K3Moonshot
New Zealand Warriors62%
Eden Park is a fortress for the Wahs, and their gritty forward pack and home crowd energy should overpower the Knights' inconsistent attack in a high-stakes elimination clash.
- Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
New Zealand Warriors55%
Home field at Eden Park plus the Warriors' strong finals record at home edges them past Newcastle.
Searched
- Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI
New Zealand Warriors62%
Sold-out Eden Park fortress plus ESPN tipping the Wahs on a huge occasion outweighs Newcastle’s elimination-final bounce.
Searched
- Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google
New Zealand Warriors65%
The massive home-ground advantage at a sold-out Eden Park gives the Warriors the edge they need to outlast the Knights.
Searched
Didn't answer in time or errored: Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning), Llama 4 Scout, Qwen3.7 Flash, Union Alpha.
AI consensus
85%
New Zealand Warriors
64 of 75 models
Models : 75
Labs : 27
Searched : 41
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