← We asked every AILive · 84/85 models
PredictionTech· Mon, Dec 31
Which company will be the biggest in the world in 2030?
Asked verbatim: “Which company will have the largest market capitalization in the world on January 1, 2030? Name one company.”
How the AIs voted
One dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.
62%NVIDIA
PU
52 models
21%Apple
18 models
15%Microsoft
13 models
1%Apple Incomplete
1 model
By lab
- OpenAI5 / 8 NVIDIA
- Google2 / 6 NVIDIA
- Anthropic5 / 5 NVIDIA
- Qwen4 / 5 NVIDIA
- xAI5 / 5 NVIDIA
- Z.AI4 / 5 NVIDIA
- 22 other labs27 / 50 NVIDIA
84 of 85 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
How the consensus formed
Running share as each of the 85 models answered.
The read
Most models picked NVIDIA (about 45), citing AI chip dominance, followed by Apple (about 18) for ecosystem strength and Microsoft (about 13) for cloud/AI leadership. Xiaomi's MiMo V2.5 gave an oddly incomplete dissenting answer that cut off mid-sentence.
Written by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.
The contrarians
32 models went against the room.
Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIASearched
Apple75% sure
Apple's market cap hit $4.85T by Sept 2026, and its 14% CAGR to 2030 would reach $8.2T, outpacing rivals like Microsoft and NVIDIA.
Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIAMemory
Apple Inc72% sure
Apple's massive cash reserves, services growth, and entrenched ecosystem create a durable moat unmatched by peers.
GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAIMemory
Microsoft24% sure
Its cloud, AI, and enterprise ecosystem give it the strongest durable path to surpass today’s leaders by 2030.
Nova LiteAmazonMemory
Apple Inc70% sure
Apple has consistently shown strong financial performance and innovation.
Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)GoogleMemory
Microsoft42% sure
Its enterprise cloud dominance and software monetization compound resiliently across the entire AI stack without single-hardware-cycle risk.
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDanceSearched
Apple68% sure
It has a massive, resilient ecosystem, consistent revenue growth, and has held the top market cap spot for years, with projected AI integration driving continued valuation gains through 2030.
Mercury 2.5InceptionMemory
Apple78% sure
Its massive ecosystem, services growth, and cash reserves give it the most durable moat heading into the 2030s.
Llama 4 ScoutMetaMemory
Apple Inc80% sure
Apple has consistently shown strong market performance.
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)GoogleMemory
Microsoft75% sure
Their dominant position in enterprise cloud infrastructure and aggressive integration of generative AI across their entire software ecosystem creates a massive, durable competitive advantage.
Solar Pro 3UpstageMemory
Apple90% sure
Apple's ecosystem and AI push likely keep it ahead of rivals through 2030.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion LabsMemory
Apple80% sure
Apple's market cap has been on the rise in recent years, driven by strong growth in its services business and the potential of new product categories like wearables and automotive.
Solar Pro 4UpstageMemory
Apple42% sure
Asking me to name the biggest company in 2030 is a joke—nobody knows, but Apple's momentum keeps it a plausible pick.
Llama 4 MaverickMetaMemory
Microsoft60% sure
Cloud and AI dominance will likely propel Microsoft.
Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexityMemory
Apple Inc25% sure
Apple’s massive ecosystem, sticky profits and new AI hardware make it the most likely long‑term market cap leader.
Sonar ProPerplexityMemory
Apple55% sure
Unmatched ecosystem, services growth, and brand power make Apple the safest bet to keep compounding value at massive scale.
Nova 2 LiteAmazonSearched
Apple Inc75% sure
Consistent innovation and global brand strength position Apple for top market cap by 2030.
SonarPerplexityMemory
Microsoft22% sure
Its cloud, AI, and enterprise dominance make it a durable candidate to stay near the top by 2030.
Parallel BaseParallelMemory
Microsoft85% sure
Microsoft's cloud dominance, enterprise lock-in, and OpenAI leadership position it to lead in market cap by 2030.
gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAISearched
Apple70% sure
Apple’s dominant hardware, services, and ecosystem keep it poised to top global market caps by 2030.
Mistral Medium 3.5MistralMemory
Microsoft75% sure
AI leadership, cloud dominance, and diversified enterprise growth outpace rivals by 2030.
Mistral Medium 3.1MistralMemory
Microsoft75% sure
AI leadership, cloud dominance, and diversified enterprise growth outpace rivals by 2030.
Sabiá 4Maritaca AIMemory
Apple Inc65% sure
Apple's unmatched ecosystem, cash flow, and brand loyalty give it the strongest odds to stay on top by 2030.
MiMo V2.5XiaomiMemory
Apple's ecosystem stickiness and services revenue create durable moats no compe…
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)GoogleMemory
Microsoft75% sure
Deep AI integration across an inescapable enterprise cloud ecosystem will drive compounding growth that overtakes pure hardware and consumer tech plays.
Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AIMemory
Microsoft Corporation80% sure
Tech leadership and AI-first strategy favor Microsoft to top the market by 2030.
Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAIMemory
Apple Inc65% sure
Apple's ecosystem lock-in and services growth give it the best shot at staying #1 through 2030.
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIAMemory
Apple95% sure
Its ecosystem and services growth dominate analysts' long‑term forecasts.
GLM-4.7Z.AIMemory
Apple60% sure
Dominant consumer ecosystem with massive recurring services revenue and sustained iPhone demand.
Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion LabsSearched
Microsoft60% sure
Azure and AI dominance will push it past Apple and a slowing NVIDIA by 2030.
Qwen3.7 FlashQwenMemory
Microsoft85% sure
Strongest AI monetization via Azure and Office ecosystem provides the most reliable path to sustained dominance.
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)GoogleMemory
Microsoft45% sure
Their entrenched enterprise footprint and deep generative AI integration give them the steadiest runway to dominate future tech infrastructure.
gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAIMemory
Apple78% sure
Apple’s brand, cash flow and AI‑driven ecosystem keep it ahead of rivals.
Every answer
84 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA
Apple75%
Apple's market cap hit $4.85T by Sept 2026, and its 14% CAGR to 2030 would reach $8.2T, outpacing rivals like Microsoft and NVIDIA.
Searched
Qwen3.8 FlashQwen
NVIDIA38%
It's #1 today at $5.1T and still the toll booth on AI compute, but Apple is only $0.3T behind with steadier cash flow — this one is a coin flip decided by whether the capex cycle holds to 2030.
Searched
Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI
NVIDIA42%
AI chip dominance and data-center lock-in should keep compounding faster than anyone else through the decade.
Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA
Apple Inc72%
Apple's massive cash reserves, services growth, and entrenched ecosystem create a durable moat unmatched by peers.
GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI
Microsoft24%
Its cloud, AI, and enterprise ecosystem give it the strongest durable path to surpass today’s leaders by 2030.
Nova LiteAmazon
Apple Inc70%
Apple has consistently shown strong financial performance and innovation.
Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
Microsoft42%
Its enterprise cloud dominance and software monetization compound resiliently across the entire AI stack without single-hardware-cycle risk.
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance
Apple68%
It has a massive, resilient ecosystem, consistent revenue growth, and has held the top market cap spot for years, with projected AI integration driving continued valuation gains through 2030.
Searched
Laguna XS 2.1Poolside
NVIDIA65%
NVIDIA's AI dominance and 50%+ annual growth make it likely to overtake Apple/Microsoft by 2030.
Searched
Grok 4.3xAI
Nvidia55%
AI chip dominance plus fastest current trajectory points to 2030 crown.
Searched
InklingThinking Machines
NVIDIACONFIDENCE:60WHY: Still riding AI hardware dominance, but four years is a…
Searched
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek
Nvidia62%
AI compute demand is compounding faster than any other business at scale, and Nvidia sits on the choke point of it with margins nothing else matches.
Mercury 2.5Inception
Apple78%
Its massive ecosystem, services growth, and cash reserves give it the most durable moat heading into the 2030s.
Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
NVIDIA35%
AI infrastructure buildout still has years to run and NVIDIA's CUDA moat makes it the picks-and-shovels play most leveraged to that megacycle.
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek
NVIDIA62%
AI compute demand keeps compounding, and Nvidia already leads the world in market cap with the widest moat in the fastest-growing industry on earth.
Granite 4.2 8BIBM
Nvidia55%
Based on current AI chip demand trends and recent milestone projections showing Nvidia near $5.7T peak by mid-2026, making it a strong candidate for top market cap in 2030.
Searched
Llama 4 ScoutMeta
Apple Inc80%
Apple has consistently shown strong market performance.
Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning)Aion Labs
NVIDIA45%
AI chip dominance and surging demand make NVIDIA the likeliest to hold the top spot by 2030.
Searched
Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
NVIDIA32%
AI infrastructure buildout is still in early innings and NVIDIA's CUDA moat keeps widening even as competitors chip away at the edges.
Searched
GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI
NVIDIA32%
AI compute demand and software ecosystem give Nvidia the clearest path to sustained trillion-dollar expansion.
LongCat 2.0Meituan
NVIDIA62%
AI chip demand keeps compounding and NVDA sits at the center of it with the widest moat and fastest growth of any mega-cap.
Searched
Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic
NVIDIA Corporation62%
NVIDIA leads today in AI chip demand; secular momentum likely sustains through 2030, though Apple's stability makes this close.
Searched
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
Microsoft75%
Their dominant position in enterprise cloud infrastructure and aggressive integration of generative AI across their entire software ecosystem creates a massive, durable competitive advantage.
Solar Pro 3Upstage
Apple90%
Apple's ecosystem and AI push likely keep it ahead of rivals through 2030.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs
Apple80%
Apple's market cap has been on the rise in recent years, driven by strong growth in its services business and the potential of new product categories like wearables and automotive.
Solar Pro 4Upstage
Apple42%
Asking me to name the biggest company in 2030 is a joke—nobody knows, but Apple's momentum keeps it a plausible pick.
Llama 4 MaverickMeta
Microsoft60%
Cloud and AI dominance will likely propel Microsoft.
Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity
Apple Inc25%
Apple’s massive ecosystem, sticky profits and new AI hardware make it the most likely long‑term market cap leader.
Sonar ProPerplexity
Apple55%
Unmatched ecosystem, services growth, and brand power make Apple the safest bet to keep compounding value at massive scale.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek
NVIDIA72%
AI capex keeps compounding while Nvidia sits at the toll booth of the whole datacenter buildout.
Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Nvidia40%
The AI compute buildout is the decade's defining capex wave and Nvidia still owns the toll booth; Microsoft and Apple are the live threats if margins compress.
Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Nvidia30%
Whoever sells the compute owns the decade — Nvidia's margins and CUDA lock-in still look hardest to dislodge by 2030.
GLM-5.2Z.AI
Nvidia72%
AI compute capex super-cycle plus near-monopoly on training-grade accelerators makes Nvidia the likeliest #1 by 2030.
Searched
Laguna S 2.1Poolside
NVIDIA78%
NVIDIA's dominant AI chip position and explosive growth trajectory make it the most likely to stay atop market cap through 2030.
Searched
Nova 2 LiteAmazon
Apple Inc75%
Consistent innovation and global brand strength position Apple for top market cap by 2030.
Searched
SonarPerplexity
Microsoft22%
Its cloud, AI, and enterprise dominance make it a durable candidate to stay near the top by 2030.
GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI
NVIDIA Corporation50%
Soars on AI boom; huge growth tailwind, leading chip maker, momentum favors it leading global market cap.
Searched
Parallel BaseParallel
Microsoft85%
Microsoft's cloud dominance, enterprise lock-in, and OpenAI leadership position it to lead in market cap by 2030.
Kimi K3Moonshot
NVIDIA45%
AI infrastructure demand is compounding faster than any rival's growth, and NVIDIA's full-stack moat should keep it atop the market through the decade.
Kimi K2.6Moonshot
NVIDIA62%
NVIDIA already leads at $5.1T with AI datacenter demand accelerating; if AI inference keeps scaling through 2029, hardware+software moat keeps it ahead.
Searched
gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
Apple70%
Apple’s dominant hardware, services, and ecosystem keep it poised to top global market caps by 2030.
Searched
GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI
NVIDIA55%
AI compute is the decade's defining gold rush, and NVIDIA owns the picks and shovels — already #1 today with margins rivals can't match.
Searched
Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral
Microsoft75%
AI leadership, cloud dominance, and diversified enterprise growth outpace rivals by 2030.
Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral
Microsoft75%
AI leadership, cloud dominance, and diversified enterprise growth outpace rivals by 2030.
Grok 4.20xAI
NVIDIA55%
AI compute demand explodes through 2029, NVIDIA's CUDA moat and data center dominance keep it atop the cap table even as others catch up.
Searched
Sabiá 4Maritaca AI
Apple Inc65%
Apple's unmatched ecosystem, cash flow, and brand loyalty give it the strongest odds to stay on top by 2030.
Gemma 4 31BGoogle
NVIDIA60%
Their dominance in AI compute infrastructure is the primary engine for the next decade of global productivity gains.
Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
NVIDIA Corporation65%
Nvidia's foundational grip on AI compute infrastructure gives it the strongest growth runway to lead global market cap by 2030.
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI
NVIDIA36%
AI compute demand, CUDA’s moat, and relentless chip innovation give NVIDIA the strongest path to global market-cap leadership.
Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning)Meta
Nvidia38%
Owns the AI compute stack and that spend only accelerates into 2030.
GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI
NVIDIA35%
AI compute demand compounds through 2030 and NVIDIA sells the shovels — still the safest bet, but a decade bet is never safe.
Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Nvidia55%
AI compute demand keeps compounding faster than rivals can catch up.
MiMo V2.5Xiaomi
Apple's ecosystem stickiness and services revenue create durable moats no compe…
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi
NVIDIA55%
NVIDIA's AI dominance and growth trajectory make it the strongest contender to hold or reclaim the top spot by 2030.
Searched
Mistral Small 3Mistral
NVIDIA78%
AI and GPU dominance will keep NVIDIA on top through 2030.
Searched
Inkling SmallThinking Machines
NVIDIA72%
AI/compute dominance and $5.7T peak make Nvidia the likeliest #1 by 2030, but regulation or rotation could crown Apple or a dark horse.
Searched
Parallel LiteParallel
Nvidia85%
Nvidia dominates global AI infrastructure and data center chips, making it the top consensus pick to lead market capitalization by 2030.
Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta
NVIDIA Corporation38%
AI infrastructure demand keeps compounding faster than peers, giving Nvidia the best shot at staying on top by 2030.
Searched
MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax
Nvidia80%
Nvidia dominates AI chip demand and is already the world's largest company by market cap in 2026, positioned to maintain lead through 2030.
Searched
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google
Microsoft75%
Deep AI integration across an inescapable enterprise cloud ecosystem will drive compounding growth that overtakes pure hardware and consumer tech plays.
Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI
Microsoft Corporation80%
Tech leadership and AI-first strategy favor Microsoft to top the market by 2030.
Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI
Apple Inc65%
Apple's ecosystem lock-in and services growth give it the best shot at staying #1 through 2030.
Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning)xAI
NVIDIA42%
Already #1 on the AI-capex wave; three years isn't long enough for CUDA's moat or hyperscaler spend to break.
Searched
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA
Apple95%
Its ecosystem and services growth dominate analysts' long‑term forecasts.
Hy4 PreviewTencent
NVIDIA52%
AI infrastructure demand is compounding faster than any other sector, and Nvidia's software moat plus data-center dominance is the most likely path to a $10T+ cap by 2030.
GLM-4.7Z.AI
Apple60%
Dominant consumer ecosystem with massive recurring services revenue and sustained iPhone demand.
GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Nvidia38%
Nvidia’s chips and software make it my strongest bet to capture the profits from expanding AI investment through 2030.
Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Microsoft60%
Azure and AI dominance will push it past Apple and a slowing NVIDIA by 2030.
Searched
Qwen3.7 FlashQwen
Microsoft85%
Strongest AI monetization via Azure and Office ecosystem provides the most reliable path to sustained dominance.
Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA
NVIDIA55%
NVIDIA's current #1 position ($5.1T), AI infrastructure dominance, and data-center moat give it the best odds, but 42 months is a long horizon for tech leadership to hold.
Searched
Granite 4.0 MicroIBM
NVIDIA60%
Leading AI chipmaker with strong growth prospects and market dominance in AI hardware.
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
Microsoft45%
Their entrenched enterprise footprint and deep generative AI integration give them the steadiest runway to dominate future tech infrastructure.
Parallel SpeedParallel
NVIDIA90%
NVIDIA dominates global AI infrastructure, positioning it to retain the top market cap spot through 2030.
Qwen3.8 27BQwen
NVIDIA55%
The AI capex buildout keeps its revenue machine on steroids through 2030, and it already leads the pack — compounding that lead is the base case.
Searched
Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
NVIDIA24%
It's already #1 by $330B and remains the tollbooth on AI compute; capex keeps climbing into 2030, and CUDA plus inference and robotics give it the runway to hold the crown.
Searched
gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
Apple78%
Apple’s brand, cash flow and AI‑driven ecosystem keep it ahead of rivals.
Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance
NVIDIA55%
AI compute demand is still in early innings, and NVIDIA's GPU monopoly plus software moat should compound to over $10T by 2030.
Searched
MiniMax M3MiniMax
Nvidia32%
AI infrastructure dominance + insane growth runway could vault it past Microsoft/Apple by 2030, but it's a coin-flip against the incumbents.
Searched
PUUnion AlphaUndisclosed maker
NVIDIA35%
It's already the world's most valuable company and the toll booth for AI compute; unless the AI capex wave breaks before 2030, it likely still leads.
Searched
Grok 4.7 (High Reasoning)xAI
NVIDIA56%
Already #1 at $5.5T, and the CUDA lock on AI compute is the growth engine most likely to still sit on top in early 2030.
Searched
GPT-6 Sol (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
NVIDIA35%
AI computing demand should keep NVIDIA’s chips and software valuable, though three years is plenty of time for a rival to catch up.
Searched
Claude Opus 5.5 (High Reasoning)Anthropic
NVIDIA35%
It's already #1 at about $5.5T, roughly $570B ahead of Apple. Unless AI chip spending falls off a cliff, NVIDIA's profits keep compounding faster than anyone chasing it.
Searched
GPT-6 Luna (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Nvidia38%
If AI keeps expanding, Nvidia’s control of the computing backbone gives it the strongest shot at becoming the world’s most valuable company.
MiMo V2.6 FlashXiaomi
Nvidia45%
AI capex keeps compounding, and chips sit upstream of every model company's biggest cost.
Didn't answer in time or errored: MiMo V2.6 Pro.
AI consensus
62%
NVIDIA
52 of 84 models
Models : 84
Labs : 28
Searched : 35
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