Who wins the 2026 NRL premiership? 75 AI models predict the result

We asked 75 AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek…) the same question. 95% picked Penrith Panthers. See every answer and who dissented.

← We asked every AI

Who wins the 2026 NRL premiership?

Asked verbatim: “NRL 2026: the Dolphins and Penrith Panthers are through to the preliminary finals; the Sydney Roosters, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights play semi-finals this weekend. Which team wins the 2026 NRL premiership?”

How the AIs voted

One dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.

Every answer

• Mistral Small 3 (Mistral): Dolphins — Dolphins beat Penrith 26-22 in the preliminary final to claim the premiership.
• Solar Pro 3 (Upstage): Dolphins — The Dolphins' consistent scoring, strong defensive core, and recent form suggest they’ll dominate the finals.
• Nova Lite (Amazon): Penrith Panthers — Based on their strong performance in the regular season and historical success.
• Nemotron 3 Ultra (NVIDIA): Penrith Panthers — Penrith's dynasty core (Cleary, Yeo, Luai, To'o) and Ivan Cleary's finals mastery make them the benchmark until someone knocks them off in September.
• Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning) (Meta): Penrith Panthers — Panthers are top of the ladder and have a proven finals pedigree with Dolphins and Penrith already in prelims.
• Mercury 2.5 (Inception): Penrith Panthers — Their depth and finals pedigree give them the edge over the Dolphins in a tight grand final matchup.
• Nova 2 Lite (Amazon): Penrith Panthers — Penrith have home-ground advantage and recent form to reach the grand final again.
• Hy4 Preview (Tencent): Penrith Panthers — Penrith are the proven big-stage side, already resting in the prelim, and their big-game spine gives them the shortest, safest path to another flag.
• Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning) (Google): Penrith Panthers — With a week off and unmatched big-match finals pedigree, Penrith remains the most ruthless and complete machine in October football.
• Grok 4.20 (xAI): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers with dynasty pedigree; Dolphins are the trendy pick but Penrith's experience in September footy wins out.
• GLM-4.7 (Z.AI): Penrith Panthers — Dynasty pedigree, finals-tested spine, and the Panthers' big-game edge wins out.
• Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning) (Anthropic): Penrith Panthers — Big-game pedigree and finals experience trump everyone else left in the draw.
• Grok 4.3 (xAI): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers with best squad depth and finals experience edge out the field.
• MiMo V2.5 Pro (Xiaomi): Penrith Panthers — Four-peat dynasty already safely in the prelims with Cleary steering the ship — history says bet on the team that knows how to win October.
• GPT-5.6 Terra (OpenAI): Penrith Panthers — Finals pedigree, elite defensive systems and the direct path to the grand final still make Penrith the safest bet.
• MiMo V2.5 (Xiaomi): Penrith Panthers — Panthers are minor premiers and have proven finals pedigree.
• MiniMax M3 (MiniMax): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers with proven finals pedigree, Cleary cleared to play despite drama, and "Panthers pedigree prevails" rings true for a team chasing dynasty history.
• GLM-5.2 (Z.AI): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers with deep finals pedigree and a week off, Penrith are the class act of a field where the Dolphins' fairytale finally hits a ceiling.
• Qwen3.8 27B (Qwen): Penrith Panthers — Penrith's deep, proven squad and home-ground advantage in the prelim make them the favourites to run it out.
• GLM-4.7 Flash (Z.AI): Penrith Panthers — Panthers have superior head-to-head record against Dolphins and best recent form in finals.
• LongCat 2.0 (Meituan): Penrith Panthers — Penrith's sustained excellence under Ivan Cleary, with multiple recent premierships and a proven finals pedigree, makes them the most reliable choice to win it all.
• Inkling (Thinking Machines): Penrith Panthers — Penrith is rested, battle-hardened and has the deepest finals pedigree of any remaining side; they take the 2026 title.
• Nemotron 3 Super (NVIDIA): Penrith Panthers — Panthers showed strong form defeating Roosters 19-12 and have proven finals experience as recent perennial contenders with multiple premierships in recent years.
• Sabiá 4 (Maritaca AI): Penrith Panthers — Defending champions with elite defense, experience, and Ivanovic/NRL-best halves; toughest path but most likely to finish.
• Sonar Pro (Perplexity): Penrith Panthers — Proven big-game performers with recent premiership pedigree and elite systems, they’re the safest bet to handle finals pressure again.
• Ling 3.0 Flash (InclusionAI): Penrith Panthers — Penrith are the most experienced premiership side in this group and their pedigree in big finals games gives them the edge over the Dolphins and the Sydney clubs.
• gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning) (OpenAI): Penrith Panthers — Panthers have a deep roster, strong finals experience, and momentum heading into the prelims.
• Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning) (Google): Penrith Panthers — Penrith's unmatched big-game experience and elite defensive system make them the undeniable favorites to lift the trophy again.
• Mistral Medium 3.5 (Mistral): Penrith Panthers — Reigning back-to-back champs with finals poise and depth to peak again.
• Seed 2.0 Mini (ByteDance): Penrith Panthers — Penrith has been a dominant NRL force in recent years, making them a plausible pick for the 2026 premiership.
• DeepSeek V4 Flash (DeepSeek): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers with the best defence in the comp and a week off; they've done this four straight times and know exactly how to close out a prelim.
• Aion 3.0 (Reasoning) (Aion Labs): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers with four straight titles 2021-24, proven big-game system under Cleary, and already through to prelims — dynasty pedigree wins out.
• Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning) (Aion Labs): Penrith Panthers — They've been the NRL's most dominant team across multiple seasons and are already in the prelims — the threepeat dynasty keeps rolling.
• MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning) (MiniMax): Penrith Panthers — Penrith's recent dominance (three consecutive premierships 2021-2023) and already being in the preliminary finals makes them the clear favorite.
• Sabiazinho 4 (Maritaca AI): Penrith Panthers — Strong home advantage, depth, and recent form favor Panthers over a stacked finals field.
• Granite 4.2 8B (IBM): Penrith Panthers — No actual 2026 NRL results available; prediction is speculative.
• Llama 4 Maverick (Meta): Penrith Panthers — Penrith Panthers are already in the preliminary finals and have shown strong recent performance.
• Nemotron 3.5 Lightning (NVIDIA): Penrith Panthers — Penrith's three-peat machine just added a preliminary final appearance, and their core depth across both ends of the field consistently outperforms the other finalists in September.
• Seed 2.1 Turbo (ByteDance): Penrith Panthers — They've already beaten the Roosters in week one with a 19-12 qualifying final win, their big-game pedigree and defensive spine is unmatched left in the draw.
• Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning) (Google): Penrith Panthers — With a deep roster and unmatched finals experience, the Panthers remain the gold standard for high-stakes matches and are the clear favorites to secure another title.
• gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning) (OpenAI): Penrith Panthers — Penrith’s dominant 2025 run and depth give them the edge to clinch the 2026 title.
• Parallel Lite (Parallel): Penrith Panthers — As minor premiers with four title wins in six years, Penrith's unmatched big-game experience and elite defense make them the team to beat.
• Sonar Reasoning Pro (Perplexity): Penrith Panthers — Stacked roster, big-game experience and systems built for finals footy make Penrith the safest bet to go all the way again.
• Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning) (Anthropic): Penrith Panthers — Penrith have the September pedigree, a week off and the only roster that treats finals as routine — back the dynasty until someone actually ends it.
• DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 (DeepSeek): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers with a +336 differential and the only side that already earned a prelim berth; their finals experience is the safest bet.
• Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning) (xAI): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers who just knocked off the Roosters and own the modern finals blueprint—hard to bet against that machine once they're in the last four.
• Kimi K3 (Moonshot): Penrith Panthers — Penrith's dynasty DNA and a clinical 19-12 qualifying win over the Roosters make them the safest bet in a wide-open finals field.
• Sonar (Perplexity): Penrith Panthers — Finals pedigree still matters most, and Penrith are the safest bet to navigate the last two steps.
• Laguna XS 2.1 (Poolside): Penrith Panthers — Penrith's proven premiership pedigree and experience under Melbourne-era coach Ivan Cleary gives them the edge over the young Dolphins in pressure situations.
• Qwen3.7 Flash (Qwen): Penrith Panthers — They are the most proven dynasty in NRL history and consistently outperform expectations in high-pressure preliminary final and grand final environments.
• Mistral Medium 3.1 (Mistral): Penrith Panthers — Reigning back-to-back champs with finals poise and depth to peak again.
• GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI): Penrith Panthers — Penrith’s proven finals nerve and the priceless week off make them the safest bet in a wide-open race.
• Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning) (Google): Penrith Panthers — Unstoppable finals pedigree and the minor premiership prove Penrith remains the benchmark for another title.
• Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning) (Anthropic): Penrith Panthers — A week off, Cleary and Ivan Cleary's finals machine — Penrith with a bye into the prelims is still the team nobody wants to meet in September.
• Laguna S 2.1 (Poolside): Penrith Panthers — Penrith's proven clutch pedigree and dynasty experience outweighs Dolphins' fairytale run.
• Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning) (Qwen): Penrith Panthers — Four straight titles built a finals DNA that doesn't evaporate — they already handled the Roosters and know how to close out September better than anyone left.
• DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (DeepSeek): Penrith Panthers — Four straight titles from 2021-24, and a team that knows how to win sudden-death footy beats a Dolphins side in unfamiliar air.
• Kimi K2.6 (Moonshot): Penrith Panthers — Four-peat hunting champs just beat minor premiers, get two weeks rest and a home prelim — the Dolphins' fairytale ends here.
• Solar Pro 4 (Upstage): Penrith Panthers — They’ve churned out four straight flags and, when fit, that system keeps delivering no matter who’s in the way.
• GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning) (Z.AI): Penrith Panthers — Even with a semi-final road through the preliminary final, Penrith's dynasty core and big-game coaching depth make them the team nobody wants to face in October.
• Parallel Base (Parallel): Penrith Panthers — As minor premiers and four-time grand finalists in recent years, Penrith possess the championship experience and roster depth to go all the way in 2026.
• GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning) (Z.AI): Penrith Panthers — Without live 2026 data I'll back the dynasty: no club handles preliminary-final pressure and week-three footy like Penrith, though the Dolphins are the live upset.
• Claude Haiku 4.5 (Anthropic): Penrith Panthers — Finished first on ladder with Dolphins' convincing win over Warriors suggesting genuine form—genuine toss-up, but Penrith's top-four finish edges it.
• Inkling Small (Thinking Machines): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers with the best defense and a dynasty core; they survive one more week and take the shield in a close finale.
• Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning) (Qwen): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers, a week off and a seventh straight prelim — even a dodgy Cleary foot can't undo the most complete side left standing.
• Gemma 4 31B (Google): Penrith Panthers — Their systemic dominance and championship pedigree make them the safest bet to navigate the finals and win it all.
• Nemotron 3 Nano 30B (NVIDIA): Penrith Panthers — They dominate the middle with a top‑ranked defence and a clutch kicking game.
• GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning) (OpenAI): Penrith Panthers — A week off, a preliminary-final berth and proven big-game pedigree make Penrith my pick to finish the job.
• Qwen3.8 Flash (Qwen): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers with a +336 differential, they beat the Roosters in their qualifying final and have already punched their preliminary ticket — no need to survive another knockout week.
• Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning) (xAI): Penrith Panthers — Minor premiers already in the prelims with a week off — that path plus their September pedigree still makes them the team to beat.
• Parallel Speed (Parallel): Penrith Panthers — Chasing their fifth title in six years with elite defense and unmatched big-game finals experience.
• Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning) (Google): Penrith Panthers — Already resting up for the preliminary finals, their unmatched finals pedigree and relentless defense make them incredibly tough to beat when it matters most.
• GPT-5.6 Luna (OpenAI): Penrith Panthers — Penrith’s finals pedigree and big-game composure make them my narrow pick, though the Dolphins’ unbeaten path gives this prediction real danger.
• Granite 4.0 Micro (IBM): Sydney Roosters — Strong recent form, home advantage, and ability to dominate in finals pressure make them the most likely 2026 champions.
• Aion-RP 1.0 (8B) (Aion Labs): New Zealand Warriors — The Warriors have a strong squad with a good balance of experience and youth. Their key players like Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Blake Green, and Issac Luke are performing well and will be crucial in determining the outcome of the game.