Why is Speculative Decoding Fast?

It's not because you do less work. It's because you change the kind of work the GPU is doing.

By Joe Barrow | October 8, 2026

There is a common misconception that speculative decoding is fast because you do less work per token. That just “verifying” a draft requires fewer FLOPs than generating the same tokens.

This is untrue.

One of the counterintuitive things about speculative decoding is that you actually do more work! The total number of floating point operations (FLOPs) you execute goes UP for the same sequence.

But then why is it fast? What exactly does an accurate draft model buy you, if it’s not compute efficiency?