← We asked every AILive · 84/85 models
Hot takeScience
Will humans land on Mars before 2035?
Asked verbatim: “Will a human land on Mars before January 1, 2035? Yes or no.”
How the AIs voted
One dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.
13%Yes
11 models
86%No
PU
72 models
1%Other
1 model
By lab
- OpenAI7 / 8 No
- Google6 / 6 No
- Anthropic5 / 5 No
- Qwen5 / 5 No
- xAI3 / 5 No
- Z.AI5 / 5 No
- 22 other labs41 / 50 No
84 of 85 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
How the consensus formed
Running share as each of the 85 models answered.
The read
Consensus is overwhelmingly No (~68 of 78), citing unproven Starship refueling, life support, and slipping NASA/SpaceX timelines. Grok 4.3, Grok 4.20, and Nova Lite dissent with Yes, betting private/agency momentum beats the 2035 deadline.
Written by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.
The contrarians
12 models went against the room.
Grok 4.3xAISearched
Yes65% sure
Starship and Artemis timelines plus private funding make a 2030s crewed landing the baseline case.
Laguna XS 2.1PoolsideSearched
Yes75% sure
SpaceX's Starship and NASA's Artemis/DRA plans target human Mars landings in the late 2020s to early 2030s, well before Jan 2035.
Nova LiteAmazonSearched
Yes85% sure
NASA and SpaceX are actively planning missions that could achieve a human landing on Mars before 2035.
Llama 4 ScoutMetaMemory
Yes80% sure
NASA's Artemis program aims to land humans on Mars in the 2030s.
Nova 2 LiteAmazonSearched
Okay, let's tackle this question: Will a human land on Mars before January 1, 2…70% sure
Major agencies target late 2030s+; technical hurdles remain immense before 2035.
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDanceMemory
Yes72% sure
NASA and SpaceX target mid-late 2030s crewed Mars landings, with public milestones on track to hit that target before 2035.
Llama 4 MaverickMetaMemory
Yes80% sure
NASA's Artemis program and SpaceX's Starship are actively working towards Mars missions in the mid-2030s.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion LabsMemory
Yes90% sure
While there are still potential challenges and uncertainties, such as funding, technological advancements, and international cooperation, the sustained efforts of space agencies worldwide, including NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, and others, indicate a growing capability to land humans o…
Grok 4.20xAISearched
Yes65% sure
NASA, SpaceX, and China are all heavily invested with hardware in development; technical and political momentum make a crewed landing in the early 2030s more likely than not.
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIAMemory
Yes100% sure
Ambitious public goals and several space agencies have announced crewed Mars missions well before 2035.
Granite 4.0 MicroIBMMemory
Yes85% sure
Advances in reusable rockets, sustainable propulsion, and Mars habitat tech suggest a realistic possibility of a crewed mission within the window.
GPT-6 Luna (Medium Reasoning)OpenAIMemory
Yes55% sure
A crewed Mars landing by 2035 is ambitious, but rapid launch-system progress makes it more likely than not.
Every answer
84 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek
No80%
SpaceX wants 2028-2031 but Starship refueling, life support, and surface ops all need to be proven first, and every prior Mars date has slipped by years.
Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
No75%
NASA targets the late 2030s at best, and the immense life-support, refueling, and surface-habitat hurdles make a crewed 2035 landing unrealistic.
Parallel LiteParallel
No95%
Leading space agencies and commercial forecast markets estimate a human landing on Mars will not occur until at least the late 2030s.
Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity
No75%
Timelines keep slipping and no space agency or company has a credible, fully funded plan to land humans on Mars before 2035.
Solar Pro 3Upstage
No90%
Current plans and budget constraints make a crewed Mars landing unlikely before 2035.
Searched
Sonar ProPerplexity
No75%
Tech, funding, and political hurdles make crewed Mars missions by 2034 unlikely despite ambitious roadmaps.
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
No90%
Current technical, logistical, and funding trajectories for NASA and private spaceflight make a crewed landing within the next nine years highly improbable.
MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax
No85%
NASA and private space companies are still in early development stages, with even optimistic timelines targeting the late 2030s or 2040s for Mars.
Searched
Grok 4.3xAI
Yes65%
Starship and Artemis timelines plus private funding make a 2030s crewed landing the baseline case.
Searched
Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic
No78%
NASA's official timeline targets late 2030s; 8.3 years remains insufficient for proven deep-space life support, crew training, and orbital infrastructure currently in development.
Searched
SonarPerplexity
No78%
The timeline is very tight for crewed Mars landing, with major life-support, launch, and return risks still unresolved by 2035.
Qwen3.8 27BQwen
No90%
SpaceX just deprioritized Mars for a lunar base in 2026, and even an unimpeded Starship program faces years of orbital transfer, propellant production and landing development before a crewed window opens before 2035.
Searched
Laguna XS 2.1Poolside
Yes75%
SpaceX's Starship and NASA's Artemis/DRA plans target human Mars landings in the late 2020s to early 2030s, well before Jan 2035.
Searched
GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI
No78%
The technical, funding, safety, and political hurdles make a crewed Mars landing by 2035 far less likely than current ambitions imply.
Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
No90%
No crewed Mars mission has a funded, approved timeline before the 2040s, and eight years is far too short to develop, test, and fly the necessary systems.
Searched
Nova LiteAmazon
Yes85%
NASA and SpaceX are actively planning missions that could achieve a human landing on Mars before 2035.
Searched
Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance
No70%
8 years is too little time for the life support, radiation shielding, launch infrastructure, and funding that a human Mars landing still needs.
Hy4 PreviewTencent
No82%
Starship's first uncrewed Mars window is likely late 2020s at best; crew needs cargo depots, landing tests, and return fuel — a 2034 landing leaves zero margin for slip.
Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning)xAI
No82%
NASA is still clawing back to the Moon, SpaceX just deprioritized Mars for a lunar base, and 8 years isn't enough for EDL, refueling, and deep-space life support we don't have.
Searched
Gemma 4 31BGoogle
No80%
SpaceX's Starship progress is promising, but the life-support and radiation hurdles for a crewed landing are too immense to reliably clear by 2034.
Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA
No75%
Current technology and funding gaps make a human Mars landing before 2035 highly unlikely.
Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral
No85%
Current timelines (NASA/Starship) and funding gaps make 2035 too tight for crewed Mars.
Sabiá 4Maritaca AI
No85%
Technical, health, and funding hurdles are too steep to land humans on Mars by 2035; robotic missions will keep leading.
Llama 4 ScoutMeta
Yes80%
NASA's Artemis program aims to land humans on Mars in the 2030s.
Kimi K3Moonshot
No88%
Starship hasn't reached orbit reliably, no funded lander exists, life support for 3-year missions is unproven, and 2035 is only 8 years away.
Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning)Meta
No87%
Rockets are promising, but Mars needs miracles on life support, funding, and politics that won't align in 8 years.
InklingThinking Machines
No
Searched
Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
No72%
Mars timelines consistently slip; even the most aggressive plans (China 2033, SpaceX) face unresolved technical hurdles in life support, EDL, and return architecture within an 8-year window.
Searched
Nova 2 LiteAmazon
Okay, let's tackle this question: Will a human land on Mars before January 1, 2…70%
Major agencies target late 2030s+; technical hurdles remain immense before 2035.
Searched
Mistral Small 3Mistral
No85%
No agency or company has finalized a human Mars landing plan with hardware ready before 2035.
Searched
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek
No88%
Crewed Mars landing needs a decade of unbuilt hardware, and NASA's own timeline targets the late 2030s — no funded program puts boots on Mars by 2034.
Parallel SpeedParallel
No85%
Severe engineering, life-support, and radiation hurdles make a crewed Mars landing before 2035 practically unachievable.
Qwen3.7 FlashQwen
No85%
Engineering hurdles, funding instability, and the sheer complexity of life support make a pre-2035 crewed landing virtually impossible.
Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
No88%
Starship still hasn't done orbital refueling or a crewed flight; a 2033 crewed window needs hardware, life support, and landing tech that don't exist yet — 2039+ is realistic.
Granite 4.2 8BIBM
No65%
NASA and SpaceX target mid-2030s for crewed Mars; no firm guarantee of landing before Jan 1, 2035, given typical schedule buffers and uncertainties.
Searched
Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
No88%
SpaceX just deprioritized Mars for a lunar base in 2026, no other program has a credible path, and the technical hurdles remain enormous.
Searched
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI
No78%
Rockets may be ready, but life support, orbital refueling, funding, and risk tolerance make a crewed Mars landing by 2034 too tight.
Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
No96%
No Mars-capable crew vehicle has even flown uncrewed, Starship is still proving orbital refueling, and launch windows plus 2-year transits leave no room by 2034.
GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI
No92%
No crewed Mars architecture is even flight-tested yet, and every existing program is years behind schedule — nine years is nowhere near enough.
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi
No90%
SpaceX deprioritized Mars for the Moon and Starship isn't human-rated yet; eight years is nowhere near enough time.
Searched
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance
Yes72%
NASA and SpaceX target mid-late 2030s crewed Mars landings, with public milestones on track to hit that target before 2035.
Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI
No85%
No crewed Mars mission has flown yet, and the technical, financial, and political hurdles remaining make a 2035 landing extremely unlikely.
Solar Pro 4Upstage
No65%
No funded, flight-ready Mars crew program exists at the scale and readiness needed to put boots on Mars by 2035.
Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA
No70%
Current tech and funding gaps make a crewed Mars landing by 2035 unlikely despite progress in rockets and robotics.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google
No90%
Despite ambitious claims from private space companies, the immense engineering and life-support hurdles of deep space travel will push a crewed landing past 2035.
Llama 4 MaverickMeta
Yes80%
NASA's Artemis program and SpaceX's Starship are actively working towards Mars missions in the mid-2030s.
GLM-5.2Z.AI
No87%
SpaceX deprioritized Mars for a lunar base in 2026, and NASA's own timeline puts a crewed Mars landing in the late 2030s at earliest—2028 to 2034 isn't enough runway.
Searched
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
No90%
Technical hurdles, orbital mechanics, and budget constraints make a crewed Mars landing by 2035 unrealistic.
Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta
No78%
Starship is still unproven for crew and Mars EDL; NASA and others target 2040s, not before 2035.
Searched
GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
No88%
Rockets alone won't close the gap: keeping crews alive, landing heavy equipment and getting people home make a Mars landing before 2035 a long shot.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs
Yes90%
While there are still potential challenges and uncertainties, such as funding, technological advancements, and international cooperation, the sustained efforts of space agencies worldwide, including NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, and others, indicate a growing capability to land humans o…
gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
No70%
No confirmed mission schedule or funding guarantees a human Mars landing before 2035.
GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI
No75%
SpaceX and NASA are years from a crewed Mars landing, far past your deadline.
Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
No85%
NASA and commercial timelines place a crewed Mars landing in the late 2030s or 2040s due to major life support, radiation, and budget hurdles.
LongCat 2.0Meituan
No75%
Current timelines from NASA and SpaceX target the late 2030s to 2040s, and the technical, logistical, and political hurdles make a landing before 2035 unlikely.
Mercury 2.5Inception
No75%
No major agency or private firm has a funded, flight-ready Mars landing scheduled for 2035, and technical hurdles remain immense.
Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning)Aion Labs
No92%
No government or private program has the funded, tested hardware needed to land humans on Mars within eight years.
Searched
Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI
No80%
Even with current plans, technical, funding, and safety hurdles make a human Mars landing unlikely before Jan 1, 2035.
GLM-4.7Z.AI
No95%
No human-rated Mars hardware exists, and a decade is nowhere near enough to build, test, and fly it.
Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI
No72%
NASA/SpaceX timelines keep slipping past mid-2030s; no funded, flight-ready crewed architecture exists yet that can hit a 2034 window.
Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral
No85%
Current NASA and SpaceX timelines target late 2030s, with funding, tech, and safety hurdles still unresolved.
MiniMax M3MiniMax
No78%
NASA Artemis timeline slipped; SpaceX Starship unproven for crewed Mars transit. Realistic earliest landing is 2040s, not before 2035.
Qwen3.8 FlashQwen
No78%
Artemis III is still a NET-2027 lunar demo with no HLS certified, Starship has yet to fly to Mars or prove orbital refueling, and NASA's Mars plans keep slipping — eight years isn't enough to build and fly a crewed EDL mission.
Searched
MiMo V2.5Xiaomi
No88%
NASA hasn't even landed humans back on the Moon yet (Artemis III keeps slipping), and Mars is orders of magnitude harder with no crewed mission even past the planning stage.
Searched
Grok 4.20xAI
Yes65%
NASA, SpaceX, and China are all heavily invested with hardware in development; technical and political momentum make a crewed landing in the early 2030s more likely than not.
Searched
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA
Yes100%
Ambitious public goals and several space agencies have announced crewed Mars missions well before 2035.
Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
No78%
No crewed Mars hardware even exists yet, and Starship still hasn't nailed orbital refueling—2035 is too tight a runway.
Inkling SmallThinking Machines
No92%
NASA targets 2039; SpaceX isn't ready for human Mars landings by 2034; delays are guaranteed.
Searched
gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
No70%
Current schedules and technical hurdles make a crewed Mars landing before 2035 unlikely.
GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI
No95%
No crewed Mars mission is even funded or crewed-rated yet; landers, life support and orbital logistics still need a decade-plus, so 2035 is far too soon.
GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI
No85%
The remaining technical, financial, and safety hurdles make a crewed Mars landing before 2035 unlikely, despite rapid progress toward lunar missions.
Granite 4.0 MicroIBM
Yes85%
Advances in reusable rockets, sustainable propulsion, and Mars habitat tech suggest a realistic possibility of a crewed mission within the window.
Laguna S 2.1Poolside
No82%
NASA has no funded Mars landing before 2035; SpaceX's Starship timelines historically slip by years and 2034 is just too soon.
Searched
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek
No82%
Crewed Mars landing needs orbital refueling, radiation shielding and a surface habitat that don't exist yet — no program is on a schedule to fly them all by 2035.
Parallel BaseParallel
No85%
High technical complexity, life-support requirements, and funding/schedule realities make a crewed Mars landing before 2035 extremely unlikely.
Kimi K2.6Moonshot
No75%
NASA's Artemis Moon landing is already delayed to 2026; Mars requires 2 years more development, testing, and a 7-month transit—tight for 2034 even if everything goes perfectly.
Searched
Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA
No85%
NASA's Moon-to-Mars plan targets late 2030s for crewed Mars landing; SpaceX Starship progress is real but orbital refueling, life support, and EDL remain unsolved with <9 years to 2035.
Searched
Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
No78%
Starship and the Orion/SpaceX stack haven't landed people yet, and life-support, radiation shielding, EDL and in-situ propellant all have to work flawlessly in one go — a 2033-34 landing date is optimism, not schedule.
PUUnion AlphaUndisclosed maker
No94%
As of 2026 no human has even left low-Earth orbit for the Moon since Apollo, and every Mars plan runs a decade late; eight years isn't close to enough.
Searched
Claude Opus 5.5 (High Reasoning)Anthropic
No80%
Starship still has to prove orbital refueling, long-duration life support and a Mars landing and return, and each of those tends to slip by years, so 2035 is too soon.
GPT-6 Luna (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes55%
A crewed Mars landing by 2035 is ambitious, but rapid launch-system progress makes it more likely than not.
MiMo V2.6 FlashXiaomi
No92%
Even SpaceX's optimistic plans put a crewed Mars landing in the 2030s, and NASA's is later still — no credible path lands humans by 2034.
GPT-6 Sol (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
No85%
Eight years is too little time to prove orbital refueling, a crewed Mars landing, and the systems needed to bring the crew home.
Grok 4.7 (High Reasoning)xAI
No78%
Artemis II only just flew past the Moon in 2026; no crew vehicle, lander, or funded launch window can put boots on Mars before 2035.
Searched
Didn't answer in time or errored: MiMo V2.6 Pro.
AI consensus
86%
No
72 of 84 models
Models : 84
Labs : 28
Searched : 28
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