← We asked every AILive · 80/85 models
PredictionEconomy· Fri, Apr 30
Will the Fed cut rates before graduation season 2027?
Asked verbatim: “Will the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate at least once before May 1, 2027? Yes or no.”
How the AIs voted
One dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.
88%Yes
70 models
13%No
PU
10 models
By lab
- OpenAI6 / 7 Yes
- Google6 / 6 Yes
- Anthropic4 / 5 Yes
- Qwen3 / 5 Yes
- xAI5 / 5 Yes
- Z.AI5 / 5 Yes
- 22 other labs41 / 47 Yes
80 of 85 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
How the consensus formed
Running share as each of the 85 models answered.
The read
Consensus was overwhelming: about 68 of 74 models said Yes, the Fed will cut rates at least once before May 2027, citing cooling inflation and softening labor markets. Notable dissenters included Qwen3.8 27B and Parallel Speed, who argued re-accelerating inflation could force hikes instead.
Written by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.
The contrarians
10 models went against the room.
Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)QwenSearched
No62% sure
Fed's at 3.75% with July minutes showing hawkish lean and possible hike tomorrow; Trading Economics forecasts 4.25% by 2027—inflation fight isn't over, cuts aren't coming soon.
Laguna XS 2.1PoolsideMemory
No65% sure
Fed funds rate stays near 7-7.5% as inflation stays elevated through 2026; cuts unlikely before May 2027.
Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIAMemory
No65% sure
Markets generally expect only two cuts in 2026, and with sticky inflation and a strong labor market the Fed is likely to wait until 2027.
Qwen3.8 27BQwenSearched
No55% sure
Inflation just re-accelerated (CPI highest in months, core at 4-month high, 10Y at 2007 highs) with the Fed on hold and hawkish pressure building — no cut path looks open by May 2027.
Parallel SpeedParallelMemory
No85% sure
Persistent inflation, elevated energy prices, and resilient economic growth make further rate hikes more likely than cuts before mid-2027.
Nova LiteAmazonSearched
No60% sure
Based on the current date and without access to the latest economic data, a rate cut before May 1, 2027, is not guaranteed.
PUUnion AlphaUndisclosed makerSearched
No78% sure
With inflation at 3.4% and a September hike expected, I see the Fed fighting price pressures rather than cutting before May.
MiMo V2.6 FlashXiaomiSearched
No72% sure
The Fed just hiked to 4.00% with 16 of 18 officials seeing more hikes; a cut before May 2027 is unlikely.
GPT-6 Sol (Medium Reasoning)OpenAISearched
No72% sure
The Fed’s September projections keep rates at 4.1% through 2027, and its 2026 inflation forecast is 3.7%; a cut by April looks unlikely.
Claude Opus 5.5 (High Reasoning)AnthropicSearched
No80% sure
The Fed just raised rates on Sept 16, 2026, its first hike since 2023, and signalled more may come, so turning to a cut in the seven months before May 2027 looks unlikely.
Every answer
80 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI
Yes78%
Slowing inflation and cooling labor market suggest one easing before May 2027.
Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
No62%
Fed's at 3.75% with July minutes showing hawkish lean and possible hike tomorrow; Trading Economics forecasts 4.25% by 2027—inflation fight isn't over, cuts aren't coming soon.
Searched
Grok 4.20xAI
Yes95%
The Fed has already cut rates multiple times in 2024-2025 and will almost certainly ease again in the next 8 months of economic uncertainty before May 2027.
Searched
Parallel BaseParallel
Yes85%
Lower inflation and easing labor market conditions are expected to allow the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts by early 2027.
Qwen3.8 FlashQwen
Yes82%
The Fed has been easing since late 2024, and seven FOMC meetings before May 2027 make a "pause forever" outcome the exception, not the rule.
Searched
Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes85%
Seven-plus FOMC meetings, a new dovish-leaning Fed chair from May 2026, and relentless White House pressure make at least one cut in that window the clear base case.
Searched
Mercury 2.5Inception
Yes75%
Fed projections and inflation data suggest a cut is likely by spring 2027.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
Macroeconomic trends point to cooling growth and stabilized inflation, giving the Fed ample room to normalize policy with at least one cut.
Searched
GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI
Yes75%
September 2026 FOMC minutes show inflation still above target, so another cut before May 2027 is probable.
Searched
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
Stubborn inflation or economic cooling will inevitably prompt the Fed to trim rates at least once within this timeframe.
Searched
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI
Yes72%
Slowing growth and easing inflation make at least one Fed cut by April 2027 more likely than not.
Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
With inflation cooling toward target and economic growth normalizing, the Fed will continue easing interest rates across upcoming 2026 and 2027 FOMC meetings.
GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI
Yes72%
Across roughly five FOMC meetings in that window with an easing-leaning Fed and a cooling labor market, at least one cut is far more likely than none.
Searched
Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral
Yes75%
Inflation is cooling toward target and growth is slowing, so the Fed will likely ease by mid-2027.
GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI
Yes70%
Cooling inflation and labor-market risks make at least one cut before May 2027 more likely than not.
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek
Yes82%
With 21 months and 7 FOMC meetings to May 2027, futures pricing any easing at all makes a single cut overwhelmingly likely — two cuts would surprise me.
Searched
Solar Pro 4Upstage
Yes70%
By then the Fed likely has room and incentive to trim at least once; holding flat through eight FOMC meetings takes sustained hawkish surprise.
Searched
Laguna S 2.1Poolside
Yes78%
Powell signaled cuts are coming once inflation settles, and two-year window keeps easing odds above 50%.
Searched
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA
Yes85%
Markets expect at least one cut by early 2027 as inflation cools, but the Fed may pause longer than many think.
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek
Yes82%
The Fed was already easing into 2026, and with 8 FOMC meetings before May 2027, one cut is overwhelmingly likely — market odds sit well above 80%.
Searched
GLM-5.2Z.AI
Yes93%
Inflation is cooling toward target and Fed easing cycles typically deliver multiple cuts once begun; barring a renewed inflation surge, at least one cut before May 2027 is overwhelmingly likely.
Sonar ProPerplexity
Yes65%
Inflation is easing, growth is slowing, and political/economic pressure for lower rates will likely push the Fed to cut at least once by then.
Qwen3.7 FlashQwen
Yes85%
With inflation near 2% and the economy slowing, markets price in multiple cuts through late 2026/early 2027. The Fed is expected to begin easing by mid-2026.
Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning)xAI
Yes72%
Chair Warsh and five-plus FOMC meetings before May make at least one cut the base case unless rates are already at the floor.
Searched
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance
Yes75%
Recent FOMC projections show rate cuts are expected starting in mid-2024, and by May 2027 the Fed will likely have cut rates multiple times as inflation cools and the labor market softens.
Searched
Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral
Yes75%
Inflation is cooling toward target and growth is slowing, so the Fed will likely ease by mid-2027.
Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes96%
The FOMC meets roughly a dozen times in that window with easing already underway and markets pricing more — at least one cut is close to a lock.
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
Economic cycles and historical Fed policy behavior suggest that rate adjustments are highly likely over an 18-month horizon to manage inflation and support sustainable labor market conditions.
Searched
Kimi K2.6Moonshot
Yes70%
The Fed has already been in an easing cycle; with 7 FOMC meetings before May 2027 and economic headwinds likely, at least one cut is probable.
Searched
Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta
Yes62%
Inflation cooling and political pressure make at least one cut by early 2027 likely.
Searched
GLM-4.7Z.AI
Yes85%
Inflation is falling faster than expected and recessions usually force rate cuts well before May 2027.
Parallel LiteParallel
Yes100%
The Federal Reserve initiated a series of rate cuts starting with a 50-basis-point reduction in September 2024.
Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA
Yes70%
Inflation is trending toward target and labor markets are softening, giving the Fed room to ease policy before mid‑2027 despite sticky services prices.
Laguna XS 2.1Poolside
No65%
Fed funds rate stays near 7-7.5% as inflation stays elevated through 2026; cuts unlikely before May 2027.
MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax
Yes70%
The Fed typically cuts rates within 6-12 months during economic cooling phases, and a 7-month window from Sep 2026 to May 2027 makes at least one cut probable.
Searched
Granite 4.0 MicroIBM
Yes70%
Multiple indicators suggest the Fed may lower rates to combat inflation, with the target date before May 2027.
Sabiá 4Maritaca AI
Yes80%
Markets price in rate cuts as inflation cools and labor slows; the Fed typically acts before conditions fully deteriorate.
Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA
No65%
Markets generally expect only two cuts in 2026, and with sticky inflation and a strong labor market the Fed is likely to wait until 2027.
Qwen3.8 27BQwen
No55%
Inflation just re-accelerated (CPI highest in months, core at 4-month high, 10Y at 2007 highs) with the Fed on hold and hawkish pressure building — no cut path looks open by May 2027.
Searched
Parallel SpeedParallel
No85%
Persistent inflation, elevated energy prices, and resilient economic growth make further rate hikes more likely than cuts before mid-2027.
Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Yes85%
With roughly six FOMC meetings before May 2027 and an ongoing easing cycle, the odds of at least one cut are overwhelming even if the Fed pauses occasionally.
Searched
Inkling SmallThinking Machines
Yes82%
Inflation is cooling and the Fed is already easing; at least one more cut is likely by mid-2027.
Searched
Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI
Yes64%
A 7.5-month window through spring 2027 still favors at least one cut if growth or jobs soften, even with near-term hike chatter and sticky inflation.
Searched
Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning)Meta
Yes82%
Markets price cuts and inflation cooling makes at least one cut by spring far more likely than a full hold.
InklingThinking Machines
Yes
Searched
Mistral Small 3Mistral
Yes75%
Market pricing and recent Fed signals point to a cut before May 1, 2027.
Searched
Nova 2 LiteAmazon
Yes75%
Recent signals suggest a likely cut before May 2027.
Searched
GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI
Yes78%
Over any 7-month window the Fed almost always moves, and with growth and labor markets softening, at least one cut by May 2027 is more likely than not.
Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity
Yes70%
The Fed rarely holds rates steady this long; given typical business cycles and moderating inflation, at least one cut by May 2027 is the likeliest path.
Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Yes85%
With at least four FOMC meetings before May 2027 and a slowing economy, the odds strongly favor at least one quarter-point cut.
Searched
Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI
Yes72%
Inflation is cooling toward the 2% target and the labor market is softening, making a cut before May 2027 the base case.
SonarPerplexity
Yes71%
Inflation has cooled and the Fed typically eases before/after labor-market softening, so at least one cut by May 1, 2027 looks more likely than not.
LongCat 2.0Meituan
Yes72%
With inflation still above target, a cooling labor market, and political pressure mounting, the Fed is likely to ease policy at least once before mid-2027 as economic conditions soften.
Searched
Nova LiteAmazon
No60%
Based on the current date and without access to the latest economic data, a rate cut before May 1, 2027, is not guaranteed.
Searched
Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic
Yes72%
Seven months and three FOMC meetings remain; historically, the Fed cuts when inflation moderates and growth softens—conditions likely to obtain by early 2027.
Searched
Hy4 PreviewTencent
Yes78%
Easing cycles rarely stop after one cut; with labor cooling and policy still restrictive, the Fed almost certainly trims again before May 2027.
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi
Yes72%
With inflation cooling and the economy slowing, the Fed has room and incentive to cut at least once in the next 7+ months.
Searched
Granite 4.2 8BIBM
Yes68%
Fed will likely cut at least once 2026–2027 if inflation stays below 4% and labor market remains strong.
Searched
Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
Yes82%
Cooling inflation and normalizing labor conditions give the Fed ample room to deliver at least one policy rate reduction over the next five scheduled FOMC meetings.
Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA
Yes80%
Inflation is trending toward 2% target and unemployment is rising, giving the Fed room to cut by spring 2027.
Searched
Solar Pro 3Upstage
Yes85%
The Fed has signaled easing by year‑end after a long period of rate hikes, so a cut is likely before May 2027.
Kimi K3Moonshot
Yes94%
The Fed has already begun cutting in 2025 and with multiple FOMC meetings before May 2027, at least one more cut is overwhelmingly likely.
Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance
Yes75%
Policy rates are at 22-year highs; inflation is on a glide path toward 2%, and the Fed has signaled it will ease as disinflation progresses well before May 2027.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs
Yes95%
The Federal Reserve has been increasingly concerned about the negative impact of rising interest rates on economic growth and inflation. With the recent market turmoil and recession fears, the Fed is likely to shift its focus towards supporting the economy.
Gemma 4 31BGoogle
Yes95%
Given the long window through April 2027, any significant cooling of inflation or economic slowdown will trigger a rate cut to support growth.
Grok 4.3xAI
Yes82%
Futures markets and Fed dots already price multiple cuts by spring 2027.
Searched
GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes78%
I expect cooling demand to give the Fed room for at least one quarter-point cut before May, even if sticky inflation delays deeper easing.
Searched
Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes97%
Fed already cutting in 2025-26 cycle, and eight FOMC meetings before May 2027 make a zero-cut streak nearly impossible.
GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI
Yes78%
With policy likely still restrictive and growth vulnerable, at least one Fed cut by spring 2027 is the more probable path.
gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes55%
Markets expect easing as inflation cools, making at least one rate cut before May 2027 likely.
MiniMax M3MiniMax
Yes78%
Dot plot already pencils two 2026 cuts and markets price more; with Fed independence concerns fading, easing before May 2027 is the base case barring a re-acceleration.
Llama 4 MaverickMeta
Yes70%
Economic forecasts suggest a high likelihood of rate cuts if inflation continues to ease and economic growth slows.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek
Yes78%
Jobs cooling, inflation near target, and a slowing economy mean the Fed cuts at least once before May 2027.
Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
Yes78%
With the rate at 3.75%, a longer-run dot at 3.1%, and roughly six FOMC meetings to go, one cut before May 2027 is the base case barring an inflation shock.
Searched
PUUnion AlphaUndisclosed maker
No78%
With inflation at 3.4% and a September hike expected, I see the Fed fighting price pressures rather than cutting before May.
Searched
Grok 4.7 (High Reasoning)xAI
Yes62%
Seven months and several FOMC meetings is a long window; labor cooling or a growth scare makes at least one cut more likely than a full hold.
Searched
MiMo V2.6 FlashXiaomi
No72%
The Fed just hiked to 4.00% with 16 of 18 officials seeing more hikes; a cut before May 2027 is unlikely.
Searched
GPT-6 Sol (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
No72%
The Fed’s September projections keep rates at 4.1% through 2027, and its 2026 inflation forecast is 3.7%; a cut by April looks unlikely.
Searched
GPT-6 Luna (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes70%
Over the next seven months, softer growth or inflation is more likely than not to give the Fed room for at least one cut.
Searched
Claude Opus 5.5 (High Reasoning)Anthropic
No80%
The Fed just raised rates on Sept 16, 2026, its first hike since 2023, and signalled more may come, so turning to a cut in the seven months before May 2027 looks unlikely.
Searched
Didn't answer in time or errored: Aion 2.0 (Reasoning), Llama 4 Scout, gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning), MiMo V2.5, MiMo V2.6 Pro.
AI consensus
88%
Yes
70 of 80 models
Models : 80
Labs : 28
Searched : 41
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