Will the Fed raise rates this week? 76 AI models predict the result
We put "Will the Fed raise rates this week?" to 76 AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek…) at the same time. See every model's answer with its name on it, who searched the web first, and who went against the room.
← We asked every AILive · 76/79 models
PredictionEconomy· Wed, Sep 16
Will the Fed raise rates this week?
Asked verbatim: “The US Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Inflation has risen roughly a percentage point since the Iran war began. What does the Fed do to the federal funds rate?”
How the AIs voted
One dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.
59%Raise
45 models
38%Hold
29 models
3%Cut
2 models
By lab
- Google6 / 6 Raise
- OpenAI1 / 6 Raise
- Qwen2 / 5 Raise
- Z.AI2 / 5 Raise
- Aion Labs3 / 4 Raise
- Anthropic2 / 4 Raise
- 21 other labs29 / 46 Raise
76 of 79 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
How the consensus formed
Running share as each of the 79 models answered.
The read
Most models split, with a slight edge for Raise (~40) over Hold (~33), arguing an oil-driven inflation spike forces the Fed to defend credibility; only a few, like Inkling and Muse Spark 1.2, dissented with a Cut, citing labor market weakness outweighing the supply shock.
Written by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.
Every answer
76 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek
Hold62%
An oil-shock inflation spike with the economy softening is textbook stagflation — the Fed's path of least regret is to sit tight and talk tough.
Searched
Llama 4 ScoutMeta
Raise80%
Inflation rise prompts tightening.
Parallel SpeedParallel
Raise90%
Persistent energy inflation driven by the Iran war and hot consumer price data necessitate a 25-basis-point hike to defend the 2% target.
GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Hold82%
A one-point inflation rebound blocks a cut, but hiking into a war-driven supply shock risks compounding the damage; holding is the strongest bet.
Searched
Laguna S 2.1Poolside
Raise75%
A full percentage-point inflation spike since the Iran war is exactly the kind of threat the Fed answers with rate hikes.
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi
Raise65%
Inflation up a full point from a war shock with the rate at 3.75% forces the Fed's hand — they'll hike to 4% to re-anchor expectations.
Searched
Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI
Raise78%
Inflation surge forces the Fed to hike to anchor expectations despite war risks.
- GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI
Hold68%
A supply-driven inflation surge raises stagflation risks, so the Fed likely waits for clearer persistence before tightening.
Searched
Qwen3.7 FlashQwen
Raise95%
A 1% inflation spike from war requires the Fed to hike rates aggressively to anchor expectations and prevent a wage-price spiral.
Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral
Raise85%
Inflation spike from geopolitical shock forces Fed to tighten despite growth risks.
Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic
Raise62%
A 1-point inflation spike from geopolitical shock typically triggers Fed tightening to prevent expectations from destabilizing, though the magnitude depends on baseline inflation and growth conditions not fully specified.
Searched
Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Raise75%
A full-point inflation spike from a war shock demands the Fed tighten to keep expectations anchored, not sit still or ease.
Searched
- Laguna XS 2.1Poolside
Hold75%
Fed maintains restrictive stance as inflation pressures mount from Iran conflict, signaling watchful waiting before further action.
Searched
Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI
Raise62%
A full-point inflation jump from an Iran war oil shock forces the Fed to hike to defend credibility and pin expectations, not look through it.
Searched
- Mistral Small 3Mistral
Raise90%
Rising inflation from geopolitical shock pressures the Fed to tighten to defend price stability.
Searched
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance
Raise78%
Higher inflation from Iran war-related su
…
How the consensus formed
Running share as each of the 79 models answered.
Every answer
Every answer 76 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length. DeepSeek V4.1 Flash DeepSeek Hold 62 % An oil-shock inflation spike with the economy softening is textbook stagflation — the Fed's path of least regret is to sit tight and talk tough. Searched Llama 4 Scout Meta Raise 80 % Inflation rise prompts tightening. Parallel Speed Parallel Raise 90 % Persistent energy inflation driven by the Iran war and hot consumer price data necessitate a 25-basis-point hike to defend the 2% target. GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning) OpenAI Hold 82 % A one-point inflation rebound blocks a cut, but hiking into a war-driven supply shock risks compounding the damage; holding is the strongest bet. Searched Laguna S 2.1 Poolside Raise 75 % A full percentage-point inflation spike since the I…
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