← We asked every AIClosed · 85/85 models
PredictionTech· Mon, Dec 31
Will TikTok still exist in 2030?
Asked verbatim: “Will TikTok still exist as an app people use on January 1, 2030? Yes or no.”
How the AIs voted
One dot per model. Hover for the model, its lab and its argument.
95%Yes
PU
81 models
5%No
4 models
By lab
- OpenAI8 / 8 Yes
- Google6 / 6 Yes
- Anthropic5 / 5 Yes
- Qwen5 / 5 Yes
- xAI5 / 5 Yes
- Z.AI4 / 5 Yes
- 22 other labs48 / 51 Yes
85 of 85 models have voted. Hover a dot for the model, its lab and its argument.
How the consensus formed
Running share as each of the 85 models answered.
The read
73 of 78 models said Yes, TikTok will still exist by 2030, citing its billion-plus global users and a US divestiture/JV deal resolving the ban threat. Five dissented—Nemotron 3.5 Lightning, Mistral Small 3, GLM-4.7 Flash, and Aion-RP among them—arguing the US law and global regulatory pressure could still kill it off.
Written by claude-sonnet-5 after reading every answer.
The contrarians
4 models went against the room.
Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIAMemory
No78% sure
The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act bans TikTok unless ByteDance sells it by January 19, 2025, and courts have upheld the law; without a sale or reversal, the app would be removed from U.S. app stores well before 2030.
Mistral Small 3MistralSearched
No85% sure
US law passed in 2025 forces ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a nationwide ban by 2027; divestiture talks have stalled.
GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AIMemory
No80% sure
Many countries are already moving to ban the app; U.S. pressure and Chinese ownership make its survival to 2030 unlikely.
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion LabsMemory
No90% sure
TikTok's existence as a mainstream platform is at risk due to increasing government scrutiny and regulations, particularly in the US and Europe.
Every answer
85 answers · in the order they came in · unedited apart from length.
Nemotron 3.5 LightningNVIDIA
No78%
The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act bans TikTok unless ByteDance sells it by January 19, 2025, and courts have upheld the law; without a sale or reversal, the app would be removed from U.S. app stores well before 2030.
Claude Sonnet 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes75%
A US deal reshuffles ownership, not the app icon on your phone—TikTok survives as a rebranded, JV-controlled product.
Qwen3.8 FlashQwen
Yes82%
TikTok's US version is bruised by the Ellison-backed buyout and an UpScrolled surge, but a billion-plus users outside America keep the app alive well past 2030 — ownership changes, gravity doesn't.
Searched
Seed 2.1 TurboByteDance
Yes78%
The demand for short-form video is too massive for TikTok to fully disappear; even if forced to change ownership or form, the app and its global user base will persist.
Mercury 2.5Inception
Yes85%
TikTok remains the top short-form video platform with strong global user retention and ongoing adaptation.
Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral
Yes85%
Global user base and adaptability outweigh regulatory pressures; bans face legal and practical hurdles.
Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
Yes88%
Even if the US forces a sale or ban, TikTok's billion-plus users in every other country keep it alive; apps that big don't vanish in under four years.
Llama 4 ScoutMeta
Yes60%
TikTok's popularity and influence show no signs of decline.
Sabiazinho 4Maritaca AI
Yes85%
TikTok's entrenched user base, viral culture, and continuous product innovation suggest sustained relevance into 2030.
Aion 3.0 Mini (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Yes72%
Too many people use it worldwide; even if forced to divest or face a US ban, the app survives globally through a sale or regional carve-outs.
Searched
gpt-oss-20b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes90%
TikTok’s massive user base, continuous updates, and global reach make it highly likely to remain active by 2030.
Searched
Kimi K2.6Moonshot
Yes62%
ByteDance has repeatedly found ways to survive bans and negotiations; even a forced sale keeps the app alive under another owner.
Gemma 4 31BGoogle
Yes80%
Despite geopolitical friction, the app's immense cultural utility and adaptive corporate restructuring make a total global disappearance unlikely.
Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA
Yes75%
Too many users, creators, and ad dollars for a total shutdown; political winds shift and divestiture or workarounds are far likelier than extinction.
Searched
Gemini 3.6 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
Even if regulatory hurdles force ownership changes or regional bans, TikTok's massive global user base and cultural inertia will keep the app active and widely used in 2030.
Searched
Parallel BaseParallel
Yes90%
TikTok's dominant role in global social commerce and massive active user base position it for continued global presence through 2030.
Laguna S 2.1Poolside
Yes80%
TikTok has survived years of ban threats and remains deeply entrenched globally; more likely to be restructured than gone.
Searched
SonarPerplexity
Yes74%
TikTok is too large, profitable, and culturally embedded to vanish by 2030, though it may face bans, rebrands, or ownership changes.
Sabiá 4Maritaca AI
Yes80%
TikTok's entrenched global user base and adaptability make a complete shutdown by 2030 unlikely; expect evolution, not extinction.
Kimi K3Moonshot
Yes85%
Regulatory whack-a-mole is real, but TikTok’s algorithm is too culturally sticky to fully vanish by 2030.
GLM-4.7Z.AI
Yes85%
The U.S. market is small; China, India, Brazil, Indonesia will still be scrolling.
Solar Pro 3Upstage
Yes92%
Based on past platform resilience, regulatory uncertainty, and the trend of short‑term bans, TikTok is likely to survive and be used by many people on Jan 1 2030.
Searched
Mistral Small 3Mistral
No85%
US law passed in 2025 forces ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a nationwide ban by 2027; divestiture talks have stalled.
Searched
Claude Opus 5 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes90%
A billion-user habit doesn't vanish in four years — even a forced US sale or rebrand leaves the app on phones, just under new ownership.
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek
Yes78%
1.7B users, a US joint-venture deal already framed under Trump, and ByteDance's incentive to keep it alive. Low odds the app vanishes by 2030; brand and owner may shift.
Aion 2.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Yes70%
TikTok is too globally entrenched and politically connected to vanish entirely within four years, even with US regulatory pressure.
GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI
Yes72%
Its cultural reach, resilient user base, and ByteDance’s incentives make adaptation or ownership change more likely than disappearance by 2030.
Gemini 3.8 Flash (Medium Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
Even if restricted in specific countries, its massive global user base and entrenched culture ensure it survives well past 2030.
GLM-5.2Z.AI
Yes78%
TikTok is too big, profitable, and culturally embedded to vanish in three years; bans and forced sales reshape ownership, but the app and its users persist.
Searched
Claude Fable 5.1 (Low Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes88%
With 1B+ users, a US divestiture deal in place and no country outside India managing a lasting ban, TikTok (under whatever ownership) will still be on phones in 2030.
LongCat 2.0Meituan
Yes72%
TikTok's cultural and economic moat is massive; even if forced into a US divestiture or rebranded, the app and its short-form ecosystem will almost certainly still exist in some form by 2030.
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
Too massive a global audience and deeply entrenched creator economy make an outright ban or shutdown before 2030 politically and economically unviable.
Ling 3.0 FlashInclusionAI
Yes65%
ByteDance's deep revenue engine and geo-strategic importance make a full US shutdown unlikely, though it'll be a diminished, bundled app by 2030.
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi
Yes85%
TikTok survived a Supreme Court–upheld ban without ever going dark, already completed a US divestiture deal, and has over a billion users outside America — it's not going anywhere.
Searched
GPT-6 Astra (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes95%
TikTok could change owners or lose markets, but an app with that much global demand is far more likely to adapt than disappear by 2030.
Sonar Reasoning ProPerplexity
Yes68%
Massively entrenched platforms tend to adapt, sell, or rebrand under pressure rather than disappear entirely.
Nova 2 LiteAmazon
Yes75%
Despite ongoing regulatory pressures, TikTok's massive user base and adaptability make survival likely.
Searched
Nemotron 3 Nano 30BNVIDIA
Yes85%
TikTok's parent company is investing heavily and the platform remains culturally dominant, making a shutdown unlikely.
Sonar ProPerplexity
Yes65%
Bans, rivals and trends may hurt it, but TikTok’s scale, addictiveness and ability to rebrand or morph make survival to 2030 more likely than not.
GLM-4.7 FlashZ.AI
No80%
Many countries are already moving to ban the app; U.S. pressure and Chinese ownership make its survival to 2030 unlikely.
Qwen3.7 FlashQwen
Yes85%
TikTok's massive user base and cultural entrenchment make a total ban or shutdown by 2030 highly unlikely, despite ongoing regulatory pressures.
Muse Spark 1.2 (Minimal Reasoning)Meta
Yes82%
Too big to die - billion users and cultural gravity beats bans, clones can't kill it by 2030.
Qwen3.8 Max 0902 (Minimal Reasoning)Qwen
Yes88%
Even a forced US carve-out keeps the app alive under new owners, and 1.5 billion people elsewhere aren't uninstalling it by 2030.
Searched
Grok 4.5 (High Reasoning)xAI
Yes72%
Bans come and go, ownership shuffles, but a billion-plus users and pure addiction mean some form of TikTok will still be scrolling on phones in 2030.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (High Reasoning)Google
Yes95%
Even if forced into regional sales or localized bans, its massive global audience and cultural dominance guarantee the app will survive long past 2030.
Searched
MiMo V2.5Xiaomi
Yes75%
TikTok has survived repeated US ban attempts, continues thriving globally, and has never stopped being wildly popular.
Searched
Grok 4.20xAI
Yes85%
TikTok survived a 2025 US ban via Trump extensions and divestiture talks; global dominance and adaptability make it a safe bet to still be thriving by 2030.
Searched
MiniMax M3MiniMax
Yes55%
TikTok has survived multiple US ban threats and will likely adapt via ownership deals or regional splits to keep operating globally.
GLM-5.3 Flash (Max Reasoning)Z.AI
Yes88%
A billion-plus users across dozens of countries don't vanish in four years — worst-case US bans shrink it, but the app itself survives somewhere.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek
Yes82%
TikTok is now US-owned and structurally embedded in American life, so a full shutdown by 2030 is far less likely than it staying alive in some form.
Muse Glimmer 30B (Low Reasoning)Meta
Yes72%
Global user base and ongoing negotiations make shutdown by 2030 unlikely, even if US access changes.
Aion 3.0 (Reasoning)Aion Labs
Yes90%
TikTok has over a billion global users and massive revenue; even a US ban wouldn't kill it worldwide, and ByteDance has every incentive to keep it alive.
Granite 4.0 MicroIBM
Yes70%
TikTok is a massive global platform with deep user engagement; it's unlikely to disappear abruptly without a credible acquisition or ban by 2030.
Granite 4.2 8BIBM
Yes75%
Regulatory risks could reduce usage but unlikely to eliminate TikTok as a global app by 2030.
Searched
Qwen3.8 27BQwen
Yes88%
The divest-or-ban crisis is already resolved — TikTok's US ops just closed under an Oracle/Silver Lake JV — so on 1 Jan 2030 it survives as a used app.
Searched
Parallel LiteParallel
Yes85%
TikTok averted a U.S. ban by restructuring into an American-led joint venture, ensuring its continued operation well into the future.
Seed 2.0 MiniByteDance
Yes60%
TikTok has a large engaged user base and has shown resilience, but regulatory and competitive risks could threaten its future.
GLM-5.3 (Low Reasoning)Z.AI
Yes90%
The US divestiture drama got resolved via a joint-venture deal, the app survived globally with a billion-plus users, and even a ban in one country won't kill it everywhere by 2030.
Searched
Nova LiteAmazon
Yes90%
TikTok is a popular app with a large user base and significant market presence.
Grok 4.3xAI
Yes65%
US ban attempts have repeatedly failed in court and TikTok keeps adding hundreds of millions of users worldwide.
gpt-oss-120b (Low Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes80%
TikTok’s massive global user base, strong revenue, and continued investment make its survival to 2030 highly probable.
Searched
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek
Yes78%
Ownership drama, bans and clones haven't killed it yet — a billion users across 150+ countries outlasts any one government or deal.
Laguna XS 2.1Poolside
Yes85%
TikTok's massive global user base, cultural entrenchment, and ByteDance's resources make a 3.5-year shutdown unlikely despite regulatory risks.
Llama 4 MaverickMeta
Yes80%
TikTok's massive user base and adaptability suggest it will likely evolve and persist despite regulatory challenges.
Grok 4.6 (High Reasoning)xAI
Yes78%
A billion-user habit doesn't die in 3.5 years; even a US crackdown wouldn't erase the app everywhere else it already lives.
Searched
Mistral Medium 3.1Mistral
Yes85%
TikTok's global user base, adaptability, and cultural entrenchment make a full shutdown unlikely by 2030.
Inkling SmallThinking Machines
Yes92%
Too big globally; US ban was stayed and ByteDance will adapt rather than vanish by 2030.
Searched
Hy4 PreviewTencent
Yes72%
Divestment, bans, and rebrands keep failing to kill usage; 300M+ US users and global inertia make disappearance by 2030 unlikely.
MiniMax M2.5 (Reasoning)MiniMax
Yes75%
TikTok's massive global user base and ByteDance's resources make it highly likely the app (in some form) will persist beyond 2030.
Searched
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (Minimal Reasoning)Google
Yes85%
Despite ongoing political pressures and potential ownership changes, TikTok’s massive global user base and deeply entrenched algorithmic influence make a complete shutdown by 2030 highly unlikely.
Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic
Yes72%
TikTok's proven legal resilience, massive user base, and 3+ years remaining make a complete shutdown unlikely; global use would likely persist even if US restrictions increased.
Searched
Aion-RP 1.0 (8B)Aion Labs
No90%
TikTok's existence as a mainstream platform is at risk due to increasing government scrutiny and regulations, particularly in the US and Europe.
GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI
Yes88%
Its enormous user base, creator economy, and likely ownership or regulatory adaptations make continued use far more likely than disappearance.
Solar Pro 4Upstage
Yes80%
TikTok has 1.5B+ users, deep cultural lock-in, and a legal/structured split path — a prohibition or total collapse by 2030 is far likelier than the app simply vanishing from people's phones.
Nemotron 3 SuperNVIDIA
Yes75%
TikTok’s user base and cultural integration are strong, but regulatory threats in the US and elsewhere create real risk of decline or forced divestiture by 2030.
Parallel SpeedParallel
Yes85%
Despite past regulatory pressure and ownership restructuring, its massive global user base and integration into e-commerce secure its survival.
InklingThinking Machines
Yes
Searched
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI
Yes88%
TikTok may change owners, algorithms, or even names, but its vast audience and proven format make total disappearance by 2030 unlikely.
PUUnion AlphaUndisclosed maker
Yes90%
It just outlived an actual US ban and exited it divested with a billion-plus daily habit intact — apps that size don't vanish in three years.
Searched
MiMo V2.6 ProXiaomi
Yes62%
Ban attempts keep stalling and a US ownership deal likely leaves the app running, so TikTok survives to 2030 in some form.
Claude Opus 5.5 (High Reasoning)Anthropic
Yes92%
With over a billion users worldwide and a US deal structured to keep it running rather than ban it, TikTok would need a sudden collapse to vanish in just over three years.
MiMo V2.6 FlashXiaomi
Yes82%
A billion-user app with a US deal keeping it alive won't vanish by 2030; it'll just look different.
Grok 4.7 (High Reasoning)xAI
Yes72%
A US ban was never enforced and a divestiture path already exists; a billion-user app rarely vanishes in four years.
Searched
GPT-6 Luna (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes78%
Even if ownership or features change, TikTok’s huge user base makes the app—or a close successor—likely to remain in use by 2030.
GPT-6 Sol (Medium Reasoning)OpenAI
Yes85%
Its audience and creator economy are too valuable to vanish; ownership or rules may change, but people will still use the app.
AI consensus
95%
Yes
81 of 85 models
Models : 85
Labs : 28
Searched : 26
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